Judging from my twitter comments, it looks like there’s a window of opportunity for those of you that want to buy Kevin Gausman, for this year or for your keeper teams. But we know that Gausman has flaws. The question is: how likely is he to correct those flaws and become the fantasy superstar that his velocity and minor league record seems to suggest is possible?
It’s not cool to cheer for injuries, but for us dumpster-divers, well, sometimes guys getting hurt is what it takes to unearth opportunities. As it happens, the Diamondbacks have seen a couple of guys knocked to the sidelines in recent days, and while that’s unfortunate, we’d be remiss if we didn’t look at two players who are stepping up — both of whom have potential value in NL-only leagues.
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Rankings lists always result in a firestorm of comments as everyone values players differently. It’s hard enough to do such an exercise in the preseason, but in the middle of the season is even more difficult. How much do you weight such a small sample of performance when you have an entire body of work to analyze from a player? Is the skills change real or just a mirage? So like I did in the preseason, I’m going to compare my updated rankings with the rest of the crew. I removed my rankings from the consensus and then reordered it to get a truer picture of what the other guys are feeling. We’ll start with the catchers. I won’t include everyone, only the noteworthy names.
• Alex Avila sustained a mild concussion a few days ago.
Trainer Kevin Rand joined Ausmus in checking on Avila after Ortiz got him with his massive backswing, something he’s prone to doing. Rand asked the catcher a few questions to test for a concussion.
“He didn’t get one right,” Ausmus said. “When I had a concussion, I remember being asked particulars about the game and remembering I had to look at the scoreboard to figure out what the count was, and look in the dugout to figure out who we were playing.”
It seems and makes sense that catchers will be more concussion prone with foul balls and balls flying around their heads. So far this season, six players have gone on the DL for concussions and three have been catchers (Travis d’Arnaud, Carlos Santana, Jarrod Saltalamacchia) and the other three are outfielders (Denard Span, Aaron Hicks, Sam Fuld). I went back and looked at how many players went on the DL for concussions since the 7-day concussion DL was implemented in 2011. I didn’t just limit the search for just 7-day DL stints since a few players went immediately on the 15-day DL.
When you start ranking outfielders, all you can think about is how many there are. It seems impossible. And then something funny happens, somewhere in the 60s for me — you run out of ones you really want in your lineup. And then there’s a ton left, yes, but they’re all mix and match fantasy platoon outfielders. And they aren’t super easy on the eyes.
Trade season has begun for those of us in ottoneu leagues. In the last couple weeks, the following names have been sold in my ottoneu leagues: Robinson Cano, Clayton Kershaw, Yasiel Puig, and Craig Kimbrel, among others. Justin Upton, Madison Bumgarner, and others have been put on the block.
My guess is that your leagues are seeing the same thing and that means that it’s time to make a call – do I fight for first or is it time to sell? The first place to look is at the standings, but – particularly in ottoneu points leagues – that is not the only place to look.
While I am unsure if Kendrys Morales does indeed have a twin brother, I am sure that he is now the newest member of the Minnesota Twins baseball club organization team. After rumors swirled that teams like the Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Brewers and Royals had varying levels of interest, the Twins were never mentioned. But perhaps they were the mystery team that was supposedly in the mix.
Episode 126
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Thank you to special guest Derek Carty of Fantasy Insiders for joining Nicholas Minnix to discuss Kevin Gausman, Tony Cingrani and Mat Latos, the Rockies’ rotation with Jordan Lyles hitting the disabled list, the Orioles’ bullpen, the Indians’ bullpen, Travis d’Arnaud, Eugenio Suarez, Kendrys Morales to the Twins, Max Scherzer, Didi Gregorius, Gerrit Cole, Mitch Moreland, Matt Adams and the Cardinals’ pending roster crunch, and Nick Swisher.
As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have so that we may answer them on our next episode.
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Thankful to be able to contribute to another Bullpen Report after spending a few days away in the mountains with the in-laws. Truth be told, I’m actually still out here but have been out of the mix, so if I miss something crucial, pick me up in the comments…
Here are a few notes I was able to put together:
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Our own Dave Cameron wrote up the Jon Singleton signing and promotion on Monday. In the article, Cameron referenced Singleton’s battle with drug addiction. Singleton told The Associated Press (via ESPN.com) back in March, “At this point, it’s pretty evident to me that I’m a drug addict.”
So that’s pretty interesting, but plenty of people successfully combat addictions. The Astros aren’t necessarily wrong to give a long-term deal to an admitted drug addict, particularly when the deal has the potential to be extremely team-friendly if Singleton performs up to his reputation as a top prospect. You aren’t wrong for owning Singleton in fantasy or picking him up on the waiver wire now that he’s in the big leagues. If you are an Astros fan, you have reasons for optimism now with Singleton and George Springer joining Jose Altuve, Jason Castro, Dexter Fowler, and Matt Dominguez to form what is starting to look like a competent team after several long years in the abyss.
