Kendrys Morales is a Twin
While I am unsure if Kendrys Morales does indeed have a twin brother, I am sure that he is now the newest member of the Minnesota Twins baseball club organization team. After rumors swirled that teams like the Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Brewers and Royals had varying levels of interest, the Twins were never mentioned. But perhaps they were the mystery team that was supposedly in the mix.
For those who drafted Morales with the hopes that he would sign shortly after the season started, this was not the ideal destination. Three of the five teams above would have given Morales’ offensive projection a nice boost, while the other two were either the same as his team last year or just as pitcher friendly. Overall, Target Field in Minnesota is neutral, but it’s some of the specific park factors that hurts Morales’ value. Let’s check them out for both righties and lefties since Morales is a switch hitter and compare them to Safeco Field:
| Season | Team | Basic | 1B as L | 1B as R | 2B as L | 2B as R | 3B as L | 3B as R | HR as L | HR as R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Twins | 100 | 101 | 102 | 100 | 103 | 100 | 105 | 89 | 97 |
| 2013 | Mariners | 100 | 101 | 99 | 103 | 103 | 100 | 108 | 96 | 97 |
After playing around with the fences in Seattle, the park has become more neutral. Both play exactly neutral in terms of runs scored. The two parks are also identical in allowing singles to lefties, while Target Field is a bit friendlier to righties in that department. Seattle provides a small advantage in doubles to lefties, while the parks are the same for righties. Morales has hit four triples his entire career, so those park factors are rather meaningless.
The big problem arises when we get to the end of the table — the home runs. Bringing the fences in pushed Safeco Field into much more neutral territory. And while Target Field played the same last year for righties, it significantly saps lefty home run power. Since Morales will get the majority of his at-bats as a left-handed hitter, that’s a serious problem.
His xHR/FB rate last year was above his actual mark, and his batted ball distance was actually higher in 2013 than 2012, yet his HR/FB rate tanked. Ignoring the effects of his new digs, I would have expected some bounceback. But Target Field is likely going to take a bit out of any rebound. I think a smaller jump, perhaps to around his career HR/FB rate, might be in the cards.
Possibly just as important though is getting his fly ball rate back into true power hitter range. In his first full season in 2009, his fly ball rate was above 40%, but since, it has peaked at just 32.5%, and actually sat below 30% in 2012. There’s simply no chance he could possibly reach a 30 home run pace given the low fly ball rate.
There’s been no word yet exactly where Morales will bat in the Twins lineup, but you have to assume it will be no lower than fifth. He’s actually in a pretty solid spot to knock in runs as he has some pretty good OBP guys ahead of him in Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer and potentially Josh Willingham.
While this may not have been the best landing spot for Morales’ fantasy value, obviously he needs to be picked up in all leagues.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Any thoughts on the impact of Morales’ signing on the playing time of the other Twins?
More specifically, I’m concerned Arcia may not get as many at-bats if Morales is the full-time DH…
I think Arcia will play if healthy. My guess is Parmalee is the loser here (and of course Kubel)
btw – Morales joining the Twins actually makes sense for both sides. Who would have thought?
Like TZ, I assume it won’t be Arcia who loses playing time: he hada good start last year, and he’s got upside; Parmalee hasn’t done anything special in a while. Plus surely the Twins know that Podhorzer picked Arcia to win the AL HR crown.
I do wonder what happens with the Pinto/Suzuki situation, but what’s more exciting (kinda) is that this is a good lineup at the top.
Suzuki and Pinto have been DH when not catching (that is my currently nondata supported perception) so they may be squeezed out of ABs. No?
Pinto (19 GS), Mauer (8), and Collabella (7) have gotten the most starts at DH, with a bunch of other guys in the 2-4 range. Pinto has been terrible since the first few weeks of the season and his 17/17 BB/K has fallen to 3/19 since May 1st, so I would think he’d be the logical choice to lose PT.
I also hope it’s not Arcia as I patiently waited out his DL stint and have been enjoying the rewards the past couple weeks.
