10/19/18

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The Orioles rebuild has begun but, so far, the prospect returns have been fairly underwhelming. The system still needs a lot of work but there are at least a few interesting prospects.

1. Grayson Rodriguez | RHP | R —> Rodriguez was a huge pop-up guy in the 2018 draft and ended up being selected 11th overall. He’s a monster on the mound with the ability to hit the upper 90s but he should eventually grow into more consistent upper 90s. His slider also has the makings of a plus offering and he should be average ratings out of his curve and/or changeup. Rodriguez, 18, has the body to be an innings-eater and the stuff to be a front-line guy. On the downside, he doesn’t have the most athletic delivery and I don’t love the arm action, which could limit his overall command.

2. Ryan Mountcastle | 3B | AA —> It’s been a slow climb for Mountcastle, as a former prep pick, but showed well in double-A in 2018 and could be ready for the Majors at some point in 2019. He’s shown the ability to hit for average and has 15-20 homer potential (more if he added additional muscle to his frame) but he needs to be less aggressive at the plate. He walked just 26 times in 102 games and waiting for better pitches to hit could really help him continue to improve and let him tap into his raw power. He also struggles against the bender.

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Mitch Haniger surprised about everyone this season with top-25 production when his average draft position was over 200 in NFBC leagues. In all fairness, he should have made several sleeper lists but the industry failed to pick up on his productive but ignored 2017 season.  He’s the type of hitter owners need to focus on rostering, late-round injured hitters.

His stats speak volumes. Here are some of Haniger’s projections and results over the past two seasons.

His projection coming into 2017 was decent with a 20 HR and 8 SB profile when prorating to 600 PA. The season started out great until he went on the DL with an oblique injury which lasted for over a month. He came back from the DL, struggled, got hurt a coup of times (finger and face), and finally turned it on over the last month. This profile screams sleeper and everyone slept on him.

By just prorating his 2017 season to 600 PA, he would be at 23 dingers and 7 bags with an acceptable .282 AVG. His results were similar to another pre-season unknown, Marwin Gonzalez (23 HR, 8 SB, .303 AVG). Gonzalez’s average ADP was 123, about 100 picks before Haniger went off the board.

As for Haniger’s 2018 season, he showed the value of a well-rounded player. A near .300 batting average, over 20 homers, and about 10 stolen bases placed him as a  top-25 overall batter. Unexciting stats can still be good.

Going forward, owners can take several lessons from this failure. First, dig into hitters after pick 100 who struggled with injuries but showed positive production when healthy. Most owners are going to hope the top names like Kris Bryant and Jose Altuve will rebound. They aren’t going to surprise anyone. Instead, players like Kyle Seager (toe), Steven Souza Jr.(pec), and Jorge Soler (rib) might be acquired for nothing and end up being a top-50 player.

Another item is to prorate each player’s previous season to 600 plate appearances to see if anyone pops up if given more playing time. With Haniger’s nearly identical pro-rated 2017 and 2018 seasons, his 2017 season would have stood out and owners could have taken notice. Instead, he was relegated to the reserve rounds.

Missing on Haniger’s points to some obvious projects for me later in the offseason. Until then, let me know of any players who the industry missed on and there was no obvious cause.

Wade Miley will start Game 5 of the NLCS today in Los Angeles.

Wade Miley will start Game 5 of the NLCS today in Los Angeles.

Wade.

Miley.

will… OK, you get the point.

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When I hear or read about a hitter playing through an injury my interest perks up and he becomes an immediate draft target. Standard projections have no idea these players played hurt and the lower production keeps down future estimations. Savvy owners can give these players a small talent bump and reap some nice rewards. My current request to create a detailed list of hitters playing through injuries for 2019 preseason research and to test after next season.

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In a postseason where David Price, Clayton Kershaw and Luis Severino have hit some snags, it’s hard not to be impressed by the recent showings of Walker Buehler. In his first-ever postseason appearance against the Braves on Oct. 7, the 24-year-old rebounded from a five-run second inning to toss three perfect frames.

On Monday night, Buehler was outdueled by Jhoulys Chacin, but he cruised through his first five innings, allowing a run on two hits with eight strikeouts. While the Brewers padded their lead in the sixth and seventh innings, the two-run homer by Orlando Arcia that doubled their advantage to 4-0 had a hit probability of just 22 percent, according to Baseball Savant.
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In a world where almost everything requires nuance and subtlety (or at least it should), once in a while we are treated to a relatively simple explanation. In 2018, Carlos Correa’s side and back injuries were very likely the cause of his poor performance and reduced offensive production.

After a 2017 season that saw Correa post a .315/.391/.550 line with 24 home runs, he saw his overall production dip to .239/.323/.405 with 15 home runs in 468 PAs.

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The Braves have steadily fed their big league roster with talent from the minors but they continue to have the best prospect depth in the National League East.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Mike Soroka | RHP | AAA —> Although he’s not a flame-thrower, Soroka has everything you look for in a young pitcher — and future top-rotation arm. He still has a solid fastball in the 92-95 mph range, as well as two other above-average offerings. His control is above-average for his age and his command should be above-average in time. The biggest concern with the 6-5 hurler is his lack of durability and the shoulder issues that wiped out a good portion of his season. If healthy in 2019, he should be a solid contributor to the Braves’ rotation.

2. Ian Anderson | RHP | AA —> Like Soroka, Anderson has a three-pitch mix that should be better-than-average and his fastball ranges between 92-95 mph. The 20-year-old doesn’t have the above-average control, but it didn’t keep him from striking out 142 batters in 119.1 innings. He allows an average number of fly balls but did an excellent job of keeping balls in the park with just two homers allowed. Anderson has a solid pitcher’s frame and could a solid innings-eater as a No. 2-3 starter.

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The Nationals system has a few impact players but has a significant lack of depth — especially amongst the arms.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Victor Robles | OF | AAA —> Robles spent much of the year on the sidelines dealing with injuries while fellow outfield prospect Juan Soto zoomed to the Majors and had a major impact. If healthy in 2019, Robles should have a strong year, too, and has the ability to impact the game in almost every aspect. He is extremely athletic and has a chance to hit for average, power (although this will be his last tool to fully develop), steal a ton of bases and play plus defence.

2. Carter Kieboom | SS | AA —> Kieboom split the year between A-ball and double-A while showing solid offensive potential. And he has yet to fully tap into his raw power, which is manifesting more as gap pop right now. He also has a chance to produce above-average on-base numbers. Defensively, he has a chance to be an average shortstop but may eventually move to third base.

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Every season a few hitters come out of nowhere to become major fantasy contributors. And by nowhere, I mean no one targeted them at all during draft season, even in 50-man roster draft-and-holds. This past season, Max Muncy, Joey Wendle, and Luke Voit provided fantasy production for nothing. An interesting trait for each of these hitters is that savvy teams targeted them in trades before the breakout. In recent seasons, these breakouts include Chris Taylor. Jose Martinez. and Jesus Aguilar. While the general public doesn’t have the same resources, scouts, and data as major league teams, I found the general traits some teams are looking to acquire.

I asked for help in creating the list. I end up with many responses but I wanted productive hitters on no one’s radar. I removed a suggestion if the hitter was on any top-100 list (e.g. John Hicks) or if they were ever an MLB regular (e.g. Scooter Gennett). In the end, 12 hitters made the cut: Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Luke Voit, Joey Wendle, Jose Martinez, Jesus Aguilar, Teoscar Hernandez, Adam Duvall, Daniel Palka, Eugenio Suarez, Mitch Haniger, and Justin Turner.

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