Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 20th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Welcome, thanks for coming out!!

Kyle: Looks like Justin’s Elly-to-AAA call is looking pretty rough so far after all of these injuries

Paul Sporer: He never said he was definitely going to Triple-A.. suggested that if he played poorly enough (like his 2H last yr), then he could get sent back down

Paul Sporer: Sucks about Matt McLain getting

Guest: Hi Paul.  Over under 130 games for Royce?

Paul Sporer: The safe bet is under, but I’m willing to take the shot on his skills because the upside is rich

The Doctor is In: Rough estimate but, with the McLain news, 17 of top 100 by ADP have been injured so far during draft season. Happen every year and we forget or legitimately something going on?

Paul Sporer: The former much more likely

Joe: Thoughts on Trevor Story this year? Obv a health risk, but a potential 20/20 guy hitting in the heart of a decent lineup seems like great value at SS #18?

Paul Sporer: He’s definitely priced to buy so if you still believe in him, I have no issue investing. I have him in 1 lg so far

Insert Witty Name Here: Marathon chat!!! Is this the year to fade J-Ram? His ISO has been dropping the last three years but the projections have him back over .200 and I’m not buying it as a first rounder. Agree or no?

Paul Sporer: Great plate skills, 20/25 seems safe, and 3 straight 150+ gm seasons keeps me invested in him. I’m still open to taking him

Günter: What is the current pod cast schedule? Sunday is the only one I can usually remember.

Paul Sporer: A little disjointed in late-March w/draft season as one or both of us are usually travelling. Justin was out last week. But it’s usually Monday, Thursday, Friday and then Justin & Jason on Sundays.

Insert Witty Name Here: How much helium is Oneil Cruz worth right now in a standard 12 team?

Paul Sporer: He’s now inside the Top 60 in the early Main Events. I loved him in that 80-90 range where he spent most of the winter. I’m not out at the surge, but not as aggressively seeking. Although I will say McLain was usually my pivot off Cruz’s new price and now McLain is hurt

Orioles sale: This needs to be finalized today so the Orioles can still get Montgomery lol. Makes too much sense for him to go there, 2 yr 50 million with opt out with their clear

Paul Sporer: He’s an excellent fit in a handful of spots, including Baltimore. I really hope he lands soon. Stinks that he’s still unsigned at this point

Sabey Sabes: What’s too high (price or pick) on Yamamoto? I’m not concerned about him in the season-long context. Thinking worst-case might be the Senga success arc of last year, only better, naturally

Paul Sporer: Feels like you have to be comfortable with Top 50 if you want him (Top 30ish in Main Events and I’d imagine at least within 20 picks of that in standard lgs at ESPN/Y!/etc…) which is a little spicy, but I’m not against going out and getting my guys especially when it comes to pitchers. Valuing them has so much more variance than hitters and if you think he’s that dude, pony up the price.

Paul Sporer: Like Glasnow has a career high of 120 IP, but he’s SO good on a per inning basis and if you’re comfortable betting on him setting a new high this year, then his Top 25-30 ADP is possible. That said, you’ll never really go broke by fading these pop-up guys and playing it a bit safer. So I’m fence-sitting a bit, but I totally see both sides of it, particularly on the pitching side

Kate: Best guess at who’s getting saves in the White Sox pen to start the year?

Paul Sporer: Bobby Thigpen

Paul Sporer: (Jokes aside, I’d probably take a flier on Kopech if I dare to get into that pen)

Guest: I know spring stats should be taken with a grain of salt.  With that said, has the performance of any young players this spring changed your valuation of them.  Big so, who?   Specifically position players.  Thanks

Kate: How much are you buying into a possible Ryan Weather breakout after such a dope spring training?  Has Miami tweaked something there?

Paul Sporer: Paired these together because Weathers is definitely one of the guys who stood out in Spring. Along w/teammate AJ Puk, who my friend Nick Pollack sold me on a bit yesterday in a discussion we had. I generally look at Ks and BBs — very basic — but a guy is doing much better than his normal levels in those categories, it stands out to me. For hitters, Ks and BBs also matter as well as power output and their SB attempts. Even if they aren’t always successful, just seeing more volume of attempts can be an indicator they will run more in the coming season

Yuni B: Over/under 14.5 saves for the Phillies saves leader this year?

