Targets and Avoids for Streaming LHP

As we come down the fantasy stretch, every matchup you choose starts to matter that much more. Whether it’s knowing who to stream or which stalwart in your rotation should maybe sit one out, it’s best to bring as much recent information to your process as possible.

We already looked at team performances vs RHP, so let’s crossover and look at how teams are faring versus lefthanders, looking at the numbers heading into last night’s action. But first, a quick caveat.

Sample Size vs LHP

Before we get started, we need to put a sample-size warning on plate appearances vs LHP, as the numbers are, naturally, lighter than vs RHP. And when comparing first and second-half numbers, things can get even wackier on a team-by-team basis.

For example, the Red Sox have the most appearances vs the LHP in the second half (through August 24), with 573 PA, and the 6th-most for the season, at 1133 PA. At the other end of the spectrum, we have the Cardinals, who have just 951 PA vs LHP for the year, and 286 PA in the second half.

That’s not to say we need to throw anything out or take it with such a big grain of salt that we render any conclusions, well, inconclusive. It just means we’ll sometimes have to lean heavier on the total PA in 2021 instead of just the second half.

For example:

St. Louis Cardinals

As mentioned, no team has fewer appearances vs LHP, than the Cardinals. So, while a .343 wOBA (5th) and .340 xwOBA (4th) in the second half are impressive, we shouldn’t get carried away considering it’s over just 286 PA. However, while 951 PA vs LHP for the season still puts them last in baseball, a .331 xwOBA (6th) is a more comfortable number for me to trust.

However, things get more comfortable when looking at a bigger window. Because while I’ve gotten a lot of mileage out of “St. Louis won’t be good in 2021 because they struggle vs RHP”, I wasn’t worried about how they would do vs LHP:

When looking at their previous performances, I’m willing to put more trust in the Cardinals’ second-half improvements and won’t be going out of my way to stream LHP against them*.

*Unless it’s Tarik Skubal, I guess?

Milwaukee Brewers

Much like the Cardinals, the Brewers are near the bottom in PA vs LHP for the whole season (1155 PA), as well as both halves (1st: 809 PA, 2nd: 346 PA). And also like the Cardinals (as in the exact same), Milwaukee has greatly improved, posting a .343 wOBA (5th) that’s up from .307 wOBA (19th). However, the Brewers can’t match St. Louis when it comes to expected results, running a .308 xwOBA in the second half and a .310 xwOBA in the first.

But of extra importance to fantasy players, Milwaukee has drastically cut down their strikeout rate vs LHP, from a 27.1% K% (27th) to a 19.7% K% (8th), while their SwStr% has dropped over two points, going from 12.9% to 10.6%. Once again, small sample, but keep in mind that the Brewers have also shaved over five-points off of their strikeout rate versus RHP.

The Top Targets

We’re talking about the bottom of the barrel and, uncoincidentally, we have a lot of repeats from our list vs RHP. But let’s start with a newcomer.

 

Seattle Mariners

The surprising Mariners are 11 games over .500 and improved mightily versus RHP in the second half but have remained unsuccessful against LHP, although there have been some improvements compared to the first half. With the second-most appearances vs LHP since the break, Seattle has posted a .301 wOBA (up from .291 wOBA), .295 xwOBA (.298 xwOBA in the first half), and .691 OPS (up from .669 OPS).

The modest increases are nice but for fantasy purposes, the Mariners’ drop in their free-swinging ways is more concerning, as a 26.9% K% vs LHP from the first half has dropped to a 23.9% K% in the second half. By rank, that only drops them from 26th to 22nd but they’ve seen a more extreme drop in their swinging-strike rate, going from a 14.2% SwStr% (30th) to an 11.0% SwStr% (12th).

Upcoming Opposing LHP

Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch (KC @ SEA), Madison Bumgarner, Tyler Gilbert (ARI vs SEA)

 

Texas Rangers

We’ve already gone over how bad the Rangers are in terms of facing RHP and the story isn’t much different going against the wrong-handers:

Second Half League Ranks

.250 wOBA (30th)

.277 xwOBA (29th)

.574 OPS (30th)

56 wRC+ (29th)

.250 OBP (30th)

.324 SLG (30th)

.133 ISO (30th)

The only real difference between the Rangers facing right- or left-handers, is that they’ve been much stingier on strikeouts vs LHP, with a 23.6% K% (18th) in the first half dropping to a 20.3% K% (11th) in the second half.

