It’s Never Too Early for (More) Sleepers*

What’s better than sleepers? That’s right. More sleepers!!

Last time out we briefly laid out how loose I am with my definition of sleeper before taking a deeper look at two players I think will actualize my said nebulous designation. Tl;dr: I see sleepers as players who have some combination of high-ROI and low-hype. Also, designating sleepers before actionable ADP is available is basically a guessing game. See? Loose.

After choosing a player from Detroit and Kansas City the last time out, we might as well keep this AL Central tour of sadness going. Let’s get things started by taking some big deep breaths, in and out, listening to nothing but the sound of my voice. In and out. Now relax your breath and relax your inner self as we all get very, very sleepy. In-nnn…and out.

Myles Straw, OF Cleveland Guardians

• 1st Half: 332 PA – 2 HR – 40 R – 28 RBI – 13 SB – .266 AVG
• 2nd Half: 306 PA – 2 HR – 46 R – 20 RBI – 17 SB – .276 AVG

You’ve now gotten so relaxed that you don’t even mind that we’re waking up in Cleveland. But unfortunately, there are few things that get me all hot and bothered with sleepiness quite like a possible leadoff batter on a bad team. And if he happens to have speed, you don’t even have to buy me a drink…Why, hello there, Mr. Straw.

We finally got to answer the question of what would happen if the speedster got full-time at-bats, as Straw ended 2021 with 638 PA between Houston and Cleveland. And all he did with them was slash .271/.349/.348, with 30 SB, finishing as the #67 hitter overall on the Razzball player rater.

Like India later on, I think there is a wide range of where Straw’s ADP might shake out, so his sleeper status may be quickly revoked. And I’m more worried about Straw because, unlike India, he has a flashy carrying tool and shiny things are found more often. However, as a counterpoint, things like hope and air quality are also quickly lost in Cleveland so perhaps Straw will be too.

But I’m going to be all high on speed in 2022 and Straw certainly has it in spades, racking up premium stolen base rates at every level on the strength of his elite wheels, both in terms of his 29.3 ft/sec Sprint Speed (96th percentile) or his 4.12 sec HP to 1B time (8th-highest in 2021). But the speed isn’t a secret and isn’t much of a question; if Straw plays, he will steal. This is known.

The real question is whether Straw will hit enough to properly take advantage of his speed, as well as keep the leadoff spot in Cleveland (and all of the plate appearances that will come with it). Because one of the big keys to being a bad-team leadoff hitter fantasy star is getting the compiler-multiplier* applied to their counting stats, as it can help cushion the blow of holes in their game.

*Compiler-Multiplier [kuhm-pai-lr muhl-tuh-plai-ur]:

1. The totally real mathematical phenomenon by which an intensifying effect is applied to the counting stats of any hitter (regardless of skill) who plays every day, simply because they get to keep coming to the plate. 
2. The answer to the question: “How did (any hitter who is suspect but still played every day) end up with (counting stat that seems higher than it should be)?

There is no doubt that you’re punting power with Straw, as < 5 HR is the most likely outcome but he wouldn’t be raising as much of a white flag on RBI as you might think if he stays at leadoff all year. Is 60 RBI on the table? Umm, probably not, considering what the bottom of Cleveland’s lineup will likely look like. But 50 RBI is and that’ll be just fine for me considering his other categorical contributions.

While Cleveland’s offense as a whole will likely still be subpar, Straw will still have the power of José Ramírez and Franmil Reyes batting behind him, which, along with the aforementioned compiler-multiplier, could lead to Straw again being a plus-contributor in runs scored. In the second half last year, Straw collected 46 runs, putting him in a similar company with premium leadoff hitters like Starling Marte (45 R), Whit Merrifield (47 R), and Bo Bichette (50 R). And 60 of those 72 games came in Cleveland, not Houston.

But will Straw get on base? He didn’t in the shortened 2020 season, posting just a .209 AVG and .244 OBP over 86 PA but basically has at every other stop since he started professional ball:

His 79% Contact% (70th percentile) in 2021 stayed virtually identical from half to half and is more in line with a 78% Contact% in 2019 after falling to just a 73% Contact% in 2020. His 11% BB% also stayed steady all year, as did his excellent 5% SwStr%, though his 19% Chase% did rise from 17% in the first half to 22% in the second. But that isn’t exactly a warning flag considering the other ways Straw has shown that he doesn’t like to whiff.

