Steamer Says Bust

Last time on “Steamer Says”, we turned the first Steamer projections of 2022 into values using the FanGraphs auction calculator to see how they compared to the ranks available in the current NFBC draft room. Using those differences as a guide, I took a look at four hitters that Steamer had valued higher and dug deeper to see if we should agree.

We also talked about my belief that failing to pay attention to those ranks is to throw away a valuable tool. While site ranks shouldn’t necessarily inform your valuations of players, they will often inform the decisions of some of your opponents. Whether conscious or unconscious, bias can be a powerful force and I’ll take any and all advantages I can find when drafting.

Unfortunately, there seemed to be some confusion about what I considered the least important part of this equation, so let me clarify (and apologize). I don’t think it matters, even a little bit, where the numbers (stats, projections, ranks, etc) provided in your chosen draft room (whether NFBC or otherwise) comes from. They could be based on the upcoming year, the last year, or some combination of both; it could even be an “Infinite Monkey Theorem“-type situation. It’s all moot to me.

What matters, at least for the scope of my overall point on leveraging biases, is that the numbers do exist and are front and center. Their origin story is mostly inconsequential. But most of the major platforms do use their own projections in their draft rooms and I see site-rank (and projection) biases as being universal, independent of how clear they are about what you are seeing. Regardless, I apologize for not making that more clear and for even using the word “projection”.

Getting back into things, today we’ll check out the inverse, identifying the hitters that Steamer has valued far lower than their current ranking in the NFBC draft room and then dig deeper into four more players. Let’s go.

*Steamer hitter ranks were generated with the Fangraphs auction calculator using the NFBC format. Positional adjustments were removed and catchers were removed from the ranks entirely, as not to falsely inflate their values for those who aren’t playing in two-catcher leagues. And personally speaking, I believe catchers should always be kept separate when determining values, regardless of format.

 

 

Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Free Agent
Steamer Says: 614 PA – 23 HR – 82 R – 76 RBI – 7 SB – .251 AVG
STM Hitter Rank: #96
NFBC Hitter Rank: #42 (#67 overall)

As Bryant is currently an unrestricted free agent, much of this could quickly change depending on his eventual destination. But for now, Steamer is projecting numbers that don’t seem to justify the top-100 draft price he seems likely to command in 2022.

Our own Ben Clemons (and others) see Bryant resigning with the Giants as a likely possibility, with the Mets and Mariners also popping up as possible destinations. None of those parks will do Bryant any favors and while Seattle is an up-and-comer, the Mets remain…Well, the Mets.

Putting free agency aside, is Steamer right to project such mundane numbers for Bryant in 2022, with the FanGraphs auction calculator valuing him as a borderline top-100 hitter? He did, after all, have a fine bounce-back in 2021 following an injury-plagued 2020, slashing .265/.353/.481 over 586 PA, with 25 HR, 86 R, 73 RBI, and 10 SB. Those numbers may not look flashy but they were good enough to be near a top-50 hitter with most formats.

And looking back at the past, the 2021 version of Bryant looked a lot like what we saw in 2018-19; past the highs of 2016-17 but still a steady performer:

However, when we break 2021 down by pre- and post-trade, some differences do emerge:

And when taking a look at his counting stats broken down by per-PA, similar dips persisted, even as his supporting cast in San Francisco was far superior to what he left in Chicago:

Whether in his plate discipline or batted-ball profile, not much has changed with Bryant the past few years and I don’t expect it to in 2022. The guy is just steady.

But what did change last season was going from a home park that is above-average for right-handed hitters (and which high winds will occasionally turn into Coors Field) to one of the worst in baseball. And even if the skills remain the same, parks can still take a bite out of your lines.

Just for fun, here are all of the balls Bryant hit in the air last season (min. 350 feet), overlayed in Chicago and San Francisco:

Playing the “what if?” game with Baseball Savant’s xHR leaderboard, Bryant had an expected 28 HR at Wrigley Field but just 22 HR at Oracle Park, with only one of his 26 HR (including the playoffs), getting labeled a “no-doubter”. And to cast further doubt on the general transferability of his power stroke, of the 73 players who hit at least 25 HR in 2021, Bryant’s 22.6 xHR was the second-lowest, while his 3.0 HR-xHR was the third-highest.

