RotoGraphs June Consensus Ranks: Outfielders

When you start ranking outfielders, all you can think about is how many there are. It seems impossible. And then something funny happens, somewhere in the 60s for me — you run out of ones you really want in your lineup. And then there’s a ton left, yes, but they’re all mix and match fantasy platoon outfielders. And they aren’t super easy on the eyes.

I mean, sure, when he’s healthy Carl Crawford is useful. And if batting average isn’t a great concern, you can use Curtis Granderson and Colby Rasmus and Michael Saunders. And yeah, if you can platoon, Matt Joyce, David Murphy and Garrett Jones are fine options. But if you’re in a twelve-team weekly lineup, you’re holding your nose at those final outfielders.

Is the outfield less deep than it seems? Even the final outfielders in a twelve-team mixer — Dexter Fowler, Kole Calhoun, Josh Willingham — seem more like bench pieces for plug and play goodies than starters. How do you feel about your outfielders?

Again, this is for rest of season 5×5 roto, and though Jeff Zimmerman mostly uses the rest of season projections, it’s not just a computer ranking. We’ve left off the color coding in favor of a simple up or down arrow — those arrows are only next to big movers from their preseason position. The table is designed to be sortable in case you prefer one of the rankings
.

RG Player Jeff Zach Mike Eno
1 Mike Trout 1 1 1 1
2 Ryan Braun 3 6 2 2
3 Andrew McCutchen 2 7 3 4
4 Yasiel Puig 4 3 7 3
5 Adam Jones 5 9 5 5
6 Carlos Gomez 11 5 6 8
7 Jacoby Ellsbury 8 10 8 7
8 Carlos Gonzalez 6 18 4 6
9 Jose Bautista 10 4 10 10
10 Giancarlo Stanton 9 2 19 9
11 Shin-Soo Choo 19 8 13 12
12 Justin Upton 13 11 18 11
13 Hunter Pence 15 14 11 13
14 Alex Rios 14 15 12 14
15 Nelson Cruz 12 12 26 15
16 Jay Bruce 24 21 9 17
17 Yoenis Cespedes 17 26 21 16
18 Brandon Moss 27 16 20 21
19 Jayson Werth 26 24 15 20
20 Matt Holliday 30 20 16 23
21 Michael Cuddyer 22 17 33 18
22 Alex Gordon 18 13 34 27
23 Starling Marte 25 25 17 28
24 Billy Hamilton 7 40 27 25
25 George Springer 16 36 23 24
26 Jason Heyward 29 35 14 22
27 Coco Crisp 20 34 32 26
28 Michael Brantley 31 28 28 29
29 Melky Cabrera 23 22 69 19
30 Charlie Blackmon 34 23 49 30
31 Brett Gardner 39 27 35 36
32 Austin Jackson 32 44 31 31
33 Josh Hamilton 37 31 38 32
34 Torii Hunter 21 32 53 35
35 Desmond Jennings 33 49 25 34
36 Angel Pagan 44 19 44 37
37 Leonys Martin 36 47 30 33
38 Allen Craig 38 37 48 41
39 Bryce Harper 45 60 22 38
40 Carlos Beltran 51 51 24 43
41 Mark Trumbo 52 30 56 39
42 Norichika Aoki 43 46 39 52
43 Matt Kemp 49 43 36 52
44 Martin Prado 42 58 46 45
45 Domonic Brown 46 75 29 42
46 Rajai Davis 35 45 67 49
47 Christian Yelich 53 62 41 40
48 Michael Morse 57 29 54 60
49 Nick Markakis 41 50 62 48
50 Michael Bourn 40 56 58 50
51 Ben Zobrist 58 61 40 46
52 Marcell Ozuna 50 48 64 44
53 Khris Davis 59 57 47 47
54 Ben Revere 48 87 37 51
55 Gregory Polanco 39 39 94 53
56 Evan Gattis 69 52 50 68
57 Alejandro De Aza 47 84 61 54
58 Dexter Fowler 77 33 75 61
59 Kole Calhoun 54 100 42 57
60 Oswaldo Arcia 71 70 43 69
61 Josh Willingham 73 53 74 55
62 Gerardo Parra 55 74 70 58
63 Junior Lake 67 66 59 67
64 Adam Eaton 68 80 51 62
65 Marlon Byrd 56 54 93 59
66 Shane Victorino 75 85 55 56
67 Emilio Bonifacio 62 73 76 63
68 Carl Crawford 97 55 57 71
69 Curtis Granderson 76 76 52 77
70 Dayan Viciedo 63 67 72 81
71 Matt Joyce 84 68 68 64
72 Colby Rasmus 72 77 66 76
73 Alfonso Soriano 28 96 71 99
74 Will Venable 66 102 45 84
75 Michael Saunders 60 64 89 85
76 Denard Span 61 78 73 86
77 David Murphy 87 59 87 65
78 Chris Carter 64 88 63 90
79 Lorenzo Cain 88 72 84 70
80 B.J. Upton 78 99 60 78
81 Carlos Quentin 94 41 86 95
82 Oscar Taveras 121 38 92 66
83 Corey Dickerson 102 69 78 72
84 Lucas Duda 83 65 91 83
85 Garrett Jones 80 71 98 79
86 Andre Ethier 82 82 100 80
87 James Jones 110 97 65 75
88 Josh Reddick 86 93 80 91
89 Wil Myers 74 104 88 88
90 Seth Smith 118 42 121 74
91 Nick Swisher 89 108 79 82
92 Dustin Ackley 79 92 101 89
93 Chris Young 85 101 77 98
94 Cameron Maybin 107 63 121 73
95 Drew Stubbs 70 91 121 87
96 Michael Choice 65 121 90 97
97 Eric Young 90 86 106 92
98 Nate Schierholtz 93 107 81 93
99 David DeJesus 99 94 99 94
100 Chris Denorfia 101 79 114 105
101 Justin Ruggiano 95 121 82 104
102 Cody Ross 109 110 83 100
103 Jose Tabata 91 111 102 112
104 Juan Lagares 106 83 121 106
105 Robbie Grossman 117 121 85 96
106 Jonny Gomes 121 81 109 108
107 Craig Gentry 121 89 108 103
108 A.J. Pollock 103 105 104 111
109 Ryan Ludwick 116 95 107 107
110 Jackie Bradley Jr 98 117 113 98
111 Jon Jay 119 90 121 102
112 Kelly Johnson 104 120 96 115
113 Ichiro Suzuki 105 121 95 117
114 Joc Pederson 112 106 121 101
115 Peter Bourjos 115 109 97 121
116 David Lough 96 121 120 113
117 Alex Presley 100 119 121 114
118 Jarrod Dyson 114 98 121 121
119 Nate McLouth 108 121 117 118
120 Grant Green 121 114 121 109
121 Aaron Hicks 120 121 105 121
122 Jason Kubel 121 115 121 120
123 Chris Heisey 121 118 119 121