Where I became startled in reading about Singleton was when the ESPN.com article said:
He isn’t receiving treatment for his addiction, isn’t in a program and doesn’t have someone traveling with him to keep him on track.
Singleton is confident he can avoid further relapses by focusing on his opportunity, keeping better company and avoiding bad situations. He calls his life a work in progress and is focused on not being so hard on himself this season.
I don’t know what the statistics are on relapse avoidance for people in programs as opposed to out, but I can’t imagine the odds are in Singleton’s favor right now. I don’t know how many people reading this have addictions of their own or at least know someone who, like Singleton, is a self-admitted addict of some kind. I do know that human habits are extremely difficult to change, particularly a habit as serious as substance abuse.
I know this because last Sunday I thought to myself, “You know what? You’ve gotten pretty out of shape here. You should stop drinking once again and start exercising. Also, like Singleton, you shouldn’t be hard on yourself anymore!” Good thoughts, no? Then, on Tuesday night, one of my bosses offered to pick up our bar tab at a local watering hole and I thought to myself, “What kind of idiot turns down free drinks?” Sunday’s resolution to hope for change had failed miserably, as Tuesday night ended with a phone call to my attorney to get her to file a lawsuit against the fast food establishment which had me sick in my view of things.
Actually, since the readers here probably aren’t aspiring to be Gonzo journalists with a substance abuse solution to reality like the great Hunter “Pence” Thompson and this aspiring writer, let’s use a different example. Also on Sunday, I thought, “You should eat healthier, too.” And then Monday morning someone upset me at work and next think you know there’s a Chinese restaurant down the street and I’m there for some deep-fried sugary products of some kind that sure taste great but aren’t exactly “good” for you. The point here is that reality is always out there, cold and indifferent, ready to strike down our best intentions and return us to our worst habits.
Singleton might have better will power than I do, and let’s certainly hope so. We’d all hate for his story to end with him out of the game and feeling ill at a fast food restaurant. But perhaps willpower can only get you so far, and as habitual creatures, we need to be re-programmed to change those habits which need changing if we’re to have long-term success.
I seem to bring up Infinite Jest in each of these columns and that’s because I read all of the like 1,110 pages in that book and didn’t even get a trophy or an IQ bump, so I have to keep mentioning the fact that I read the book to feel better about myself and how I spend my time. Also, does any novel capture modern American society better than Infinite Jest? I can’t think of any. The themes of over-consumption, waste, addiction, compulsion, obsession, loneliness, and depression combine to paint a rather eery depiction of our arguably hollow society. On addiction, Wallace writes:
That most Substance-addicted people are also addicted to thinking, meaning they have a compulsive and unhealthy relationship with their own thinking…That 99% of compulsive thinkers’ thinking is about themselves; that 99% of this self-directed thinking consists of imagining and then getting ready for things that are going to happen to them; and then, weirdly, that if they stop to think about it, that 100% of the things they spend 99% of their time and energy imagining and trying to prepare for all the contingencies and consequences of are never good…In short that 99% of the head’s thinking activity consists of trying to scare the everliving [beep] out of itself.
In baseball, “Ninety percent of the game is half-mental.” In life, 100 percent of the game is half-mental or 100-percent mental.
Singleton has clearly been blessed with the physical tools to succeed as a ballplayer. He’s listed at 6’2″ and 255 pounds. He hit .279/.388/.466 during his minor league career after being selected in the 8th round of the 2009 draft. He’s been ranked as a top-100 prospect for four straight seasons, getting to as high as No. 25 on Baseball Prospectus’ list last year. He was a key piece in the trade that brought Hunter Pence over to the Phillies. He blasted a home run in his first game with Houston.
Yet those attributes and accomplishments aren’t all that unique at this level. What stands out about Singleton in comparison to other top prospects who’ve graduated to the show is his admission of drug addiction. Can he control his demons and reach the height of his ceiling, or will his mental activity drag him back down and limit what has the chance to be a great career?
The Astros have already made a bet on Singleton staying clean, and they should know more about him than anyone. Yet when it comes to the human psyche, there’s so much we don’t know, or perhaps it’s just that there’s so much we aren’t willing to admit.
Singleton is still a decent bet for fantasy owners and the executives in Houston. It’s just that in his case, he’s admitted his demons in a public manner, and since the information we have makes it sound as though he’s white-knuckling it, there is more risk associated with him than the typical prospect.
