Here is the first run of my top-150 starting pitcher rankings for 2022. I create these by turning my personal projections into dollar values and using those, along with non-projection factors, to rank accordingly.

These will change, as my projections do, over the course of the offseason, with many being driven by adjustments in playing time projections more so than changes in talent rates. ADP information is taken from NFBC, previous values are calculated with FanGraphs auction calculator. Read the rest of this entry »

There is more to pitching in fantasy than just strikeouts but ratios and wins can be fickle little elves from season to season, mischievously relying on more things beyond a pitcher’s control. The whiffs, however, tend to be more predictable year-to-year. Or, at least, it’s easier to make more direct connections between changing results and changing stuff.

Strikeout rates also start to stabilize quickly, at around 60 batters faced. Note that they only start to stabilize at that point, so while the sample may start being meaningful, it becomes much more so with more batters faced. But the comparatively lower threshold for strikeouts makes it more possible to compare them with 2020’s mini-season.

Here are the starting pitchers in 2021 (min 75 IP) that saw at least a two-point increase in their strikeout rate compared to 2020.

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As baseball history keeps telling us, a pitcher’s ultimate success often starts with the heater, providing a base of core strength for their pitch-mix body on which the glamor muscles of the breaking stuff can better be supported.

With that in mind, let’s look at the best fastballs from starters in 2022 according to Run-Value (per 100 pitches) before looking at three possible draft-day bargains. While Run Value is by no means the end-all measurement of overall quality, (nor necessarily predictive), it does give us a solid snapshot of the overall results that a pitch returned while sending up flares for where further investigation might be warranted.

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Let’s do some experimenting. Let’s imagine you drafted a team using only one statistic. What style of baseball are you? Do you love the hitters with speed, bat control, and an eye for tactics? Or, are you more of the home run or strikeout kind of fan? Why can’t you be both, you ask? Well because it’s an experiment and you have to choose one or the other. So…go ahead. Which do you choose? The K% Kings or the Barrel Brothers?

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Last time on “Steamer Says”, we turned the first Steamer projections of 2022 into values using the FanGraphs auction calculator to see how they compared to the ranks available in the current NFBC draft room. Using those differences as a guide, I took a look at four hitters that Steamer had valued higher and dug deeper to see if we should agree.

We also talked about my belief that failing to pay attention to those ranks is to throw away a valuable tool. While site ranks shouldn’t necessarily inform your valuations of players, they will often inform the decisions of some of your opponents. Whether conscious or unconscious, bias can be a powerful force and I’ll take any and all advantages I can find when drafting.

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With NFBC unofficially ushering in the start of the 2022 draft season last week, I think now is a good time to check in on a key piece of information your chosen fantasy platform provides. Site ranks, baby.

Uh-oh…Noob alert, am I right? I mean, how could a serious fantasy player pay attention to something so trite as site ranks? What am I going to do next; say something insane like ADP is important? Well, yes. But not today because we don’t yet have a significant sample. So, we’ll start by focusing on the ranks that sites include in their draft rooms and why paying attention to them should help inform your decisions. Read the rest of this entry »

What’s better than sleepers? That’s right. More sleepers!!

Last time out we briefly laid out how loose I am with my definition of sleeper before taking a deeper look at two players I think will actualize my said nebulous designation. Tl;dr: I see sleepers as players who have some combination of high-ROI and low-hype. Also, designating sleepers before actionable ADP is available is basically a guessing game. See? Loose.

After choosing a player from Detroit and Kansas City the last time out, we might as well keep this AL Central tour of sadness going. Let’s get things started by taking some big deep breaths, in and out, listening to nothing but the sound of my voice. In and out. Now relax your breath and relax your inner self as we all get very, very sleepy. In-nnn…and out.

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Even though the World Series has just started, sleeper season has arrived for we who laugh haughtily at the idea of an offseason. So, like any good tout, I’m busy preparing for the winter by searching for the players that you’ll wish you would’ve drafted this time next year.

But first, the asterisk. Let’s just skip any philosophical debates about what does or does not constitute a sleeper, as its definition is very user-dependent and can range from very broad (any player, regardless of round/price that you think will return a substantial ROI) to very narrow (the out-of-nowhere player that returns Mullins-esque value).

Let’s just say that I keep my definition pretty loose, looking for players that I think will return big value relative to their price but also ones who I’m confident will, for whatever reason (boring vet, bad team, etc), be easier to acquire. Low Q-rating guys, if you will. Read the rest of this entry »

Stealing bases continue to be less and less of a priority as baseball evolves in its current iteration but regardless, they remain an equal part of the equation in most rotisserie setups. This makes it more important than ever to find extra ways to find speed in the margins.

With 2021 in the books, I wanted to spend some time on stolen bases, so I’ll start with speed trends, both overall and team-by-team. And then finish up today looking at how some of the 2022 free-agent class might be affected by where they end up signing. In the next piece, I’ll move on to if the value of stolen bases in fantasy has changed and whether we should adjust how we draft for them going forward.

Before we get started, though, will everyone please bow their heads in a moment of silence for baseball thievery, as we’ll begin with a reading of the obituary. Read the rest of this entry »

With the fantasy season almost wrapped up, we might as well kick off the gossip about one of the offseason’s most salacious topics. Velo, baby. Who found some, who lost some, and everything in between.

This will all be heavily parsed before the next Opening Day, as changes in fastball velocity can often be reliable indicators for which pitchers are heading in which directions. And for those who like to draft early, velocity changes can serve as an early flag for possible targets or to identify the players that might first need a closer look.

With that in mind, here are the 32 starting pitchers who have increased their average fastball velocity by at least 0.5 mph since 2020 (minimum 200 fastballs in each season). Four-seamers and sinkers are grouped together and numbers are from pitches only thrown as a starting pitcher. Also included are 2019 velocities, as well as the percentile ranks from 2019-2021. Read the rest of this entry »