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Waiver Wire & FAAB Report (Preseason)

While a couple of rookie hitters (Scott and Rafaela) might have been unexpected a month ago, most of the changes are with pitchers, especially relievers. Also, I have three drafts and an auction this weekend, so this is most likely the final report for the weekend. On Sunday morning I might add a few names.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1273 – How the Main Event Impacts ADP

3/22/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

  • Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
  • Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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NFBC Online Auction Championship Live Stream

Tonight, I will be drafting my third and final $150 NFBC Online Auction Championship team. This is a 15-team, 5×5 Roto league with an overall prize pool. You can see the live draft board here Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – Draft & Auction Recap Episode w/ Justin Mason

The Draft & Auction Recap episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Justin Mason

Strategy Section

  • TGFBI
    • What is TGFBI?
    • KDS Selections
    • Draft plan & execution
    • Freddie Freeman as a 1st rounder
    • Nico Hoerner as a draft linchpin
    • Relief Pitcher darts at the end of drafts
    • How much risk to take on, and when?
    • TGFBI Average Draft Position trends
  • Auctions
    • Differences between snake drafts and auctions
    • What is it like to draft against?
      • Ariel Cohen
      • Justin Mason
    • Adjusting draft strategy based on other owners’ tendencies
    • Coming to auction tables with market values
    • Hitter / Pitcher % Split
    • How to handle Ronald Acuna Jr. in auctions?
    • Online vs. in-person auctions
    • 12-team vs. 15-team auctions
  • LABR Mixed Auction Recap
    • Justin
      • Stars & Scrubs hitting
      • Low cost pitching
      • Late game / low valued injury darts
      • 3 Closers
    • Ariel
      • Big catcher spending
      • High value starting pitching
      • How to make up for the loss of Devin Williams
    • Trading leagues vs. non-trading leagues
  • Tout Mixed Auction Recap
  • Drafting as a proxy for a team’s owner
  • Tout Head to Head Recap
    • Do you need to follow the market’s Hitter / Pitcher % split in points leagues?
    • Nominating catchers early on
    • Salvador Perez’s value
    • Factoring in the HTH playoff format into player valuation

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1272 – Closer Carnage and SP Injury Updates

3/21/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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2024 Fantasy Hitter Breakouts – Sporer’s Picks

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “Breakout”. These are guys I like at their market rate and have them outperforming their draft cost. One of my inclusions is the best player of this generation and yet, he’s also the cheapest we’ve ever seen because of consistent health issues. Breakout, Sleeper, whatever your term is… these are the guys I like buying because they can deliver a strong profit.


Changelog

  • 3/21/2024: Moved Merrill up a tier to account for his ADP rise; update on LeMahieu’s health
  • 3/9/2024: Initial list

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

Top 100 Bargains

Top 100 Bargains
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Marcus Semien TEX 2B 31 $18
2 Mike Trout LAA OF 70 $19
3 Oneil Cruz PIT SS 73 $12

It’s hard to come up with bargain-type players in the very early rounds, but Jeff gave y’all four in the Top 50 so I wanted to come up with at least a couple. I don’t want to overstate things and pretend like Marcus Semien is disrespected, but I do feel like the modern-day Ironman could easily go 10-12 picks higher without incident and in fact does on occasion with a minimum pick of 20. That should be his average pick as far as I’m concerned. He has missed just 1 game in the last four full seasons, leading MLB in plate appearances for all four. He isn’t just some mediocre compiler, toting 124, 131, and 138 wRC+ totals in three of those four seasons while averaging 27 HR-13 SB-94 R-77 RBI per 600 PA. But sure, take CJ Abrams ahead of him.

Yes, it feels crazy to have Mike Trout on a breakout/sleeper list and yet here we are! I obviously understand the issues with his health, but he never actually performs poorly when on the field and so I’m more than willing to take the discounted price in hopes of him spiking a 130+ game season this year while enjoying the games I do get if he does wind up falling short again. He obviously looks good by every projection system and he’s healthy right now so let’s ride with one of the best players to ever lace ‘em up.

I haven’t been shy about my desire to simply wait on Oneil Cruz instead of paying the insane premium for Elly De La Cruz, something I even said in my Busts articles that featured EDLC. Cruz brings a bit of risk himself coming off a 9-game season thanks to a broken leg last year and has just 98 games of MLB experience in all, but his electric set of skills seems primed to breakthrough as long as his health cooperates, and I haven’t been afraid to buy in.