Upcoming Opposing LHP

Sam Hentges (CLE vs TEX), Framber Valdez (HOU @ TEX), Austin Gomber, Kyle Freeland (COL @ TEX), Jose Quintana, Reid Detmers (LAA vs TEX)

 

Pittsburgh Pirates

We head to Pittsburgh for another rerun, as the Pirates continue to be lackluster from both sides of the plate, running a .283 wOBA (28th) and .298 xwOBA (28th) vs LHP in the second half. This shouldn’t be surprising given the lineup was already poor before they traded Adam Frazier (.366 wOBA, .850 OPS vs LHP) – sans Bryan Reynolds, of course.

Once you get past Reynolds (.389 wOBA, .930 OPS), the Pirates leaders in PA vs LHP are:

Kevin Newman: .248 wOBA, .578 OPS

Jacob Stallings: .253 wOBA, .573 OPS

Gregory Polanco: .194 wOBA, .418 OPS

With those kinds of black holes in the lineup, the only real worry about starting a left-hander against Pittsburgh is whether Matthew McConaughey will be able to pull them back if they accidentally cross the event horizon.

Upcoming Opposing LHP

J.A. Happ, Kwang-Hyun Kim (STL @ PIT), Carlos Rodon (CHW vs PIT), Justin Steele (CHC vs PIT)

 

Miami Marlins

Eternally rebuilding, the Marlins continue to flounder in Florida. They have a .302 wOBA (25th), .290 xwOBA (26th), and .692 OPS (24th) vs LHP in the second half.

While Miami’s strikeout rate has come down some, dropping from a 25.6% K% (26th) to a 24.1% K% (22nd), their free-swinging ways have not. The Marlins 13.9% SwStr% vs LHP in the second half is the highest in baseball.

If it looks like a fish and flops like a fish, you should probably get your pole in the stream.

Upcoming Opposing LHP

Patrick Corbin (WSN @ MIA), Wade Miley (CIN @ MIA), Rich Hill (NYM vs MIA), Ranger Suarez (PHI @ MIA)

 

Chicago Cubs

Considering their deadline moves, there was little chance the Chicago sell-offs would fail to make our list. The sample isn’t large, however, with the Cubs having the fifth-fewest appearances vs LHP in the second half and the fifth-lowest for the year.

They do have some bright spots in terms of small-sample success vs LHP, with Patrick Wisdom (91 PA: .365 wOBA), Frank Schwindel (40 PA: .490 wOBA), and Robinson Chirinos (25 PA: .383 wOBA) leading the way. And pulling back to career numbers, those three still excel, though Chirinos is the only one with a significant sample:

Career vs LHP

Patrick Wisdom (124 PA): .342 wOBA, .808 OPS

Frank Schwindel (53 PA): .384 wOBA, .935 OPS

Robinson Chirinos (622 PA): .367 wOBA, .851 OPS

But in terms of streaming, Chicago’s strikeout rate is what really shines. A 25.4% K% (24th) and 13.1% SwStr% (22nd) in the first half has risen to a 27.8% K% (29th) and 14.1% SwStr% in the second half.

I’m a simple man; when choosing pitching matchups, I just want to face a lineup like this:

 

Upcoming Opposing LHP

Dallas Keuchel (CHW vs CHC), Charlie Barnes (MIN vs CHC), Dillon Peters, Steven Brault (CHC vs PIT)

 

Second Half Dropoffs

Just as we did with RHP, it’s important to notice which teams have improved their performance vs LHP in the second half, just as it is to know which teams to take advantage of. AKA: Don’t keep making the same decisions after your information has changed. Adjust your expectations.

Baltimore Orioles

Now the proud owners of two whole wins in August, the Orioles just aren’t very good. Insightful, right? But the damage they did against LHP in the first half can’t be ignored, as Baltimore posted a .331 wOBA (5th), with just a 21.9% K% (8th). But so far in the second half, the Orioles are down to a .295 wOBA (26th), while the strikeouts have risen to a 24.0% K% (24th).

Given the 13.2% SwStr% in the first half and 12.8% SwStr% in the second half, I’m more inclined to believe the more recent strikeout trend. But Baltimore had a .322 xwOBA (12th) that is up to a .331 xwOBA (8th) in the second half. So, what gives with the wOBA drop and why is their xwOBA still so impressive?

For starters, the walks have fallen off of the table, dropping from a .329 OBP (8th) to a .274 OBP that is the second-worst in baseball. And there’s also the unsustainable .326 BABIP (2nd) from the first half, that has gone full-on opposite day in the second half, with the Orioles posting a .257 BABIP that is the fourth-lowest. So, has Baltimore gotten that much worse at hitting, or is it more to do with a bad walk rate (7.4% BB%) getting even worse (5.5% BB%) in the second half?

