Second Half Batting Average Fades

We’re over halfway through the season and have entered the prime trading season, with many deadlines coming at the end of July. This means teams that are contending but not cruising, will likely need to make some moves to address their deficiencies by (hopefully) moving their surpluses.

Last time out, we took a look at some starting pitchers who’ve gotten a majority of their value from ERAs that might not be sustainable. Now let’s switch over to the hitters and look at some players whose value could take a hit if they see their batting average swoon in the second half.

Just like with the pitchers, this isn’t about saying that Player X will be worse at baseball in the second half. This is about identifying who has put most of their eggs in one basket and whether you need to bake in some regression for the rest of the way. Whether it’s to make a trade or just adjust your categorical expectations, the more you know, the better you can prepare.

We’ll start with the players whose batting average has currently earned a minimum of $1.0, according to the FanGraphs auction calculator for 12-team leagues (5×5 classic roto). Included are their total value (Value), rank by total hitter value (Value Rk), batting average value ($ Avg), and rank by batting average value (Rk Avg). Also included are their batting average, xBA-BA, and BABIP for 2021, as well as their career marks.

Adam Frazier, PIT, Hitter #66

413 PA: .327 AVG – .297 xBA – .363 BABIP

Considering how much Adam Frazier is in my life right now, I really don’t want to jinx anything in what has been a terrific bounce-back season after he slashed .230/.297/.364 over 58 games in 2020. And before you go poo-pooing a lowly Pirate, take note that the light-hitting keystoner is the #6 second baseman according to the auction calculator. Not too shabby for someone with a post-500 ADP entering the season.

Frazier is currently slashing .327/.390/.453 over 413 PA (t-2nd most) but most of his overall value is being carried by his .327 AVG, with his 55 runs scored the only other category tracking above average. And therein lies the risk.

Even playing for the Pirates, Frazier’s spot at the top of the order should keep him as a low-budget compiler of runs. But with no power (4 HR) and RBI opportunities unlikely to increase (see: Pirates, Pittsburgh), Frazier will likely need his batting average to keep carrying the load in the second half. However, even as he’s stayed hot in the summer, posting a .340 AVG over the last 30 days, that excellent average seems backed by some cracked mirrors.

Frazier’s .297 xBA in 2021 (career .274 xBA) is a 30-point drop from his batting average, while his .363 BABIP (5th-highest among qualified batters) is over 50-points higher than his career average. Not only is that a career-high but Frazier hasn’t run over a .306 BABIP since a .353 BABIP in his 2016 rookie season (160 PA). When (or if) those numbers adjust back down to nearer his career ones, the batting average will naturally suffer.

This is the problem with one- and two-trick ponies. If most of your value is wrapped up in those tricks then the fall will be harder when the baseball “luck” gods come a-knockin’. For those who managed to keep their batting average high and dry with this waiver-wire hero, we salute you. But be prepared because the weather forecast is calling for showers with a chance of heavy pain.

Michael Brantley, HOU, Hitter #77

326 PA: .331 AVG – .326 xBA – .359 BABIP

Michael Brantley may only have the 5th-highest earnings from his batting average but that’s only because his league-leading .331 AVG doesn’t come with the bulk plate appearances that those in front of him have managed.

But like a worse version of Frazier from above, this is about the only trick Brantley has:

To be fair, his 47 runs are a bit of a half-trick with promise, as batting second for one of baseball’s best offenses should serve him well. However, as good as Houston’s offense is, the bottom of the order is littered with OBP holes like Abraham Toro (.279 OBP), Martin Maldonaldo (.263 OBP), and Chaz McCormick (.308 OBP), so I’m not optimistic for an uptick in RBI chances. Especially if Jose Altuve keeps dropping dingers like it’s 2019.

As far as counting on more home runs and steals, Brantley has yet to even attempt a stolen base in 2021 and is only averaging one home run per 54 PA – that’s down from an average of once per 36 PA from 2014-2020. Perhaps the 34-year-old Brantley finds some (relatively) old-man strength and goes on a homer binge but I have my doubts. And I’m pretty sure there is no such thing as “old-man speed”, so I’m out on more bags, too.

That leaves the one trick – and a great trick it is – as Brantley’s value piece. I don’t necessarily think the bottom is going to drop out of his average, as his is a proven hit tool; Brantley has a career .299 AVG, with a .292 xBA. But his .359 BABIP in 2021 is well above average, and above his career .328 BABIP. And as steady as he’s been, things have been correcting a bit lately, with Brantley posting a .284 AVG over the last 30 days, with a .281 xBA, and .299 BABIP.