Breakouts from 101-299

Breakouts from 101-299
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
4 Evan Carter TEX OF 128 $5
5 Anthony Volpe NYY SS 126 $5
6 Gabriel Moreno ARI C 155 $12
7 Jack Suwinski PIT OF 240 $1
8 Jackson Merrill SDP SS (+OF in-season) 271 -$1

Evan Carter isn’t a risk-free pick as there is some concern that he will sit against lefties, but I’m a sucker for young players with brilliant plate discipline and speed as well as enough pop to do some damage while being part of a premium lineup.

Anthony Volpe grinded through his rookie season with just an 84 wRC+, but the Yankees stayed committed to him for 601 PA and he managed to grind out a 21 HR/24 SB season. Meanwhile, his biggest weakness – the glove – became a strength resulting in a Gold Glove win. The underwhelming slash line now has his ADP trending lower than it did last year when he hadn’t taken a major league plate appearance which is wild to me. The 23-year-old still has a sky-high ceiling and while a repeat wouldn’t necessarily be worth his ADP, I’m willing to take the risk because the upside is a Top 25 hitter.

Gabriel Moreno’s first big MLB sample (380 PA) was just OK with a 103 wRC+, 7 HR, and 6 SBs. That said, his .284 AVG was 2nd among Cs with at least 350 PA and he had a postseason power surge with 4 HRs in 70 PA during the Diamondbacks run to the World Series generating some excitement for his age-24 season. The standout AVG gives him a solid floor to build upon while a mix of power improvement and more playing time could double that home run total. Another 6+ SBs is a sneaky bonus contribution as well. He has multiple avenues toward a breakout campaign.

A paltry .224 AVG and residence on one of the league’s worst teams keep Jack Suwinski’s profile low. His proponents see the 26 HR/13 SB and 112 wRC+ as reasons to buy Captain Jack. He offsets his 32% K rate with a robust 14% BB rate which fueled a 115-point split between his AVG and OBP, putting him in position to keep his SB opportunities up even when the hits aren’t falling. A league average 11% swinging strike rate and 6th-best Chase rate in baseball (22%; lg. avg is 32%) say he’s just not flailing up there and could even improve the K rate with some adjustments, too. That Pirates lineup is laced with upside candidates and could be spry enough to deliver a solid boost to Suwinski’s 63 R and 74 RBI totals, too.

Jackson Merrill is battling for a roster spot in Spring Training and helping his case by shifting to the outfield. Outside of Tatis, the SD outfield is barren which has created this fantastic opportunity for Merrill to make the team. He has a contact-heavy approach that has driven a .295 AVG in 881 minor league plate appearances along with 14 HR/21 SB per 600 PA. He’s a longshot for a massive breakout and intsead might only be something like a .265 AVG with a double-double – essentially something akin to Jeremy Peña’s 2023 – but as a post-300 pick instead of a top 120 pick like Peña was last year, that’s a nice return. Mar. 21st update: He has made the team as a starting outfielder and as such, his ADP has surged. I’m still very interested at this price point, but be prepared to pay up now if you still like Merrill!

Breakouts from 301+

Breakouts from 301+
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
9 Alek Thomas ARI OF 353 $0
10 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B/3B 338 -$3

Like my other D-Backs entrant, Alek Thomas enjoyed a postseason power spike that could be a harbinger for the 2024 season. He also hit 4 HR and only needed 59 PA to do it after just 9 in 402 PA during the regular season. I love betting on young promising bats who use an elite glove to guarantee their playing time as they find their footing at the dish. We haven’t seen a ton from Thomas yet with just a 72 wRC+ in 813 career PA, but he has the speed to boost both his AVG and SB output even if the power doesn’t come through in a significant way this year.

Veterans have upside! DJ LeMahieu is entering his age-35 season coming off a modest 101 wRC+ output in 562 PA. I’m not here to make the case that he’s going to return the .300s with his AVG as he’s at just .258 in his last 1782 PA, but he still takes his walks, sits atop a strong lineup, and even hit 15 HRs last season. His post-300 ADP means I’m not relying on him so if he stays bad, I can easily move, but runs aren’t an easy find late in drafts and there’s a world where he finds one last spurt of health and delivers a .275+ AVG with 85+ R. Unlikely, but far from impossible. Mar. 21st update: A foot injury has put his Opening Day status in doubt a bit. I’m not as aggressively chasing him as much, but there has at least been some good news lately to where he’s not totally off the board.