Paul Sporer: Over for my boy Jeff Hoffman!!! That’s at least partially wishcasting as I’m a big fan. I’m not anti-Alvarado, either, just kinda hoping the Phillies play into the lefty bias a lot of teams do w/their closer and let him handle the big lefty(or lefties) in the lineup before the 9th. Now they do have Soto to help w/that so Alvarado will certainly get saves, but I like speculating on some of their other studs, Hoffman chief among them

Guest: Why aren’t you on twitter much anymore?

Paul Sporer: Mostly time, but been popping up more w/the season coming up

B’ryce Hammer Destroyer of Baseballs: … Will hit __ bombs to pace the Phillies and lead them to (checks notes) second in the NL east…

Paul Sporer: 38, big jump up this year w/some health leading him to 140+ gms!

Peter: As a fellow tigers fan, how excited should I be about this team and specifically rotation?? Haven’t been this invested since the JV/Price/Scherzer era

Paul Sporer: Was just saying the exact same thing on some pod appearances yesterday. Feels great to have some legit pitching depth and a potential frontline ace in Skubal!!

Kate: Are the Brewers really going to run Frelick out there at third most days?

Paul Sporer: I think so! Defense might not be better than Monasterio’s, but bat potential is certainly much higher

The Kid: Seems like the Jackson trifecta are all going to make their respective teams. What’s your outlook on them this year? I managed to get all 3 in a 12T points league draft a few days ago

Paul Sporer: Chourio, Holliday, and who?

Paul Sporer: Oh Merrill!!

Paul Sporer: How’d I forget my favorite of the three?! Not bc he’s the best, but because Merrill is the cheapest by nearly 100 picks from Holliday. All 3 are super interesting. I think they’re going in the right order – Chourio, Holliday, Merrill – and really think they can be impact players for 12s and 15s. Merrill might be a bit fringier for 10s, but I don’t hate a spec on him just in case he pops

PlayBall: Matt Manning has looked good . Worth a add now in a deep mixed roto ?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think so! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2024-fantasy-pitcher-breakouts-sporers-p…

seddrah: Volpe or Trevor Story?

Paul Sporer: Volpe for me. Really big on him for year 2

Musgrove: Just given the weirdness of the calendar, travel, and opponent, would you start Musgrove tomorrow in a h2h league?

Paul Sporer: I would, yes. I know it’s the Dodgers, but I tend to start my aces (or #2s as he could definitely be) against everyone

Kate: Who do you think closes in Minnesota until Duran gets back?  Seems like a lot are assuming it’s Jax, but Brock Stewart was otherworldly last year.

Paul Sporer: Stew was great, but so was Jax and for nearly 2.5x the IP. Jax is my lean, but I still remember Eno giving love to Stewart’s arsenal ages ago as a Dodgers prospect so he’s not a bad $1 spec if you’re not sold on it being Jax

The King: Do I need to curb my Michael King enthusiasm? I think there’s a path to him being the best pitcher on the Padres this year, even post-Cease acquisition

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so, I’m a big fan and I see no reason for his IP to be heavily managed so I think we could get 150+ IP of strong work

B’ryce Hammer Destroyer of Baseballs: ONeil Cruz vs Elly D. in a shallow points league is all about upside, right?

Paul Sporer: Yes it is all about upside, but I’m not sure their ceilings are all that far apart so I’ll just take the cheaper guy

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: So was I crazy using a round 25 pick last night on JD Martinez? He’s going to play *somewhere*, right?

Paul Sporer: Not crazy, no. I agree he should sign somewhere, especially as injuries pile up across the league

Jason: Do you like any of the Cardinals pitching prospects to make an impact this season? Looks like they might need a few of them.

Paul Sporer: I’ll be keepin tabs on Tekoah Roby. Tink Hence is electric, too, but I wonder if he might get a bullpen look this year (still SP long-term, but just for this summer maybe help their pen)

E: Thoughts on Crochet and Stone in their respective rotations? It sounds like both made mechanical changes and pitch mix alterations. I waivered both right out of our draft before the “making their rotations news came out” and am hoping I grabbed some undervalued studs.