In a home park vacuum, Bryant going around the top-100 seems perfectly reasonable. But until we know where he’ll be playing in 2022, that’ll be a pass for me.

Austin Meadows, OF, TB
Steamer Says: 613 PA – 26 HR – 78 R – 84 RBI – 7 SB – .245 AVG
STM Hitter Rank:#89
NFBC Hitter Rank: #64 (#104 Overall)

I’m fully on board with Steamer in projecting Meadows as a bad ROI in 2022 because while he’s ranked at #64 on NFBC that price would have to drop far further for him to find his way to my rosters.

For one, while he was improved against them in 2021 compared to 2020, Meadows has continued to struggle against left-handed pitching since posting an .837 OPS and .346 wOBA (.337 xwOBA) against them in 2019. He then dropped all the way to a .391 OPS and .184 wOBA (.211 xwOBA) in the shortened 2020 campaign (only 41 PA) before “rebounding” with a .563 OPS and .251 wOBA (.277 xwOBA) over 189 PA this season.

If you’re in a daily-moves league, some of these struggles can at least be mitigated with diligent roster management/construction. And if Meadows still played for the Pirates (or some other lesser team), his struggles vs LHP wouldn’t worry me as much. I’m just more confident with less-competitive teams being more comfortable playing someone of his caliber in all situations, regardless of splits.

But whether hitter or pitcher, I suppose it boils down to just not trusting that Kevin Cash and the Rays will always do what is best for a player’s fantasy value. In fact, I think Cash may have a secret vendetta against fantasy players and bases most of his decisions on what he thinks will hurt us the most. Ok, probably not. But the Rays continue to be some of baseball’s most forward thinkers and will generally try to maximize the value they can find in any and all margins. And splits issues tend to not exactly be their bag.

I get it; even with the problems vs LHP, Meadows still wound up with 27 HR and 106 RBI in 2021 and those numbers don’t just grow on trees. But our guy ran a .198 wOBA/.465 OPS vs LHP in the second half last season, after a .281 wOBA/.619 OPS in the first half and the aforementioned .184 wOBA/.391 OPS in 2020.

At what point do the Rays mostly give up on letting him face lefties? And if so, how much does he have to produce vs RHP to be worth his likely cost?

Matt Chapman, 3B/OF, OAK (for now)
Steamer Says: 640 PA – 28 HR – 76 R – 83 RBI – 3 SB – .220 AVG
STM Hitter Rank: #150
NFBC Rank:#109 (#179 Overall)

I luckily didn’t have any exposure to Chapman in 2020, as the Oakland third baseman – led by a career-worst .210 AVG – finished below replacement for the second-straight year. But my lacking was due to actual (not metaphorical) luck, as it had more to do with draft circumstances than lack of interest. The combination of Chapman’s draft stock dropping (~90 ADP in 2020, ~120 ADP in 2021) after an injury- (and pandemic) shortened season – along with some juicy power metrics – had led me to believe he’d be on more than a few of my teams.

But the fantasy wheel weaves as the Wheel wills and Chapman and I stayed unacquainted. Whew! Dodged that bullet! So, obviously, the move is to learn my lesson and…go right back in on him? Wait, that can’t be right, can it?

Steamer doesn’t think it is, projecting Chapman for above-average HR and RBI production but average in runs while staying a big batting average drag and with but a bag, or two. But in the second half, Chapman did show some of the same positive signs that got me a little hot and bothered heading into last season – at least in regards to the power getting back to its previous levels:

Keep in mind that there was a baseball change in 2021 so it’s harder to make direct comparisons for EV-based metrics but I think it is safe to compare 2021 by halves and Chapman certainly did improve by large margins. But while putting some juice on the ball seems to be less of an issue, he will actually have to make contact first. Chapman posted a 22.8% K% for 2018-19 combined, with a 9.0% SwStr% and 74.1% Contact% but has run a 33.1% K% over the past two seasons, with a 13.6% SwStr% and 61.8% Contact%.

