Checking in on 2021 Velocity Increases

With the fantasy season almost wrapped up, we might as well kick off the gossip about one of the offseason’s most salacious topics. Velo, baby. Who found some, who lost some, and everything in between.

This will all be heavily parsed before the next Opening Day, as changes in fastball velocity can often be reliable indicators for which pitchers are heading in which directions. And for those who like to draft early, velocity changes can serve as an early flag for possible targets or to identify the players that might first need a closer look.

With that in mind, here are the 32 starting pitchers who have increased their average fastball velocity by at least 0.5 mph since 2020 (minimum 200 fastballs in each season). Four-seamers and sinkers are grouped together and numbers are from pitches only thrown as a starting pitcher. Also included are 2019 velocities, as well as the percentile ranks from 2019-2021.

 

Patrick Corbin, WSN (+2.3 mph)

Patrick Corbin’s four-seamer is averaging its highest velocity since 2017 (and his sinker since 2015) but the upticks have largely come in the second half of the season. After his fastballs averaged 90.1 mph in 2020 and 91.7 mph in the first half of 2021, Corbin has averaged 93.3 mph in the second half:

 

Unfortunately for him (and the Nationals, who are still on the hook for ~$73 million), the increase in velocity hasn’t brought any change to his results, posting a 6.59 ERA (5.79 FIP) in the second half after a 5.40 ERA (5.20 FIP) in the first. Though, performance against his fastballs has stayed remarkably consistent, with batters posting a .394 wOBA (.397 xwOBA) and .412 wOBA on contact (.416 xwOBAcon) in the first half, compared to a .397 wOBA (.401 xwOBA) and .410 wOBA on contact (.416 xwOBAcon) in the second half.

It is interesting that all of his pitches have risen in velocity, including his (formerly) vaunted slider, which has averaged 81.7 mph in the second half, up from 79.6 mph in the first half. This is notable, as Corbin’s slider was also at a slower 79.2 mph in 2020, after averaging 81.7 mph in 2019 and 2018 and 81 mph in 2016 and 2017 – AKA his primo slidepiece seasons.

As his velocity dropped, so did the elite movement on the vertical plane:

 

Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising to see the slider’s break again increase as the velocity has:

 

Looking at the results against it, however, things don’t appear to be going any better. Batters had a .248 wOBA (.287 xwOBA) and a -0.2 Run Value (per 100 pitches) against Corbin’s slider in the first half and a .319 wOBA (.274 xwOBA) and +0.5 RV per 100 in the second half. But it has been much better in the last month.

But Corbin has been good in three of his four starts in September, with his 4.01 ERA (4.34 FIP) for the month dragged down by a six-run shellacking against the Rockies. Regardless, a one-month sample isn’t anything to get hyped about, especially considering results that weren’t that special. But it is encouraging that those successes were built of his slider, which allowed a .310 wOBA and .237 xwOBA, with a -1.9 RV per 100 pitches – which is a lot closer to the -2.2 RV per 100 and -1.9 RV per 100 that the slider had in 2019 and 2018.

My low opinions on Corbin have been the same for a while but they’ve always been based on the changing shape and performance of the slider. Because as it goes, he goes. While it’s hard to say I’m fully back in after just a few months of increased velocity/movement and just a few starts of improved results, I’m also not going to ignore it.

Considering his likely 2022 draft price and the number of innings he usually manages, Corbin doesn’t have to have the low-3.00’s ERA and ~30% K% from 2018-2019 to be valuable. It just can’t be a high 4.00 ERA with a 20% K%.

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Charlie Morton, ATL (+2.0 mph)

I’m ashamed to admit that I had zero Morton in my life in 2021. It was more about his draft price rather than thinking his talent had fallen off of a cliff following a bad nine-start season in 2020, with his 4.74 ERA and 24.7% K% representing a respective high and low mark since his last year with Pittsburgh in 2015. But it’s also hard to see a pitcher getting deep in his 30’s who lost a tick on his fastball in 2020 after also losing one the year prior and wonder if the inevitable slide of time had begun to pick up speed.