Paul Sporer: Big fan of both!! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2024-fantasy-pitcher-breakouts-sporers-p…

benny rod: Who are the “boring veterans” you like this year?

Paul Sporer: Sean Murphy, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Drury, Xander Bogaerts, Alex Bregman, Mike Trout, Yu Darvish, and Eduardo Rodriguez

Paul Sporer: 1 per position & 2 SPs

Dave: Spring is spring is spring… but, Christopher Sanchez had some helium coming into the spring— any concerns about the way he’s performed?

Paul Sporer: Nah, only 4 IP which is tiny even by ST standards

Dave: Late round flier on an OF with a little pop and a little speed— Parker Meadows or Jose Siri?

Paul Sporer: Siri is more pop than speed and I think Meadows will be the reverse so I’d probably let my team needs drive my decision there

RAH: Do you think Kutter Crawford makes it to 160 IP this year?

Paul Sporer: I do, yes, and I’m a huge fan

Bob: Off the top of your head, what is the worst contract you have given out in OOTP?

Paul Sporer: LOL I know exactly what it is — a 3 yr/$55ish mil deal (frontloaded w/$20-something the first yr) to Tyler Glasnow when he was age-32 and dude EVAPORATED in front of our eyes (it was on stream). He got back-to-back-to-back negative scouting reports (you get a report each month for those unaware) w/MAJOR drop offs on all 3 and I ended up cutting him and eating the money by June of Year 1. Obviously he came w/his IRL baggage of injuries so I knew the risk I was taking, but my goodness I didn’t exactly THAT kind of immediate fall off

TD: In dire straights with the McLain news. Any bargain bin 2B guys you like? 12T obp league. Polanco? B Lowe McMahon?

Paul Sporer: I’d go for McMahon

What the Eff Pauly Walnuts: What the heck! Ohtani is just a singles merchant now? (Just goofin’, happy baseball season, always enjoy your insights!)

Paul Sporer: lolol yep, 1B and SB only now

Paul Sporer: btw, when did “merchant” become the new big buzzword? I’ve been hearing it a ton this winter/spring in different baseball contexts

Gavin Stone: Do you see him staying in the rotation all year?

Paul Sporer: Nooooooot necessarily. With a pick that late, I’m only concerned w/the immediate 4-6 wk window and I’ll adjust as we move forward

Phil: Thoughts on DL Hall? I was thinking about dropping for Weathers.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m good w/that move

Nats Fan: Any hope for James Wood making the team? Keeping fingers crossed as I decide my keepers by Monday.

Paul Sporer: I’d be REALLYYY surprised

RAH: 140+ games for Harper? I guess the back stuff this spring doesn’t have you too worried? The guys is tough, so I guess I expect him to play through this when the games countzm, but should playing less than 100% lower the HR expectations?

Paul Sporer: It’s far from a guarantee and I could see some load management stuff as they have designs on October, but he’s a gamer and I wouldn’t be surprised if he surged back up

phil: trade Oneil Cruz for Michael Harris? Both are $10 keepers in a 12 team OBP league

Paul Sporer: I lean Cruz, tbh

Stankenstein: Dodgers and Orioles should come up with a trade. Like a Sheehan for Mayo or Ryan for Wesburg

Paul Sporer: Pitching for middle infield would be pretty interesting, buuuuttt LA might need all that surplus pitching to get through the year until they shave the rotation down for October

Günter: I finished all my drafts and didn’t go chasing the next big thing rookies. Felt so great at the time and since.

Paul Sporer: Like I was saying early, you won’t go broke w/this method. Even if they hit, they miss enough that it’s a sound foundational principle

Norbert in Mississauga: Paul, you’re the man! Love your chats and keep up the great work!

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much!!

Stankenstein: How about the most important Jackson? Over 60 MLB innings for the Tigers?

Paul Sporer: That’s who I thought they meant initially and I was like no way Jobe is breaking camp. I think somewhere in the 40-60 IP ranges makes the most sense so I’ll say under. No need to rush him, but I am SOOO excited for him. We’ve seen prospects breaking timelines like crazy lately so be ready to pounce in FAAB once he’s up!