Fortunately, even as his whiffiness has continued to climb, Chapman has given us some hope for the future of his batting average woes, also showing drastic improvements in the second half. Just kidding, things actually got way worse, as he posted a .185 AVG that was down from a .227 AVG and a .189 xBA that was down from a .219 xBA. Woof.

Ranked at #179 on NFBC (and taken at #178 in the DC I am currently drafting), Chapman’s probably going to suck me in, even with a bad batting average that I don’t have much hope for. But batting average can be worked around and I do love the power potential at such a (relatively) discounted price.

But besides drafting him for what is known, I also think there is also a big advantage in drafting Chapman for the unknown in earlier drafts, as his circumstances could dramatically change for the better by the time spring training rolls around. Because if you haven’t heard yet, Oakland is in a selling state of mind and the chances of Chapman getting moved seem awfully high. And while we don’t have any idea where he’ll eventually land, the chances of him being in a better lineup and/or a better park, seem fairly decent, considering the lower bar of what he’d be leaving behind.

Barring a big change, Chapman’s batting average liabilities and lack of stolen bases will limit his overall upside but I’m fine with using a pick outside of the top-150 to grab someone with his potential in the other three categories.

Adolis García, OF, TEX
Steamer Says: 659 PA – 28 HR – 72 R – 86 RBI – 13 SB – .227 AVG
STM Hitter Rank: #109
NFBC Hitter Rank: #79 (#131 Overall)

I blame situations like this on the Turner-Bautista* Hope Index, in which a previously mediocre hitter goes on to great success after figuring things in their late-20’s.

*Not to be confused with the Odor-Bautista Corollary, in which being punched in the face by Rougned Odor is a corollary for looking like Jose Bautista.

When we used to see an older minor leaguer come out of nowhere to light things up for a few months, the general assumption would be that their previous track record would eventually catch back up to them. But that metaphorical script is more often flipped in this golden age of analytical-based improvements, and we now sometimes seem more willing to believe that any nuclear stretch could equal a permanent profile change. And because the pull of FOMO can often be powerful.

Make no mistake, García’s spring was certainly two months of atom-splitting, as the 28-year-old went full fission down in Texas, hitting 16 home runs in 186 PA and ending May tied for the major league lead. But it wasn’t just the pop, as he also entered June with 41 RBI and 6 SB, slashing .286/.323/.589, with a .380 wOBA.

And then?

Lest you think this might’ve been a case where the actual results didn’t match the expected ones…They did:

Whether expected or not, it’s hard to find light in what García did following his springtime explosion, as his numbers didn’t just dip; they dodged, ducked, dived, and dodged their way out of fantasy relevance:

Looking at some key power indicators, things weren’t any better. García dropped from an 18.9% Brl% to an 8.2% Brl%, while his Air% (100+ mph) decreased from 46.4% to 39.8%. When you whiff as much as he does (31.2% K%, 17.2% SwStr%), the power really can’t afford to do any suffering. And García isn’t just a prime whiffer, he’s a zone-whiffer too, with a 47.4% zWhiff% placing him in the 8th percentile for 2021, even as his 74.5% zSwing% puts him in the 84th percentile.

Perhaps García will get on base enough to leverage his speed and make up for the fantasy value lost if there isn’t a return to the big power we saw early. But while he finished with 16 SB, six of those came during his hot start, while seven more came in September. And I generally find it hard to trust good stolen base numbers in September from players on bad teams. Especially when four of those came against fellow basement dwellers (BAL, LAA) in the last week(ish) of the season.

At the time of your draft, you might feel a slight sting if you keep passing on García, as your heart may want to keep chasing the tantalizing dragon that is a power/speed combo. But that’s just hope screwing with you.