Pinto has slumped and I imagine he will lose playing time, but that’s a whopping 75 plate appearances since May 1. I wouldn’t judge him too harshly on such a small sample. He doesn’t get consistent at-bats. Suzuki has produced, though, mostly by cutting out strikeouts, so now, especially with Morales aboard, it’ll really be hard for Pinto to get at-bats.
True, but a lot of those lost ABs were due to interleague games played in NL parks where he could not DH and the Twins preferring Suzuki as the primary C. I guess it is a little chicken/egg situation in that it’s unclear if he’s slumping b/c of inconsistent ABs or getting inconsistent ABs b/c he is slumping. Regardless, I think the fact that he was the odd man out in NL parks would indicate he will be the odd man out once Morales is aboard as well.
The Fangraphs ballpark factors by handedness don’t show 2014 data.
It seems like Left handed batters are hitting a lot of Homeruns to right field the past couple weeks. Arcia, Singleton, and Carter/Springer are hitting opposite field dingers to Right.
Is it still sapping power from Lefties?
The Twins broadcasters were discussing whether Target Field has now become a launching pad. They said something like, maybe the concrete needed to really set and now things have changed.
Please elaborate on the “concrete” theory.
Found on a Twins message board:
“Concrete cures over the first several years after it is poured; during this process excess moisture in the concrete evaporates (this is a fact). The theory is that all this moisture leaving the concrete makes the air heavier and the ball doesn’t carry. I have no idea if this is true or not but its not out of the realm of possibility when you consider the incredible amount of concrete that goes into a stadium.”
Fascinating.
Yeah I’m not sure about this. But intriguing theory.
Arcia absolutely crushed some HRs at Target Field this year.
But if the concrete theory is true then it should happen at all new ballparks.
New Yankee stadium was Cape Canaviral its first season.
I’m under the impression that baseballs carry further in wet air.
href fail: http://host.madison.com/sports/baseball/ask-the-weather-guys-does-humidity-affect-the-flight-of/article_362bd3a4-4974-11df-b5b1-001cc4c002e0.html
A theory worth exploring, but just as a fact-check, if that’s Jon Singleton, he’s a lefty, so RF would be a pull.
I apologize, I read that wrong. Let me ‘thumbs down’ myself. Thanks.
This is probably a stupid question, but is there anyway adding Morales could help Joe Mauer retain catcher eligibility in keeper leagues? I think my current league is set up to 5 or 10 starts, I can’t recall.
Sorry Kris, but outside of Suzuki and Pinto coming down with injuries I don’t see Mauer catching again at least this year.
Probably not. They seem resigned to the fact that he just can’t play the position anymore.
I hear fantasy people referencing Mauer going back to catching part-time. Unless something changes dramatically, it won’t happen. The team basically an announcement this offseason that he is “retired from catching”. They have a $23 million/year investment and they don’t want to subject him additional concussion risk from foul tips to the mask, as happened last year.
Can anyone tell me if Morales was in fact on the Twins 25 man roster and in uniform on Sunday ( yesterday ) ?. I checked everywhere and I’m getting conflicting reports including that today will be his first game although I see other reports that he was in fact in uniform yesterday.
He was in uniform and on the bench with the other Twins players.
He’s out of options so it’s trial by fire.
He’s been hitting off college pitchers.
I don’t know if he has a twin brother either, but I seem to remember someone named Kendry Morales that used to be in the Angels organization and looked a lot like Kendrys Morales.
Would you prefer Morales over Beltran? I need another hitter for my UTIL spot and Beltran hasnt looked good so far.
Kendry is healthy. Beltran ain’t.
Kendry plays for a higher scoring offense.
Kendry is younger.
batting 6th tonight… any guess on ROS numbers? debating keeping him or dropping him for more speed
That’s a surprise, but he’ll move up a spot once Gardenhire comes to his senses and drops Danny Santana to the bottom when he cools off. Your league size should determine how valuable Morales is.