Ken: Kind of a philosophical question, but when you work through auction keeper decisions, do you care more about a player’s value vs salary, or his keeper price vs what he’d likely go for at auction?

Paul Sporer: Generally his value bc his potential auction price can be SOOOO volatile depending on when they come out and how the dynamics work so it seems too hard to really pin that down

Tim: Where you land on JoRam vs Devers for this year?

Paul Sporer: JoRam slightly ahead

Al: Is Henry Davis being slept on? Has the prospect pedigree, seems like he’s going to get catcher eligibility pretty quickly, he’s having a nice spring, and this Pirates lineup looks like it could be sneaky good to help his counting stats.

Paul Sporer: He is indeed, IMO! Took a big jump in my C rankings just this wk — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/catcher-2024-fantasy-rankings/

Paul Sporer: And Davis barely missed my Breakouts list. I went Suwinski over him. Not that I had a rule of only 1 Pirate, but I just decided to do the 1 and then hype Davis in my C ranks

Question 2: Preferred spring training helium pick… flaherty or stone? Both 13 team streamers?

Paul Sporer: Stone for me but I’m a long time Flaherty fan and now he’s on my favorite team so the truthful answer is I really like both. The tiebreaker is team context which no doubt favors Stoney

SP: Who do you prefer: Braxton Garrett or Cristopher Sanchez?

Paul Sporer: Sanchez is my dude!

Victor Scott: Do you think I get the job?

Paul Sporer: Mans is fighting for his life out there!!! He’s a fun last pick bc you’ll know instantly what to do. If he makes the team, great, potential SB stud. If not, easy cut in all formats. Downside is he’s not on the 40 and theirs is full, but that isn’t AUTOMATICALLY disqualifying especially w/Luken Baker–Jared Young-Alfredo Rivas all being on it. They don’t really need all 3 of them on the 40 if they deem Scott ready. Worthy lottery ticket in all formats where SBs are important

Popeye: any thoughts on Brenton Doyle?  Col hitter with power and speed is always interesting but too many K’s

Paul Sporer: Made my sleeper picks on a recent pod episode for the reasons you mention. The Ks are rough, but Coors can hide some of his flaws and if he can improve a liiiiittle bit, he could be really nice! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1271-sl…

Peter: Hi Paul, any shot that either Jordan Leasure becomes the Sox closer or Jeff Hoffman for Philly? I’m very high on these two as spec relievers. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Yes anyway with a pulse can get the White Sox job and Hoffman is my favorite SVs spec this year!

Mark: Eduardo has new lat injury…concerned?

Paul Sporer: Son of a! I missed that re: Eduardo Rodriguez. Does give me some pause. Would need IL spots to take him now.

1b bros: Is Josh Naylor a dude?

Paul Sporer: I think so, but health has eluded him. If he can finally eclipse 500+ PA, there’s 25/12/.280 potential w/strong R/RBI totals.

Paul Sporer: *Small break to let the pups out*

RBI: Rizzo the best 200+ adp bet to lead the league in RBI?

Paul Sporer: Without looking at everyone past 200, I love that bet. He was on fire prior to the head injury and as long as there is no residual issue from that, I love buying back on him. And NOOO it’s not just bc he has a wiener dog named Kevin!!

Paul Sporer: (but that certainly helps)

Dave: Current rotation is Kirby, Skubal, Ragans, Ober, Puk.  Have I been Pollack-pilled?

Paul Sporer: Heavily, but NOTHING wrong w/that!!

AJ Puk: Why does no one on Fangraphs believe I can transition to a starter? Is is my injury history?

Paul Sporer: I’m a recent convert!! The aforementioned Nick Pollack got me on board. I looooved Puke throughout his career and I was just going to pass bc I’ve been burned in the past, but that’s inconsistent w/how I generally operate and Nick exposed that to me which brought me back on board. Like if I’m gonna keep driving the Reynaldo Lopez train, why would I quit Puk when he’s actually showing signs of being the guy I loved when he was an Oakland prospect?!

Chooka: Jackson Holliday for Jarren Duran – straight up

Chooka: Sorry meant to add – AL only, traditional 5 x 5 – who would you want ?

