Archive for Head to Head

These were fun. I usually just say crazy things to my friends and when one of them is true, try to remind them about it and they usually don’t care because they have lives that involve things outside of baseball. Losers. Anyway, here is my initial Bold Predictions article along with my midseason review where a few of my colleagues and myself were so impatient, we had to see where we stood. My goal was to bat .300, so let’s see if I was able to hit my mark. Then laugh at all the ones I was terribly wrong on.

1.) Chris Carter will break 100 R.B.I.

This was the prediction I felt most confident about going into the midseason review and I came very close to nailing this one as Carter ended up with 94 RBI Coming into the season, I really felt strong about Carter having a strong season because of opportunity and how he closed out the 2015 season. He hit 41 HRs and had a wRC+ of 114, so I’d say his season was a success and the spirit of this prediction was pretty spot on. I didn’t account for the Brewers trading away Jonathan Lucroy, which maybe could’ve accounted for another 6 RBI? To be fair, I also didn’t think Jonathan Villar would have the type of season he did and that certainly gave Carter more RBI opportunities than anticipated.

Since I am going to be struggling to find hits with these other predictions, I am going to give myself the every-so-common half a hit. Trust me, it will not help my batting average too much.

0.5 for 1

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It’s that time of year again where we look ourselves in the mirror and admit defeat.  Some of these predictions are pretty ugly.

Disclaimer: these projections are were bold (at least they’re supposed to be), and most are made in the context of Ottoneu fantasy baseball.

1) Yangervis Solarte will outscore Rougned Odor in 2016.

From a Roto standpoint, Odor was the better player in 2016, breaking out for a .271 AVG with 33 HR and 14 SB’s.  This prediction was made in the context of Ottoneu however, and it’s wOBA-weighted scoring format didn’t love Odor nearly as much.  Looking back, this prediction now just appears to be poorly worded, since Odor (818 points, 150 games) outscored Solarte (570 in 109) by nearly 250 points, almost entirely with the benefit of a healthier season.  Solarte (2.5 WAR, 118 wRC+, .346 wOBA) was the superior player to Odor (2.1 WAR, 106 wRC+, .336 wOBA) in almost every other advanced offensive metric, so this one was kinda close.

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Did my bold predictions crash and burn again? Yes. But did they actually lead to some good fantasy advice this time? Possibly!

Previous bold predictions reviews: 2015, 2014

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This will be my final starting pitcher streamers article of the season and sadly, my final article of the regular season. So if you’re in the thick of the championship run, let’s take a gander at some of the starting pitchers you should consider streaming that are likely to be available in your league.

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Over the course of the last three weeks, I have explored different ethical and strategic questions posed to me via email and social media. It has been a fun series to write, but now we have reached it’s conclusion for the 2016 regular season. I hope to make this a reoccurring series next season. So, whenever I can get enough questions and/or scenarios for a full piece I will write up my answers. Some people really enjoyed this series. Others hated it and the answers I gave, but it made for interesting discussions within the comment sections. I would label that a success. Feel free to send me more questions at JustinMasonFantasy@gmail.com or on twitter @JustinMasonFWFB and when I have enough, I will do an offseason installment. Thanks for playing along! Read the rest of this entry »

Friday brings a full slate of games, including a ton in which lesser owned pitchers are scheduled to start. Rather than discuss each one, I’ll instead just discuss those worthy of streaming.

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If you’re in a fierce battle in the wins or strikeouts categories, or both, you are no doubt considering streaming pitchers if your league uses daily transactions. So let’s take a look at the pitchers owned in less than 50% of CBS leagues who are scheduled to start on Thursday and determine who warrants a pickup and who’s at risk of destroying your ratios.

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I’d say the easiest category to make up ground in the final week is stolen bases. They could come in bunches and it’s easy to identify the players that contribute in the category. Often times speedsters are sitting on free agency as they contribute little else outside the steals. But heading into the final week of the season, you might not care about the other categories, just getting those three extra steals that will gain you a point or two. So here are five lesser owned named that are likely available and could give you that jolt you may need.

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As I sometimes do when searching for a topic, I decided to scan the last 30 day K% leaderboard among AL starting pitchers to see if any surprises sit near the top. Sure enough, one name stood out — Daniel Norris, who ranked sixth with a 27.7% mark. This is a guy who had posted strong strikeout rates in the minors, has sometimes struggled with his control, but the strikeout ability didn’t translate to the Majors last year in 13 starts. As I’ve done with a couple of pitchers previously, let’s compared the relevant metrics during his 2015 season, first four appearances this year, and his eight starts since being recalled and returning to the Tigers rotation on August 9th.

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Seattle’s Edwin Diaz was called on for the four-out save and was tasked with facing the heart of Toronto’s line-up. After striking out Josh Donaldson to end the 8th, he then struck out Edwin Encarnacion to start the 9th and had to face Jose Bautista with a one-run lead. Well, Bautista took him deep for his second blown save of the season and the first earned run he had given up since August 30th when he blew his first save against Texas as well. The Mariners would win in the bottom of the 12th taking Diaz off the hook as Nick Vincent got his fourth win and R.A. Dickey gave up an unearned run to suffer his 15th loss.

Jeurys Familia suffered his fifth blown save of the season, although it was not your traditional one out save. With two on and one out in the 8th, Familia was called on for the 5-out save. After a double steal put two runners in scoring position and the Braves down by one, Matt Kemp would hit a sacrifice fly to tie the game, even though the run was unearned for set-up man Addison Reed as the runner, Ender Inciarte, reached on an error by James Loney. Familia would get out of the inning and come on for the 9th, when the Braves scored with two singles, a sac bunt, and a fielder’s choice. The game was not over as Jim Johnson came on in the 9th for the Braves looking for the sweep. After giving up a hit and a walk, with two outs Yoenis Cespedes stepped up to the plate and ripped one to deep center that looked like it was gone and would’ve given the Mets the dramatic win. Inciarte, however, would strike again and robbed Cespedes of a homer to secure Johnson’s 17th save.

Quick Hits: With Ken Giles unavailable after pitching two straight days, Luke Gregerson came on for his first save opportunity since July 6th. He gave up an unearned run, but managed to hold on for the save (15). Daniel Hudson held on for the 4-out save (4) in Arizona. Andrew Bailey (4), Tony Watson (15), and Cody Allen (15) all earned saves tonight, with Allen giving up a run in the 9th.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]