Full Rankings Without Tiers

No tiers. Just the rankings.
Full Rankings Without Tiers
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Marcus Semien TEX 2B 31 $18
2 Mike Trout LAA OF 70 $19
3 Oneil Cruz PIT SS 73 $12
4 Evan Carter TEX OF 128 $5
5 Anthony Volpe NYY SS 126 $5
6 Gabriel Moreno ARI C 155 $12
7 Jack Suwinski PIT OF 240 $1
8 Jackson Merrill SDP SS (+OF in-season) 271 -$1
9 Alek Thomas ARI OF 353 $0
10 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B/3B 338 -$3

2024 Fantasy Busts – Sporer’s Picks

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

I’m stealing Jeff’s intro for these Busts because it gets the message across clearly and frankly, many of y’all won’t even read this:

I don’t consider busts to be players who have no fantasy value but guys who will disappoint compared to where they are being drafted. There is no reason to take a chance on the player with similar options at similar costs.

Usually, the market will find any flaw in a player and bury them. Because of this, it’s easier to find a reason for a player to beat his draft cost than exceed it. But just as many players will be under their projections than over them by the season’s end.

For busts, we divided the players up by 50 spots of ADP so fantasy managers could consider the players in their league depth. 

Check out Jeff’s picks here!


Changelog

  • 3/21/2024: ADP & Dollar Value updates — I’m still not in on any of this group
  • 2/14/2024: Initial list

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

Busts in the Top 50 ADP

Busts in the Top 50 ADP
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Elly De La Cruz CIN 3B/SS 26 $15
2 CJ Abrams WAS SS 39 $12
3 Tyler Glasnow LAD SP 41 $20

While it might be a little on the nose, it’d be more surprising to not include Elly De La Cruz on a “Bust” list at his insane ADP. I understand the general excitement after the 22-year-old delivered 13 HR/35 SB in just 98 games, but it came with just an 84 wRC+ as the league caught up to him quickly, holding him to a meager .192/.271/.353 line in his final 69 games (not nice). Sure, there’s a world where he makes a sharp adjustment and those dreaming on an extrapolation of those sexy HR/SB numbers strike it rich, but as a Top 25 pick, he almost has to do that to avoid being a big miss. I’d much rather just wait 60 or so picks for Oneil Cruz.

This one is in line with the De La Cruz situation where I understand the desire to invest in the upside, but at this price there is a substantial burden on CJ Abrams to perform and I’m just not sure we can bank on much beyond the SBs. Even during his summer surge when he swiped 38 SBs in 78 games, it came with just a .752 OPS. He hit 11 HRs in that time, too, and 18 in all so I don’t want to suggest he has an empty bat, but I just don’t think he has established the kind of floor I’d like for a Top 50 pick. Both Abrams and De La Cruz should steal enough to not be completely worthless if their bats lag, but I generally like at least some semblance of a plus bat in my Top 50 picks (Abrams 90 wRC+, EDLC 84).

I ranked Tyler Glasnow 12th in my SP rankings so I’m splitting some hairs here as I could see myself taking him somehwere in the 70s or later. I’m just incredibly nervous about making him my ace with a Top 40 pick given that last year’s 120 IP were a career-high. I also worry that his price will only rise if he looks good in Spring Training. I have to admit that I am more open to taking this kind of risk on pitching so this is a softer fade than EDLC and Abrams.

Busts from 51 to 100 ADP

Busts from 51 to 100 ADP
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
4 Nolan Jones COL OF 56 $16
5 Joe Ryan MIN SP 85 $15

Is it lazy to just say “.401 BABIP!” and move on with Nolan Jones? Yes, yes it is. And it’s certainly not just the unsustainable BABIP that has me pushing away from Jones at his elevated price. He is a big strikeout guy which always gives me some pause with a player who is supposed to give me an AVG boost. In fairness, his Ks aren’t built off of flailing at the dish (his 12% SwStr isn’t much worse than the 11% league avg.), but moreso because he runs deep counts waiting for his pitch, happily taking a walk if it doesn’t come but also striking out a ton in the process. His 4.29 pitches per PA would’ve been 5th highest had he qualified, in company with other high-K guys like Kyle Schwarber, Max Muncy, Matt Olson, and teammate Ryan McMahon (Ha-Seong Kim is an interesting outlier as the only guy in that group with just a 20% K rate).