Chooka: That deal is only for 2024 – thanks

Paul Sporer: Being only 2024 makes it MUUUUUCH closer and I think I’m gonna go Duran w/his SB impact

Louis V: I know he was facing a killer lineup, but I just saw Varland’s line from today’s start. Did you see any of this? Should I be scared?

Paul Sporer: Juuuuust started it on replay, but hey, that’s what happens when you face the badass Tigers!!! I doubt I’m going to see anything that’s going to take me off him completely. I’ll likely look to buy the dip unless we get some news that he was hurt and that’s why he stunk up the joint

Jtl: Why do teams take so long to put guys on the IL?? I don’t think I’ve ever gotten a clear answer to that.

Paul Sporer: I think it might just be that they don’t really have to… and unfortunately, they’re unconcerned w/our fantasy teams which is just rude!

Mike: Does Noelvi Marte’s suspension change the long term outlook for him in your opinion?

Paul Sporer: Nah, not really. I can’t recall too many PED suspensions that really derailed a guy’s career and I don’t think his prospect status was just because he took PEDs or anything, ya know?

Dk: You ready to get back on the Tylor Megill roller coaster? He added a cutter and splitter and has a strong k-bb ratio this spring

Paul Sporer: LOL, yes. I can’t quit that son of a gun!

Guest: Who do you figure gets the MIL saves, and do you think D Williams returns this year?

Paul Sporer: I’ve been on the Abner Uribe spec train, but Megill and Payamps are worthy specs, too. It feels kinda wide open right now

Salty: Bold Prediction – Alex Lange 40+ saves!  Think he’ll get there unless he walks the park again…

Paul Sporer: I looove where your head’s at and desperately hope you’re right bc that will mean good things for my Tiges!

Cubs pen: How do you see ChC saves getting split?  Is Alzolay 22, Neris 8, Meryweather 5, others less than 5 reasonable?

Paul Sporer: Yeah that makes some sense. Their lack of commitment to Alzo might split it a little more w/a few extra to Neris, but Alzo is still the guy I’m drafting

Fantasy: Chase Silseth or Martin Perez?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Silseth guy!

Sabey Sabes: Saw Ohtani is throwing and might his the field later this year. Where do you think he ends up: OF, 1B, blowing us all away by pulling a Mookie and just filling a hole?

Paul Sporer: Prob just occasional outings in OF if at all

Paul Sporer: They won’t risk it if he’s not 100% good to go. That said, I have zero doubts he can be an elite OFer

Matt: How do you handle questions of “I know I shouldn’t overreact to spring training but I’m thinking about overreacting to spring training?”

Do we, as fans/fantasy players, just need to settle down and relax about ST? What SHOULD we be paying attention to?

Paul Sporer: Gonna repeat this from earlier in terms of what I generally pay attention to in Spring, especially on a day like today when we’re going over an hour and I know not everyone is here the whole time: I generally look at Ks and BBs — very basic — but if a guy is doing much better (or worse on the other end, of course) than his normal levels in those categories, it stands out to me. For hitters, Ks and BBs also matter as well as power output and their SB attempts. Even if they aren’t always successful, just seeing more volume of attempts can be an indicator they will run more in the coming season. I don’t overreact to any of it, though, even when they are performing very well, it’s just seasoning on my outlook. I don’t move a guy 100 spots or anything. The only thing that facilitates a HUUUGE move is playing time changes

Penguin Power: cedanne rafaela…fantasy superstar in the making?

Paul Sporer: Very interesting talent, but not sure he has the skills for fantasy superstardom just yet. I’m intrigued and the PT should be there thanks to glove so I like speculating on him, but unsure if the bat is ready for primetime. Very draftable, though

bostonbosox45: Am I crazy for liking the Pirates lineup this year and seeing sneaky good potential there? Also, am I crazy for LOVING Suwinski? Only 25 coming off 19 and 26 homer seasons, and hitting at the top of that lineup. If he plays 150 games, Is 35 homers and 20 bags too much to ask?!?!