Ranked by one analyst: Raul Ibanez, Kyle Blanks, Ryan Doumit, Ryan Raburn, Jesus Guzman, Charlie Culberson, Scott Van Slyke, Anthony Gose, Jimmy Paredes, Abraham Almonte, Logan Forsythe, Marc Krauss, Jordan Schafer, Darin Ruf, Danny Santana, Chris Colabello,





With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

57 Comments
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Ben
12 years ago

Where would Ryan Zimmerman fit in this as he has shifted to Left Field for the foreseeable future.

ballfourMember since 2020
12 years ago

Nelson Cruz at 26, Mike?

Brantley is still underrated. It’s a joke he’s under Marte.

Ray
12 years ago
Reply to  ballfour

Mike’s ranking of Stanton at 19 is a headscratcher, too. Behind Heyward, Werth and Holliday, just ahead of Cespedes, Moss, Springer and Beltran?

Harper so low in the consensus (39th) is kinda strange. I get that he’s out another month but replacement-level followed by three months of top-20 would indicate something higher than 39, no?

ballfourMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  Ray

I have to assume (and maybe this is known already and I’m the guy who doesn’t know yet) Mike is letting a spreadsheet make his picks. That’s fine if he’s formula-driven, but I’d argue you need a common-sense check, too.

Cameron
12 years ago
Reply to  Ray

I am confused about Harper as well. Although Blackmon got off to a great start this year the fact that he is ahead of Harper for the remainder of the season (9 spots at that) is crazy.

The Humber Games
12 years ago
Reply to  Ray

One guy even had Harper at 60…time to drop him for Ben Revere I guess?

Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
12 years ago
Reply to  Ray

Stanton’s projection wasn’t adjusted. He’s a batting average risk and his injury history meant I couldn’t project a full season of at-bats. Plus, I guess I expected the Marlins offense to be much worse than it has been. That would hurt his R/RBI numbers.

Bryce Harper is down where he is because of his injury. You can’t add a replacement player to just him, otherwise you’d have to add one to every single player until they add to the same plate appearance total.

Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
12 years ago
Reply to  Ray

Of course I’m using a spreadsheet. How else are you going to value players?

Garbage in...
12 years ago
Reply to  Ray

Garbage out

TheEvilEmpire142
12 years ago
Reply to  ballfour

First thing that I saw, Brantley UNDER Marte. Give me Brantley all day over Marte.

Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
12 years ago
Reply to  ballfour

I used my preseason projections/dollar value as a baseline and adjusted the projections as necessary. Both Cruz and Marte were actually adjusted. But really folks, it’s been a little over 2 months. We have an entire career from Cruz and last season of fantastic power/speed combo from Marte.

Josh
12 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Bayes Bayes Bayes

scoko
12 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Marte recently just sat 4 games in a row… so clearly their coaching staff weighs this recent slump rather heavily. Also, Marte had 3 second half home runs last year… 3. And hit .254 2nd half. His poor performance dates back all the way to july 1 of last year, almost a full season.

Alex
12 years ago
Reply to  ballfour

He has Melky Cabrera at 69… lower than BJ Upton

ballfourMember since 2020
12 years ago

Dom Brown at 29? I will now invite Mike to every league and poker game I ever assemble. Wow.

Kaiser
12 years ago
Reply to  ballfour

What about Melky at 69 (when the others have him ranked 23, 22, and 19)…ludicrous.

Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
12 years ago
Reply to  ballfour

You’re weighting 2 months of this season far too heavily.

Josh
12 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Mike, you seem to be ignoring 2 months worth of data, which happens to be the 2 most recent months of data.

you’re my favorite fantasy writer on the site and one of my favorites out there period, but the rankings you guys put out are just consistently shocking.

supgreg
12 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Weighting 2 months of this season too heavily? I’d say you are weighting one month of last season too heavily.

Brown has 31 homers since the beginning of 2013, 12 of them last may. That means 19 in the other 8 months.

Over the last calendar year, he has 13 homers, 50 runs, 69 RBI, 6 SB, and a .241 average in 139 games. That is not the 29th best outfielder.

Corey
12 years ago

I really think you guys should start using median for these instead of mean.

Jason B
12 years ago
Reply to  Corey

The median of four numbers?

Cameron
12 years ago

Luckily my outfielders in a 14 team keeper consist of Alex Gordon, Matt Holliday, Jason Heyward, Bryce Harper, Khris Davis, and Oscar Taveras.

Jason B
12 years ago
Reply to  Cameron

Bless your heart.

Jeff
12 years ago

Ryan Braun at #2? Why? Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy?

Feeding the Abscess
12 years ago
Reply to  Jeff

He’s on a full season pace of 30 HR, 200+ R/RBI, and close to 20 SB. While hitting .300.

Marte over Stanton???
12 years ago

HAHAHAHA man I want to play in Mike’s league

Roman
12 years ago

Why, so you can get rolled on?

Brian
12 years ago

I hate to be rude but can we get a consensus re-rank without Mike’s rankings?As others have pointed out, they’re… interesting.

Or toss out the high-low for every rank and average the middle two.

Roman
12 years ago
Reply to  Brian

“The table is designed to be sortable in case you prefer one of the rankings.”

Jeff
12 years ago
Reply to  Brian

I hit “like” by accident here, though no offense, Brian.
Podhorzer has won a bunch of tough leagues and always has good reason for this rankings. Analysts differ, and it’d be boring if they didn’t.
What I’d really like is to see an “interesting differences” column from the rankers, where each one picks four or five guys they’re different on (Zack has Fowler at 33, which I’d really like to believe, considering my shares). Pod does something like this at the beginning of the season, but it’d be fun to see them at update time.

Brian
12 years ago
Reply to  Jeff

@Jeff: I agree, I really like Mike’s analysis and I really enjoy reading his articles. But a consensus rank isn’t that useful when one of the ranking skews the consensus so much.

MDLMember since 2021
12 years ago
Reply to  Brian

Average the middle two = median

Brian
12 years ago
Reply to  MDL

@Roman: I know the table is sortable. But I’d like to see the consensus of the opinions that I’m valuing at the moment.

@MDL: Oh my god, you’re right.

jfree
12 years ago
Reply to  Brian

I agree. Kill the different. It’s confusing and causes stress. And it’s as dangerous as trying to drive against the traffic on the interstate. What’s the point of having rules if we just allow some people to do whatever they want.

Evan Richard Segerman
12 years ago

Jay Bruce at 9? In what world is he better than Joey Bats at this point?

Sandy
12 years ago

Hell, in what world is he better than Brandon Moss?

grassyjones
12 years ago
Reply to  Sandy

The real world.

Brian
12 years ago

Another thing that I find interesting is that Mike Trout always seems to get a bonus for his youth — but that Stanton and Puig never do.

Trout is a stud and should be #1, but if you’re not factoring in his age, he’s an arguable #1, not a straight up #1.

Is Trout actually better than Puig or Stanton if you treated them the same? And if he is (he is) how do you justify putting half a dozen players between them?