Perhaps the craziest part of Jones’s season was the road work: .935 OPS aided by a .434 BABIP. That’s wild for anyone, but especially bonkers for a Colorado Rockie. I worry that many are dreaming on what his 20/20 production from 106 games will look like for a full season in Coors. I see something like mid-to-high 20s in each category with .250s-type AVG which cuts a Randy Arozarena kind of figure but I’m not sure he can get to the 95 R/83 RBI that Arozarena had as the Rockies haven’t had a 90-R scorer since 2019. I can’t lie, I’m torn on Jones because I like him as a player, but push-come-to-shove I’m inclined to get a cheaper power-speed guy instead of paying a Top 60 pick for Jonesy given his lack of track record. It’s a No-Go for No-Jo in this dojo.

This is always one of my least favorite things in fantasy baseball: having to move off a one-time favorite when their price gets too high. Joe Ryan’s HR issue is growing as his ADP rises. His 1.8 HR9 was 4th-highest last year (min. 160 IP), resulting in a 4.51 ERA. Even his 1.2 mark from 2021-22 would slot 15th and I just worry that his strong K-BB rate won’t be able to counter the HRs and return a Top 100 value. Don’t get me wrong, Ryan does bring a great K rate and strong WHIP to the table but why not just take teammate Bailey Ober 60+ picks later? He has the same profile and just as much upside as far as I’m concerned.

Busts from 101 to 150 ADP

Busts from 101 to 150 ADP
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
6 Zack Gelof OAK 2B 133 $3
7 Esteury Ruiz OAK OF 127 $6
8 Cedric Mullins BAL OF 150 $9

It feels kind of mean to kick Oakland when they’re down, but my next two entries are among the limited bright spots on their team. I think “The Extrapolators” (the people who take a small sample and just extrapolate it out to 600 PA) are playing with fire in thinking Zack Gelof can approach a 30/30 season after his blistering debut (14 HR/SB in 300 PA). I lean way closer to the projections that have him more in the 20/20 range with a sub-.240 AVG and that might not even be a Top 150 hitter, let alone overall. Be careful.

If you’ve been following my work for a while, you know I’m just not a fan of the Rabbit player type aka the SB-only profile. Esteury Ruiz panned out as well as you could hope with an AL-best 67 SBs and landed as a Top 140 player according to the Auction Calculator, but I’m honestly more concerned about what he does to a team build than whether or not he will return enough “value” on his ADP. He is a 4-category negative that and I just don’t know that the SBs are worth it unless you really bolster the rest of your offense to take on Ruiz’s negatives. At that point, I’d rather just take Jorge Mateo at a post-500 ADP.

Y’all, do NOT send this to Justin Mason! It will irreparably damage our relationship, but I’m just not in on Cedric Mullins. Don’t get me wrong, he isn’t some kind of worthless scrub but there are just so many more OF I prefer in his general range. My biggest concern is that if he continues to be a league average-ish bat (99 wRC+), he could start to lose playing time given the seemingly unlimited number of options that Orioles are churning out of their system these days. Mullins is someone who needs volume to sustain his value, especially if he doesn’t turn the tide on his shrinking AVG and BABIP. Justin, if you’re reading this, don’t worry I’m pivoting to another one of your favorites over Mullins as I’d rather just take TJ Friedl at the same ADP.

Busts from 151 to 200 ADP

Busts from 151 to 200 ADP
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
9 Jarren Duran BOS OF 151 $3
10 José Alvarado PHI RP 159 $9

How is the less proven Ced Mullins just a round cheaper? Jarren Duran is coming off a strong 120 wRC+ with 8 HR and 24 SB in 362 PA which clearly has many excited given his ADP, but I can’t do it. This is another one where I’m worried “The Extrapolators” are pushing the ADP up. I buy the speed, but I’m tepid on his pop and his poor plate skills put a heavy burden on his BABIP to drive the AVG (a .381 BABIP fueled the .295 AVG). Give me any of Chas McCormick, Riley Greene, Brandon Nimmo, James Outman, Lars Nootbaar, Daulton Varsho, Taylor Ward, and even Duran’s new teammate Tyler O’Neill over him at similar to cheaper price tags. They don’t all bring the speed he does, but it could be some pretty empty SBs if his BABIP isn’t strong.