Paul Sporer: Not crazy for any of that. I share your interest in the lineup and Suwinski specifically! He was part of my breakout article — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2024-fantasy-hitter-breakouts-sporers-pi… — I’d like to see him be a bit more aggressive and attack hittable pitches!

Dave: Ryan Mountcastle just kept falling and falling in a 14 team league I’m in to where I finally drafted him in round 14. The Bat X has him higher than guys like Rizzo and Jose Abreu, but the concern is playing time and health. How do you feel about him this year?

Paul Sporer: He’s a forgotten piece of an excellent lineup and I don’t think they’re just going to discard him for the next hot prospect. If he’s healthy, he’s playing. I do worry a bit about the HR output bc of Walltimore, but at his price, he’s worth the shot

duran duran: What’s your take on the injury to Jhoan Duran? Still worth a fantasy draft?

Paul Sporer: Not unless I have like 5+ IL slots. I’m nervous about a moderate oblique. Those bitches linger.

Norbert in Mississauga: Who is the Tigers 6th SP? Mize or Olson. Mize starting in the minors, to have a regular workload and build up innings, makes the most sense to me. But it is the Tigers.

Paul Sporer: I see it similarly w/Mize being slowrolled a bit given the team’s depth and Mize returning from injury. We shall see. Mize had another strong outing today so just keep tabs and see where they go.

Better Call Paul: Any hope for Eloy and/or Buxton this year? Both only DH right now, expecting Buxton to quickly become OF eligible and maybe the bat comes back once he’s playing the field? Obviously acquisition cost very low for both, that’s the main reason I’m intrigued

Paul Sporer: Two guys I’ve loved in the past both on the outs among the fantasy community which creates an interesting buying opportunity. The UT-only part doesn’t deter me too much, unless I have Shohei of course. I’m down to take the discounted shot on either of ’em

Paul Sporer: Varland updated: getting nickel & dimed here early on. I know a HR is coming eventually bc I saw it on Twitter, but 3 R and 5 H into this, I’m not really seeing reason for major concern

Colton: Payamps or Uribe for Brewers closer spec until Williams comes back?

Andy: You think Uribe will handle saves for Brewers while Williams is out?

Paul Sporer: Mentioned earlier that Uribe is my dude, but I totally understand Payamps and Megill specs

JV: Ke’Breakout?

Paul Sporer: Feel like we saw the makings of one last yr w/2x the HR count and still believe there’s more, ideally in the AVG. I think he can do something like .285/18/18 w/decent R/RBI totals if that Pittsburgh lineup is as spry as a few us believe it can be

Guest: Sandoval opening day? What gives?

Paul Sporer: Patrick? I mean who deserved it more? He’s not a bad pitcher. I’m a long-time fan and remain so this year w/the price totally bottomed out. I understand the flaws, but they’re all covered in his price. In fairness, I like way too many Angels SPs, lol, but I don’t think it’s egregious to give Sandy the OD nod

Jesse: Davis Schneider whiffed on 53.4% of the 4 seasm fastballs he swung at last year. He also slugged .742 on the 4 seamers he made contact with. What do i do with this information?

Paul Sporer: I mean yeah there’s a reason he’s post-400 ADP… no one is really buying so if you do like him at all, at least it’s super cheap to take shot… but yeah I’m not really into him

daro: rafaela looks like a righty JBJ with more steals

Paul Sporer: That’s well said. And in fairness, I loved JBJ but that was more of a real baseball thing bc of his elite defense than fantasy

Insert Witty Name Here: What’s your cleverest team name you’ve ever had?

Paul Sporer: That’s never been a major strong suit for me. For Richer or Sporer was my team name for a long time. And then my favorite spoonerism w/a painfully bad photoshop was another team name I used for quite some time – Hole Camels

Help!: I missed Victor Scott off waivers.  Who else can I grab for speculating on SVs

Paul Sporer: Wait what? Victor Scott is a hitter who could be a speed merchant… are these 2 separate thoughts?

Mead Me: Is Richie Palacios being slept on the hardest of ANY player?

Paul Sporer: The hardest of ANY player??? Probably not, but I totally understand being interested in someone the Rays pluck from relative obscurity who now has a shot at some real PT. I think he’s a viable gamble in 12s and 15s for sure. Maybe more of a watchlist in 10s.