David Fletcher, LAA, Hitter #76

378 PA: .315 AVG – .282 xBA – .349 BABIP

Fletcher has continued his batting average excellence in 2021, posting a .314 AVG for the season and earning the seventh-most fantasy value in the category. But while his 54 runs scored are above average, 38 RBI are not. And his 5 SB are better than nothing but the light-hitting leadoff man with 2 HR obviously won’t be hitting a power surge.

Much like Frazier and Brantley before, a great majority of Fletcher’s fantasy value is tied up by one category, making him that much more vulnerable to hitting slumps. Not that he’s in a slump now, though. Over the last month (103 PA), Fletcher is slashing .390/.408/.550, with a .410 wOBA and 164 wRC+, hitting all two of his home runs in that period. So, maybe a power surge is coming? I kid, I kid.

His .348 BABIP is slightly higher than the .327 BABIP for his career but is also the exact same as in 2020. And his .271 xBA is over 40-points lower than his .314 AVG but it’s worth noting that Fletcher only has a .282 xBA for his career but a .297 AVG, so perhaps we shouldn’t judge his expected rates so harshly.

Among the rest of the batting average stars, Fletcher might be my safest bet to keep returning his current value. I believe in the average sticking around and while I’m not counting on much in the home run and RBI department, he should continue to steal the occasional bag. And I’m bullish on his runs scored, as he bats leadoff in front of real-life video game character, Shohei Ohtani, as well as a recently returning (and resurgent) Justin Upton. Oh, and the Angels should get some guy named Trout back soon.

A great hit stick and batting in front of Ohtani, Trout, and Upton? Yes, please.

Buster Posey, SFG, Hitter #80

249 PA: .333 AVG – .286 xBA – .368 BABIP

Another one of the “saved Nicklaus’s fantasy bacon” all-stars, Posey has hit the rewind button in 2021, arguably putting up his best numbers since winning the MVP in 2012. However, while the power and batting average looks like Posey from the past, his 38 R (4th among catchers) and 30 RBI (15th among catchers) look less so. And the RBI, in particular, have really dried up as of late; since June 1, Posey has 9 RBI, with five of those coming in two games.

It’s hard to cast aspersions on the #2 catcher but his .333 AVG has gotten emptier and emptier the further we get away from a gang-busting April:

San Francisco is a top-10 offense and Posey bats in the middle of it, so opportunities are unlikely to just dry up but much of the pressure on his total value will remain on his batting average. And while Posey has a .303 AVG for his career, counting on him keeping up his current rate could be a dangerous game.

Raimel Tapia, COL, Hitter #42

373 PA: .282 AVG – .254 xBA – .317 BABIP

We’ll start with the big caveat; he plays in Colorado, so anything is possible. Ok, now that we have that out of the way, let’s see what’s on Tapia.

Tapia might play his home games at an offensive haven but that only helps so much. Especially when you’re surrounded by one of baseball’s worst offenses. The Rockies have a 76 wRC+ that’s the worst in baseball and only an 86 wRC+ at home; that’s the second-worst.

He’s currently running above average in his runs scored but call me pessimistic on expecting anything more. And while batting leadoff will limit your RBI opportunities on most teams, it’s going to be exacerbated when the players batting in front of you are the likes of Sam Hilliard, Josh Fuentes, and Elias Diaz.

Tapia’s expected stats aren’t currently hiding any hope, either, with his .282 AVG backed by a .254 xBA, and his .315 wOBA backed by a .286 xwOBA. And looking at his numbers on balls put in play, things are just as dire. Tapia has a .335 wOBAcon and .299 xwOBAcon, posting a .202 wOBAcon and .240 xwOBAcon over the last month.

But unlike some of the other players we’ve covered, batting average is not Tapia’s carrying trait. That honor goes to his 16 SB that are tied for the sixth-most in baseball. However, if math and logic have taught us anything, it’s that stealing bases is a lot harder when you don’t get on base. And Tapia has been ice cold for the past month, slashing .188/.278/.217, with a .234 wOBA and 30 wRC+. But to be fair, he’s made the most of his limited opportunities, with half of his stolen bases coming over that period.

Given the speed, Tapia might be vital to your roster construction, even if the batting average continues to decline. Just be aware of how much his other categories could drag you down.