This is admittedly less about being out on José Alvarado and more about loving Jeff Hoffman. The departure of Craig Kimbrel opens the door for more SVs, but Alvarado had just 10 last year and while he isn’t terribly expensive, he is going nearly 300 picks earlier than Hoffman. Hell, even Seranthony Domínguez could be in the mix for Philly SVs and he’s going nearly 500 picks after Alvarado! I don’t mind dipping into the Philly bullpen as they will likely spread their SVs out, I’m just not paying a Top 200 pick for any of their guys.


Full Rankings Without Tiers

No tiers. Just the rankings.
Full Rankings Without Tiers
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Elly De La Cruz CIN 3B/SS 26 $15
2 CJ Abrams WAS SS 39 $12
3 Tyler Glasnow LAD SP 41 $20
4 Nolan Jones COL OF 56 $16
5 Joe Ryan MIN SP 85 $15
6 Zack Gelof OAK 2B 133 $3
7 Esteury Ruiz OAK OF 127 $6
8 Cedric Mullins BAL OF 151 $9
9 Jarren Duran BOS OF 151 $3
10 José Alvarado PHI RP 159 $9

Mining the News (3/20/24)

American League

Angels

• The team is considering Andrew Wantz as part of their rotation.

“Those three lefties we have [Tyler Anderson, Reid Detmers and Patrick Sandoval], they have the ability to shut games down,” Washington said. “And you got [Griffin] Canning and [Chase] Silseth and [Andrew] Wantz, I mean we have guys who are able to shut offenses down. … If we can get ‘em out there keeping the opponent to two or three runs every night, we’re in good shape.”

In 117 IP over three seasons, Wantz has a 3.85 ERA, 9.5 K/9, and 1.15 WHIP. He features a 94-mph fastball and slider (14% SwStr%) while mainly throwing out of the bullpen.

José Soriano’s role is not yet set.

Right-handers Chase Silseth and José Soriano will both pitch in Minor League action on Thursday’s off-day. Silseth remains on track to be the club’s fifth starter, while the Angels still haven’t decided whether they’ll continue to keep Soriano stretched out or move him back to a relief role. If Soriano remains a starter, he’s expected to open the year in the Minors.

He’ll either start in the minor league rotation or as a long reliever in the majors.

Athletics

Tyler Soderstrom will start in the minors in order to play every day.

Coupled with the unlikelihood of regular playing time in the Majors due to the presence of Langeliers at catcher and Ryan Noda at first base, the A’s felt it would be best for Soderstrom to get regular at-bats in the Minors, where he holds an .857 OPS in three seasons.

“Defensively, the improvements he’s made over the last two years back there have made him into a No. 1-type catcher,” Kotsay said. “The offensive side, with the bat, controlling the strike zone is probably his biggest thing. When he swings at good pitches, he does damage. I think shrinking the zone for him is a big goal and something we’ll pay attention to when he’s in Vegas this year.”

Blue Jays

• If healthy, Bowden Francis will be in the major league rotation.

There’s no mystery to this solution. Bowden Francis gets to run with a big league rotation job, and if he pitches as well as many within the Blue Jays’ organization expect, he could keep it. If that script plays out, Manoah wouldn’t just need to get his body right, he’d need to do enough to win the job back. This is a massive opportunity for Francis.

Kevin Gausman might be skipped the first or second time through the rotation.

Let’s not even call this an “injury.” This was something minor that Gausman felt earlier in camp, but it derailed his schedule and he’s trying to catch up. Gausman threw 23 pitches in a live BP setting Friday in Dunedin and he will get into a game next, but the Blue Jays are in a race against the clock to get him ready in time.

“We’re waiting and seeing,” Schneider said. “We still have to build him up quite a bit, whether he lands at the end of camp at 60 pitches and then he can pitch without overworking and overtaxing our bullpen at the beginning of the year. If it’s at the end of the rotation, that’s probably the best-case scenario.”

Mariners

Dominic Canzone has a leg up on Luke Raley for the left-field job.

How Servais looks utilizes left field — with Canzone and Raley each being lefty hitters — will be worth following. Canzone has been among the best performers this spring, while Raley is still looking to find his footing, now 1-for-23 in Cactus play. The Rays almost exclusively sat Raley against lefties last season, with nearly 90% of his plate appearances coming against righties.

Rangers

Josh Jung should return to action ahead of Corey Seager.

The good news is that [Seager and Jung] can still be ready come Opening Day. Manager Bruce Bochy has said he’s “cautiously optimistic” that will be the case.