E: I’m using they meant SBs and not SVs. Only one key off…

HELP!: Sorry I meant “who else can I grab for speculating on SBs” .not SVs …. stupid QWERTY keyboard!

Paul Sporer: OK, I figured, but I just wanted to make sure it wasn’t like “Oh I missed Scott, so instead of SBs, I’d rather go for SVs in that slot now” so that’s why I checked. Other specs: the aforementioned Ceddanne Rafaela, Jose Caballero, maybe get back on the Jon Berti train, Wilyer Abreu, Nick Gordon, Geraldo Perdomo

Paul Sporer: There we go, that’s in the right order now

Seoul Train: Who is have the biggest positive fantasy this season: Puk, Trevor Rogers, or Mize?

Paul Sporer: Ooooh that’s a good trio. I think Puk actually has the best chance to have no reins on him given his age so I think his volume could give him the edge over those 2

Jack: Need the roster spot so is waiting on the Eury Perez medical results still a must?  Based on what I’m reading it doesn’t look good.

Paul Sporer: I share your nerves, but I’d wait it out as long as I can. You probably have someone else you can cut first if you need an immediate spot while waiting for confirmation on Eury

Humerto Cota: Somehow found myself with Devers and Royce Lewis and shallow at SS. Another team has Seager and Bichette, so I thought a trade might make sense. Any thoughts on a good potential trade? Or just hold both 3B and hope Neto is a stud?

Paul Sporer: I’d be happy to do Devers for Seager if your leaguemate would do that. My ideal combo is Seager/Lewis as those are 2 of my favorite non-Tigers players

Mike: Is Jared Jones in the Pirates rotation to start the year? Does he have top 60 upside if so?

Paul Sporer: It’s looking good, but not yet confirmed. I do think he has Top 60 upside, yes.

Insert Witty Name Here: Did you wake up early to watch the game today?

Paul Sporer: I sure did! And I’ll be up streaming tomorrow morning while watching the game again. I can’t show the game obviously, but if you wanna come hang while watching and talk baseball, come through: https://twitch.tv/sporer

Guest: What you think of david fry? Plays all over, decent hitter and can catch

Paul Sporer: Is he making the club? Intriguing AL-only kinda guy if and when he’s on the roster

Tony The Tiger: Mize or Manning for 5th spot?

Paul Sporer: Oh I think it’s Mize v. Olson. Manning is locked IMO

JJ: TELL ME HOW GREAT JACKSON JOBE IS.

Paul Sporer: SOOOO great!! I promise I’m not just picking all the Tigers Qs, there are many more I haven’t gotten to… we just have some real juice this year and it’s so fun!!!

Chickie: I know it’s only spring but…..ELDC hasn’t gotten a hit since Hector was a pup and lots of K’s. I know the injuries pretty much guarantee him p/t but if the slide continues, good chance we see him hitting out of the 8 or 9 slot vs AAA?

Paul Sporer: This is a fitting bookend because we opened the chat with someone referencing Justin saying that if EDLC really flops, he could be sent back down. And while I think it’d take until June/July for that to happen, his extreme volatility is why I have ZERO interest in his Top 25 ADP. I understand the premium upside, but at that price point, he HAS to deliver at that level to be worth it and he’s just not that sturdy an investment just yet. I’d rather wait 30 picks for Oneil Cruz (who has risen substantially, but still comes much cheaper w/virtually the same upside).

Tony The Tiger: Ive seen some projections showing Frelick stealing 26 – 30 bases?  Is that even in the realm of possibility?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. The only reason I didn’t put him on that SB spec list from the Victor Scott question is because he’s inside the Top 300 ADP and I was trying to go for post-300.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, 2.5 hours! I have a pod appearance with Patrick Davitt from BaseballHQ so we’re capping it there, but we did our marathon chat and I really appreciate everyone coming out. If you still have questions, you can post em in the comments of this post, hit me on Twitter at Sporer, and or come to my Twitch stream (twitch.tv/sporer) during the LA/SD game tomorrow morning and post in that chat!! Take care, y’all, and good luck this weekend in your drafts!