Puig (23) 335/430/591 11 HR 6 SB
Trout (22 10months) 293/375/554 12 HR 6 SB
Stanton (24) 301/393/589 17 HR 4 SB

Stanton is clear winner in power, none of them really run, and Puig is everything Trout is.

Again, not hating on Trout at #1 but cannot see a justification for the gap between he and his fellow youngsters.

Andy
12 years ago
Reply to  Brian

Trout isn’t running as much this year but he’s clearly demonstrated in the last two years that he has the capability of putting up a ton of SBs. His potential to do so again keeps him at the top. Just because he hasn’t stolen a lot through the first two months of 2014 doesn’t mean he never will again.

Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
12 years ago
Reply to  Brian

These are rest of season rankings, why are you comparing only the stats from this year? Those only factor a small amount into rest of season projections.

Brian
12 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Do you have some reason to believe that Trout, Puig, or Stanton will meaningfully deviate from what they’ve done so far this year? Or is that just a red herring response.

Stanton is healthy, and he’s really really good. Puig is really really good. Trout is really good, but he hasn’t run as much and is striking out more.

Are you saying the gap between the three is justified? Or that Trout isn’t getting a bonus for his age while Stanton/Puig don’t?

King of the North
12 years ago

Ranking lists generally tighten the pantaloons, but this list makes my eyes rain.

You have two options:
1. Post a better list without Mr. Roborank, and make the children happy
2. Don’t post a better list, and suffer absolutely no consequences

Sandy
12 years ago

Just gonna point out, you can copy-paste the table into a spreadsheet and do this yourself.

King of the North
12 years ago
Reply to  Sandy

This is America, people do things for me because yes.

Sam
12 years ago

Is there a more under-rated OF this year than Angel Pagan? I submit, no.

He hits first in the order of one of the best teams in baseball. Is hitting for average supported by a strong walk rate (leading to an exception OBP). Can hit a homer or two (probably like 10-13 for the season) and is on pace for 30+ steals.

Aside for the more than occasional day off to help his knees, he’s pretty much shown that he can put up across the board stats that add up to a top-25 OF. I don’t expect major decline as his BABIP numbers are not ridiculous.

Nice to see Zach noticed this, ranking him at 19, which i think is extremely appropriate. It’ll be interesting to see him jump 15 spots in the ranks when the other four rankers follow suit.

Brian
12 years ago
Reply to  Sam

Angel Pagan has always been and will always be consistently underranked because he a) got a late start, b) has no standout tool. But I love me some Crazy Horse.

Emcee Peepants
12 years ago
Reply to  Sam

I like Pagan as much as the next guy, but I think you’re overstating things a little. His AVG and BABIP are 35-40 points above his career averages, so one would expect those to come down some. His “strong walk rate” is below league average by 0.5%. It would take a miracle or northward migration of the Santa Ana winds for him to hit 10-13 HR playing in SF, hitting LH 70% of the time, and with a FB% of 28.3%. 20-25 steals is a lot more likely than 30+.

He’s basically a one and a half category guy, which if you’re looking for steals is fine, but more like top 40 than top 25.

Zach SandersMember since 2020
12 years ago
Reply to  Sam

Amen.

Anal Hershiser
12 years ago

Giancarlo at 19 and Dom Brown at 29. Seems legit.

Anon21
12 years ago
Reply to  Anal Hershiser

Maybe for Brown, he meant there’s a 29% chance he ends the year on a major-league roster? Guy’s been atrocious.

Harry
12 years ago
Reply to  Anal Hershiser

Anal Hershiser… what a name.

James
12 years ago

The players I have on my team never get the respect they deserve in the meta game that is fantasy fantasy baseball rankings.

thomas
12 years ago

I have a feeling Kemp is going to make ya’ll look pretty dumb.

Justin
12 years ago

Austin Jackson continues to be ranked very high on this and other sites for someone who does absolutely nothing

Steinbrenner's Calzone
12 years ago

Last time we saw a healthy Melky in 2012, he was top 50…overall players, well into August. Here he is again, two months in. Same. His 2011 season (last full healthy one) saw 100+runs, .305avg., 20SB, 87RBI, 18 HR.

Is your ultra low designation predicting another steroid bust, or another tumor in his back? Assuming a little risk, thats still too low. Assuming a clean urine sample and health bill, that rank is ludicrous.

Jordan S
12 years ago

can’t wait until Dickerson and Blackmon swap spots.

Ben
12 years ago

Take a look at the Steamer projections for Josh Willingham (or Zips, but pro rate it to 75 games). Then take a look at Matt Holliday. The Hammer is severely underrated. Health is always an issue, but when he’s healthy, he rakes.