Every season a few hitters come out of nowhere to become major fantasy contributors. And by nowhere, I mean no one targeted them at all during draft season, even in 50-man roster draft-and-holds. This past season, Max Muncy, Joey Wendle, and Luke Voit provided fantasy production for nothing. An interesting trait for each of these hitters is that savvy teams targeted them in trades before the breakout. In recent seasons, these breakouts include Chris Taylor. Jose Martinez. and Jesus Aguilar. While the general public doesn’t have the same resources, scouts, and data as major league teams, I found the general traits some teams are looking to acquire.

I asked for help in creating the list. I end up with many responses but I wanted productive hitters on no one’s radar. I removed a suggestion if the hitter was on any top-100 list (e.g. John Hicks) or if they were ever an MLB regular (e.g. Scooter Gennett). In the end, 12 hitters made the cut: Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Luke Voit, Joey Wendle, Jose Martinez, Jesus Aguilar, Teoscar Hernandez, Adam Duvall, Daniel Palka, Eugenio Suarez, Mitch Haniger, and Justin Turner.

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10/10/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• Playoff talk (2:00)

Notable Picks Outside the Top 100

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In the #2earlymock drafts run by our own Justin Mason, Javier Baez is going 17th and Trevor Story is going 20th among all hitters. The picks are quite high considering Baez was the 58th hitter taken, and Story was 65th in NFBC drafts last year. The pair didn’t have must-draft preseason hype and their suspect plate discipline limited their perceived value. Both exceeded all expectations as they came in at 6th and 7th overall this year. This was a huge miss by the industry and I’m going to see if some traits point to why some low plate discipline players break out and others don’t.

For every Baez and Story, other bad plate discipline hitters failed like Byron Buxton (.383 OPS), Chris Davis (.539 OPS), Miguel Sano (.679 OPS) and Jonathan Schoop (.682 OPS). No obvious difference stood out. While Chris Davis is old, Buxton, Sano, and Schoop should be in their primes. To find out who may break out, I decided to start with the 2018 Bad Plate Discipline Class.

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10/8/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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CALL YOUR SHOT: Playoff Edition!!

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(yes, this is a straight copy of “Let’s Argue” by Anthony Fantano, but I told him about it)

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The Phillies have a pitching-heavy Top 10 list but there are some intriguing bats sprinkled in — including Alex Bohm, who could develop into a middle-of-the-order power threat.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Sixto Sanchez | RHP | A+ —> Sanchez’s pitch-ability belies his age. The 20-year-old takes advantage of above-average athleticism which helps him throw a solid number of strikes and also do a good of commanding his three-pitch mix (including a mid-to-high-90s fastball). His change-up and curve give him two other weapons that should be better than average. Standing just 6-feet, durability is a concern and he missed a good chunk of 2018 with elbow issues.

2. Alec Bohm | 3B | SS —> A monster at the plate at 6-5, 225 pounds, Bohn went third overall in the 2018 draft due to his intriguing mix of hitting ability and power. He has a chance to hit for a solid average while also taking a healthy number of walks. Bohm, 22, will have increased value if he can stick at third base but he’s not known as a strong defender and may have to shift to first base. Either way, his offensive abilities should allow him to move quickly and he could open 2019 in high-A ball.

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Today, I start the process examining who the industry, owners, and myself missed on with their preseason evaluations. Did a smoking gun exist and everyone missed it or was there no way to guess the outcome?  I’m going to start with two pitchers who had smoking guns, I wrote about the smoking guns, and then I totally ignored them.

The two starters are Gerrit Cole and Anibal Sanchez. Back in February, I highlighted both in a pitch mix change article. Looking back, I made a convincing case for taking a chance on either one. I spent a few hours doing the research and when it came to draft day, I never picked up a share. I failed as both overperformed.

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10/4/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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 Playoff Pitching X-Factors

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After crushing my BOLD Predictions last season, I was in for regression and it came hard. For my rankings, I’ll use Razzball’s combined rankings.

#1 Dinelson Lamet will end the season as a top-30 pitcher.

A horrible start by jinxing a guy into Tommy John surgery.

0 for 1

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It’s that time of year! We’re reviewing our Bold Predictions as a staff to see just how comically wrong we were… er, I mean how well we did! Look, I always want to get as many of these right as possible, but there’s also a part of it where I’m just trying to put a guy on everyone’s radar (or take them off if it’s negative one) and so hitting the exact numbers isn’t always the biggest deal for me. I’ll grade mine under that notion, but if you think I’m being too lenient you can definitely let me know in the comments.

Ozzie Albies has a 15 HR/40 SB season

OK, this one is tough. I feel fully justified in my excitement over Albies this year. I was taking him in the top 100 without incident and he finished around the top 75 buuuut he was nowhere near the 40 SB and I definitely expected that to be a big part of his performance. I had him for 55 HR+SB and he landed at 38, powered by his 24 HR. He also didn’t top .800 OPS in any month after his .988 in April. I’ll take half point here.

0.5

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Many September performances can be glossed over because of how many people are checked out on baseball or zeroed in on just their players as they chase down a title. Some just dismiss the month entirely because of the expanded rosters, though I find that quite ridiculous as plenty of players put up their numbers against quality arms in the midst of pennant chases. Here is a standout September from each AL team from a player who could be worth paying attention to in 2019 as well.

AL EAST

Renato Nunez, BAL | 5 HR, .313 AVG in 85 PA

Nunez was a noteworthy prospect in Oakland, but never really clicked and wound up getting waived. After a quick stint in Texas, he ended up in Baltimore where he put some things together in a 60-game run. He closed with a big September and now enters his age-25 season with a chance at a full time role.

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