But Morton has pushed back that narrative in 2021 and picked up his velocity losses from the past two seasons, with his four-seamer averaging 95.5 mph, its highest mark since 2018, with the increase staying steady, averaging 95.2 mph in the first half and 95.4 mph in the second half. After batters posted a .370 wOBA and .359 xwOBA) against it in 2020, they’ve dropped to a .310 wOBA and .311 xwOBA in 2021.

Morton’s success is always going to be driven by Uncle Charlie but the curveball’s effectiveness would’ve likely continued to wane as his fastball velocity dipped. Seeing it bounce back (and hold) in 2021 is very encouraging for another solid season in 2022.

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Sandy Alcantara, MIA (+1.3 mph)

I give! I give! I take back everything bad I said about Alcantara, disparaging his low strikeout rates and small likelihood of picking up wins for the Marlins, making jokes about how he was a poor man’s Jose Berrios – a top-60 pitcher priced like he was top-40. I take it all back, damn it!

To be fair, if I knew his fastball velocity was going to jump into the 99th percentile after sitting in the 92nd-93rd percentiles for his previous two seasons, I probably would’ve kept my mouth shut. But Alcantara didn’t just increase his velocity, his strikeout rate has risen another point to 24.0% K%, while his 6.0% BB% is down from 8.7% in 2020 and 9.7% in 2019.

If we get the same version in 2022, the only thing that will keep him from being a fantasy ace would (again) be a lack of wins, which is usually on the table when the Marlins are in the equation. In 13 starts this season, Alcantara failed to pick up a win after allowing two or fewer earned runs, allowing just one run or less in nine of those starts.

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Sean Manaea, OAK (+1.8 mph)

Manaea is a soft-tossing lefty no more, with his sinker averaging 92.2 mph in 2021, after sitting 89-90 mph for the rest of his career. Not that 92 mph makes him a flamethrower but it’s a lot better than that high-80’s cheese he was serving previously.

The damage done against his sinker in 2021 has stayed virtually the same as in 2020, with batters posting a .334 wOBA and .334 xwOBA against it in 2020, and a .334 wOBA and .332 xwOBA so far this year. But the whiffs have gone back up, rising to a 25.5% Whiff% after dipping to a 15.7% Whiff% in 2020. In turn, the strikeouts have come back too, with a 25.8% K% that is up from 20.3%.

I suspect the Manaea we’ll see in 2022 will look a lot like what we got in 2021 – a top 35-40 SP who gets deep enough into games to give some upside with wins but who will also occasionally get rocked by home runs when the sinker isn’t sinking.

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Trevor Rogers, MIA (+0.9 mph)

There is probably going to be a lot of Rogers in my life in 2022 and I certainly won’t be the only one after the Miami lefty looked dominant for most 2021, currently sitting at a 2.67 ERA (2.61 FIP) and 28.3% K% over his 24 starts. He’s only been a top-35 starter in 12-team leagues according to the Fangraphs auction calculator but is only that low because a combination of innings restrictions and missing most of August due to family emergencies have limited him to just 128 IP. But on a start-by-start basis, his value has been elite.

With the velocity up and the spin remaining staying mostly steady, it’s not surprising that the horizontal break on his four-seamer has decreased, dropping from 13.5 inches to 11.1 inches. But also bear in mind that Rogers only pitched 28 innings in 2020, throwing his four-seamer just 308 times. But the decrease in break didn’t matter, as the pitch was elite according to Run Value, with Rogers’ -13 RV coming in at the 12th-lowest among starting pitchers.

The increased velocity certainly didn’t hurt his four-seamer but what it really does is give him even more separation between it and his devastating, table-rolling changeup. Given no innings restrictions, 2022 is setting up to be Rogers’ true arrival in fantasy and might also be the last time he can be had outside of the first few rounds.

Trevor Rogers, 95mph Fastball and 88mph Changeup, Individual Pitches + Overlay/Tails pic.twitter.com/S91pj9FLhO

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 14, 2021