“I think Josh for certain, but I don’t want to jump ahead yet to Corey,” general manager Chris Young said, confirming Bochy’s thinking. “I think Josh for certain, I think he’s ahead of where Corey is right now. He’s been able to do more baseball activity, but still cautiously optimistic for Corey, too. If it’s not Opening Day, it’ll be shortly thereafter.”

Jung has been taking live batting practice for about a week now and DH’d in a Minor League game on the back fields in Surprise on Monday. He was the leadoff batter in every inning, and went 2-for-4 with two singles.

Rays

• Some made-up player named Jacob Waguespack is being considered for the rotation.

Waguespack is off to a good start. His fastball velocity has ticked up into the mid-90s, and the Rays believe his four-pitch mix gives him a chance to handle a starting/bulk-inning role, though he’s proven to be versatile enough for just about anything. Cash said he’s been most impressed by Waguespack’s velocity, extension (which makes it seem like the ball is getting to the plate even quicker) and ability to make adjustments with Snyder and Co.

“Easily one of the more improved guys,” Snyder said. “I think it illustrated what Spring Training can be for certain guys.”

Red Sox

Vaughn Grissom won’t return until mid to late April.

Connor Wong reworked his swing this offseason.

That said, Connor Wong’s red-hot spring, which continued in Monday afternoon’s 5-2 loss to the Twins with his second two-run homer in as many days, could be a sign that the offensive adjustments he made in the offseason will make him into a better all-around player.

“He’s made adjustments,” manager Alex Cora said. “It started towards the end of the [2023] season. And in the offseason, [hitting coach] Pete [Fatse] came down here to Fort Myers. They started cleaning up a few things with the leg kick and all that.

“I think he’s in a good spot. He’s hitting the ball hard. There’s more conviction behind the swing. If that happens, then we go from a decent offensive team to a really good one.”

• Again, Josh Winckowski will pitch out of the bullpen.

Prior to Sunday’s split-squad contest against the Yankees, manager Alex Cora announced that righty Josh Winckowski was taken out of the rotation competition and moved to the bullpen for a multi-inning role.

• The team is considering Cooper Criswell as a rotation option.

Instead of four pitchers vying for the fourth and fifth spots, the derby is down to three. Out of Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Cooper Criswell, only one will be left out of the rotation.

Twins

Carlos Santana is expected to play every game.

When facing right-handed pitchers, expect to see both Santana and Kirilloff in the lineup, typically with Santana at first base and Kirilloff at designated hitter. When facing left-handed pitchers, Kirilloff will likely often be on the bench in favor of a right-handed hitter, while Santana will remain in the lineup. In fact, based on spring usage, Santana may be the Twins’ leadoff man versus lefties.

Louie Varland is now in the MLB rotation.

DeSclafani’s status affects Louie Varland, who would likely be the pick to take his spot in the rotation if needed. It could also change the Twins’ plans for the last bullpen spot if they feel more multi-inning coverage is necessary. However, the early-season schedule could buy DeSclafani a bit more time to get healthy, potentially allowing the Twins to skip the No. 5 starter twice.

With scheduled off days following the Twins’ first, third and sixth games, they could easily avoid using a fifth starter until the 10th game, April 9 versus the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

• The team has stated they consider Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart as closing options with Jhoan Duran hurt.

But even with Duran and Thielbar sidelined, the Twins have a strong relief crop to work with, thanks to a number of offseason acquisitions, including Justin Topa (via trade) and Jay Jackson (free agency).

Falvey mentioned guys like Griffin Jax — who dominated in 2023 and spent the spring developing his secondary pitches, and Brock Stewart — who Falvey said, “has a chance to really pitch well towards the back end,” — as players who have stepped up this spring.

“There are a lot of guys in the mix right now,” Baldelli said. “The multi-inning component, it was important before and it’s still very important. We are going to need guys to go out there and throw two or three innings at a time in order for us to win and to stabilize our group over a stretch of games.

White Sox

Garrett Crochet will be the Opening Day starter.

White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet came into 2024 looking to move from the bullpen to the rotation. Not only will he break camp as a starter, but the Sox announced that Crochet will take the ball on Opening Day.

National League

Diamondbacks

Ryne Nelson, Tommy Henry, and Bryce Jarvis are being considered for the last rotation spot.

Henry started off the spring hot, but has not pitched as well in his last few outings while Nelson has shown some improvement with his slider, a pitch the D-backs wanted him to work on this offseason.