Adding together his plate discipline, above-average walk and contact rates, along with the type of speed that should add to his batted-ball “luck”, seems like a pretty decent recipe for getting on base. And once he gets on, we all know that Myles is going to motor. Which is something that should serve you well in a fantasy world where stolen bases continue to collapse in on themselves like a dying star.

Jonathan India, 2B/3B, Cincinnati Reds

• 1st Half: 316 PA – 6 HR – 42 R – 35 RBI – 7 SB – .275 AVG
• 2nd Half: 315 PA – 15 HR – 56 R – 34 RBI – 5 SB – .263 AVG

Here is a case where someone’s sleepiness factor may be totally negated once ADPs start rolling in, as I don’t have a good handle on where I think he’ll end up. But I feel like it’ll be outside of the top-100 when I think his production floor should warrant being inside it. Because while he did finish as the #50 hitter in 2021 according to the Razzball player rater, his overall value was driven by well-rounded categorical production, not one or two big tools. This is another way of saying none of his numbers jump off of the page, thereby (hopefully) reducing his fantasy sex appeal and putting a governor on any draft hype trains that might try to get rolling in the offseason.

Or, I could be totally wrong and the crowd could go full-Gleyber on India, completely waking him up with a top-75 ADP.  So, perhaps for now, he should only be given a provisional sleepy designation. We must always follow proper sleeper protocols, after all.

Regardless of designation, India has a lot working in his fantasy favor, starting with just what his general circumstances should be in 2022.

1. He took over the leadoff spot on June 5 and never gave it back, starting every game there for the remainder of the season. Cincinnati’s lineup in 2022 is going to feature many of the same guys (unless they make a trade), so India batting leadoff again seems a smart bet. If that is the case, then just the PA bump he’ll get will naturally accumulate more counting stats.
2. After scoring 98 runs in 2021, India’s leadoff spot should continue to be especially fruitful in terms of runs scored. Nick Castellanos is likely to depart in free agency but Jesse Winker is a contact machine (82.3% Contact% in 2021, 87th percentile) and I’m a big believer in Joey Votto’s continuing power.
3. India (and everybody hitting behind him) gets to play half of his games in the Great American bandbox. This is a good thing for everyone but especially when you bake in India’s second-half improvements in getting the ball in the air, raising his Air% (FB+LD) from 45.3% to 52.5%. Getting the ball in the air is the way to go at the GAB and I’m hopeful his teammate Votto can keep him on the flyball path.

While we’re speaking of his home park advantage, just for fun, here are all of India’s hits on the road in 2021 that went at least 350 feet, overlayed in Cincinnati:

 

Besides all of the above positive circumstances from above, there is also a lot to like about what India did at the plate, especially in the second half. Going back to those improvements on getting the ball in the air, India increased his average launch angle from 10 degrees to 16 degrees and dropped his groundball rate by 10 points to 40%. He also pulled the ball a lot more rising from a 43% Pull% in the first half to a 54% Pull% in the second half. But he saw an even bigger jump in his rate of pulling balls in the air (Air% Pull%), increasing from 35% (69th) to 54% (100th percentile). 100th is nice too, right?

Pulling flyballs doesn’t mean much, though, if they’re slapped with the weak sauce but fortunately, India’s exit velocities also got more juiced up as the season went on. His 8% Brl% (52nd percentile) rose to 11% Brl% (71st percentile), his Barrel% (100+ mph) increased to 10% (77th percentile) from 7% (51st percentile), and his Air% (100+ mph) rose from 29% (42nd percentile) to 33% (66th percentile). Not that these increases move India into the elite tiers but once again, any power increase gets magnified when your home ballpark is as good as Cincinnati’s is.

And this wasn’t a case of someone abandoning plate discipline in favor of selling out for power, as India’s eye got even better in the second half. His 22% K% for the season stayed virtually identical from half to half but he dropped from a 10% SwStr% to a 7% SwStr%. And while his already excellent 22% Chase% only dropped slightly in the second half, in the zone was a different story. India increased his in-zone Contact% by nearly three points and dropped his in-zone Whiff% from 21% (34th percentile) to 14% (72nd percentile).

India contributes in all categories, bats leadoff, and has excellent plate discipline and improving power metrics in a ballpark where you don’t need as much to get balls up and out. These are a few of my favorite things so hopefully, the hype train never gets rolling that fast across what I think might be a fantasy subcontinent in 2022.