Looking at wOBA on contact, I favor leaning towards the latter. Baltimore dropped from a .396 wOBAcon in the first half to a .362 wOBAcon in the second half but their .383 xwOBAcon (t-12th) from the first half has actually increased to a .414 xwOBAcon that leads all of baseball in the second half.

Between their increased damage on contact and their home park, I’m still not rushing to stream LHP against Baltimore, if I can help it. Speaking of, do you see any dicey (but startable) lefties on the Orioles’ upcoming schedule? Choose wisely.

Upcoming Opposing LHP

Shane McClanahan (TB @ BAL), Robbie Ray, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Steven Matz (TOR vs BAL), Nestor Cortes Jr., Jordan Montgomery, Andrew Heaney (NYY vs BAL)

 

Los Angeles Angels

Minnesota Twins

The Angels made our list of dropoffs versus righties and are right back on the lefties list, running a .335 wOBA (2nd) and .342 xwOBA (4th) in the first half before plummeting to a .292 wOBA (27th) and .287 xwOBA (28th) in the second half. And the decreases don’t stop there, as their OPS is down 100-points, dropping about 40-pts from OBP and 60-pts from SLG. In fact, the only real increase the Angels have seen in the second half is in strikeouts, going from a 21.1% K% to a 24.0%. Not great.

The story is very similar with the Twins, who had a .330 wOBA (7th) and .330 xwOBA (8th) vs LHP in the first half but have a .280 wOBA (29th) and .298 xwOBA (23rd) in the second half. They’ve also increased their strikeout rate by two points, going from the 18th-highest to the 2nd.

However, Minnesota only has 391 PA vs LHP (20th) in the second half, compared to 1140 PA (7th) in the first half, so we probably shouldn’t get too carried away. But as a counterpoint, the 54-71 Twins have been going through the motions for a while and no longer have Nelson Cruz.

 

Second Half Turnarounds

Tampa Bay Rays

One of the worst teams vs LHP in the first half, Tampa Bay has turned things around in the second half but the improvements aren’t as dramatic as they were vs RHP. The Rays have a .337 wOBA (10th) vs LHP in the second half that is up from a .297 wOBA (27th) in the first half, with a .677 OPS (27th) rising to a .794 OPS (8th).

However, while still better, things aren’t as great on the expected front, with a .297 xwOBA (26th) increasing to a .312 xwOBA (17th). Throw in a .290 BABIP (18th) that has increased to .315 BABIP (8th) and I’d be more inclined to think some of their second-half improvements are being driven more by batted-ball luck than they are by actual improvements.

But looking at their numbers since 2019, it seems some improvements (at least for some players) are more a matter of talent leveling out, than lucking out. Except for Austin Meadows, who still can’t (and won’t) hit lefties:

As is often the case with these things, I don’t think the Rays are as good as they’ve been in the second half, nor as bad as they were in the first. But the improvements, along with a  strikeout rate that has dropped from a 27.2% K% (28th) to a 23.3% K% (19th), give me further reasons to not seek them out.

 

Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers

Two of the AL Central doormats have shown big (and similar) improvements in the second half, with Cleveland improving from a .300 wOBA and .688 OPS to a .342 wOBA and .799 OPS, while Detroit has jumped from a .304 wOBA and .697 OPS to a .343 wOBA and .799 OPS. And the story is similar in regards to xwOBA, as Cleveland has gone from a .305 xwOBA to a .318 xwOBA, while Detroit has gone from .298 xwOBA to a .323 xwOBA.

The BABIP story is a bit different, though, relative both to where they started, and where they’re at. Cleveland ran a paltry .267 BABIP in the first half, the second-lowest in baseball, but have a .309 BABIP (9th) in the second half. The Tigers, on the other hand, had a .316 BABIP in the first half (8th) that has only gotten better in the second half, posting a .324 BABIP that is the second-highest.

Again, the big separating factor (at least for fantasy) is how their K-rates have fluctuated. Cleveland has stayed in the middle of the road, posting a 23.4% K% (17th) in the first half and a 21.4% K% (15th) in the second half but the Tigers have cut things way back. Detroit’s 28.7% K% (30th) from the first half has dropped to a 19.5% K% (7th) since the All-Star break. While they remain one of the softer targets to attack, you may want to adjust your expectation on strikeouts.