Jarvis’ numbers don’t jump out — 9.82 ERA in four games — but he looked nasty in his last spring outing.

D-backs manager Torey Lovullo has not said if one of the three pitchers who do not get the fifth spot would be used as a potential long man in the bullpen, but it’s a role that might suit Jarvis.

Dodgers

Kyle Hurt will start the season in the bullpen.

Giants

• Before the team signed Blake Snell, they considered Mason Black to be one of the top four rotation options.

Without locking in the order, Melvin on Sunday confirmed a rotation of Webb, lefty Kyle Harrison and righty Jordan Hicks, along with No. 8 prospect Mason Black, a righty who will pitch a Minor League game at Papago Park on Tuesday.

Alex Cobb plans to return around May 1st.

Righty Alex Cobb struck out five and allowed no hits or walks over two innings in his 27-pitch Minor League outing Saturday. But he continues to recover from offseason surgery on his left hip, and Melvin said on Sunday that he doesn’t expect Cobb to be ready for Opening Day. Look for Cobb’s return around May 1, at the earliest, though he should get into one more spring game in Arizona.

Marlins

• With all the injuries, the team is considering Bryan Hoeing as a rotation option.

In addition to Meyer, Chirinos, and Smeltzer, McPherson mentions Bryan Hoeing as another possibility for the Marlins rotation. Like Meyer, Hoeing is already on the 40-man roster; unlike Meyer, Hoeing is still in big league camp. Hoeing doesn’t have Meyer’s upside, and he profiles more as a long man out of the bullpen. Still, he’ll be capable of eating innings until Meyer is ready for a call-up or one of the injured arms is ready to return.

Phillies

Johan Rojas is struggling as he reworks his swing.

“Right now, I don’t care about the results,” Rojas said late last week. “Of course, if I had good results, it’s great. But right now, I’m focusing on the process of everything. I feel like I’m learning a lot of new stuff. I don’t feel like the player that I was last year. Once I feel it click — the new things that I’m getting used to — everything else is going to come with it. The best version of myself is going to follow.”

Rojas is trying to be the Phillies’ everyday center fielder. It is a job they said he must earn, but it is one they want him to win. But Rojas is batting only .171 (7-for-41) with one double, two triples, four RBIs and a .483 OPS in 42 Grapefruit League plate appearances. He went 0-for-3 with a strikeout in Monday’s 4-3 split-squad loss to the Yankees in Tampa.

“We haven’t made any decisions, but he is improving,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Monday. “We’re going to talk here in the next couple days as a group and try to figure out what’s best for him, and then we’ll go from there.”

Pirates

Domingo Germán is not yet at 100%.

The Pirates have some question marks at the back end of their rotation, and while Germán feels he is at about “80 percent” right now, he will not be ready to join the team in Miami for Opening Day on March 28.

The plan is for Germán to spend two or three weeks in camp so the team can better understand what resources they feel he needs for his recovery.

Reds

Nick Martinez is in the rotation.

 


Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 20th, 2024

We went 2.5 hrs today!!

1:03

Paul Sporer: Welcome, thanks for coming out!!

1:03

Kyle: Looks like Justin’s Elly-to-AAA call is looking pretty rough so far after all of these injuries skull

1:04

Paul Sporer: He never said he was definitely going to Triple-A.. suggested that if he played poorly enough (like his 2H last yr), then he could get sent back down

1:04

Paul Sporer: Sucks about Matt McLain getting cry

1:04

Guest: Hi Paul.  Over under 130 games for Royce?

1:05

Paul Sporer: The safe bet is under, but I’m willing to take the shot on his skills because the upside is rich

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Top-200 Hitters 2024 Fantasy Rankings

Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Several projections became publicly available this week (THE BAT X and ZiPS) so my overall valuations changed. I only noted the early players who have moved by 10 or more spots and 20 spots for the tiered or worse hitters.


Changelog

  • 3/20/2024 – Possibly my last update.
  • 3/11/2024 – Again, just trying to focus on playing time.
  • 2/23/2024 – Moved some guys based on playing time.
  • 2/9/2024 – Just reranked a few players
  • 1/30/2024 – Incorporated some more projections into my base rankings.
  • 1/19/2024 – Tiered the next 50 hitters (250 total) and messed a bit on the catcher value in the overall ranks.
  • 1/12/2024 – First release.

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

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