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Reviewing My 2018 Bold Predictions

It’s that time of year! We’re reviewing our Bold Predictions as a staff to see just how comically wrong we were… er, I mean how well we did! Look, I always want to get as many of these right as possible, but there’s also a part of it where I’m just trying to put a guy on everyone’s radar (or take them off if it’s negative one) and so hitting the exact numbers isn’t always the biggest deal for me. I’ll grade mine under that notion, but if you think I’m being too lenient you can definitely let me know in the comments.

Ozzie Albies has a 15 HR/40 SB season

OK, this one is tough. I feel fully justified in my excitement over Albies this year. I was taking him in the top 100 without incident and he finished around the top 75 buuuut he was nowhere near the 40 SB and I definitely expected that to be a big part of his performance. I had him for 55 HR+SB and he landed at 38, powered by his 24 HR. He also didn’t top .800 OPS in any month after his .988 in April. I’ll take half point here.

0.5

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Sneaky September Standouts: AL Hitters

Many September performances can be glossed over because of how many people are checked out on baseball or zeroed in on just their players as they chase down a title. Some just dismiss the month entirely because of the expanded rosters, though I find that quite ridiculous as plenty of players put up their numbers against quality arms in the midst of pennant chases. Here is a standout September from each AL team from a player who could be worth paying attention to in 2019 as well.

AL EAST

Renato Nunez, BAL | 5 HR, .313 AVG in 85 PA

Nunez was a noteworthy prospect in Oakland, but never really clicked and wound up getting waived. After a quick stint in Texas, he ended up in Baltimore where he put some things together in a 60-game run. He closed with a big September and now enters his age-25 season with a chance at a full time role.

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Jeff Zimmerman’s End-Of-Season League Reviews

Every fantasy owner should sit down in the next week or so and reflect on what went right and wrong in their leagues. More than reflecting, they need to take a few notes on the journey to help themselves improve next season.

The process doesn’t need to take a while but an owner should at least get a couple points, good and bad, on each league. It’s time for a little humility because some owners need to continue to take positive small steps forward. The rest of us need to start catching up. Hopefully, the following will nudge a few owners to take some notes before going into offseason mode.

Reviewing My Leagues

Overall, my season was a huge disappoint and I knew it was going to be a rough finish a couple months into the season. I made so many preseason and early season mistakes, I could never recover. Here are my leagues in order of finish.

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New York Mets Top 10 Prospects Updated

The Mets down have the deepest system but there are some potential impact players bubbling up to the surface, as well as some intriguing sleepers.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Peter Alonso | 1B | AAA —> After flashing his potential in 2017, Alonso fully broke out this past season. He split the year between double-A and triple-A while mashing 36 homers. He also walked 76 times in 132 games (along with 128 Ks). The swing-and-miss tendencies will impact his ability to hit for average but he’s also still growing as a hitter and has shown the ability to make adjustments. He’s not overly athletic or quick so he may never be better than average at first base but the power should give him the ability to be an impact hitter.

2. Jarred Kelenic | OF | R —> Kelenic has a good plan at the plate, as well as a controlled, short swing that is quick to the ball. He also appears willing to use the whole field at times. A 2018 first rounder out of high school, he acclimatized quickly to pro ball and is said to have great makeup, which should help him get full value out of his tools. I’m not sold on his power potential but he could hit for average, get a healthy number of walks, steal bases and play above-average defence.

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Your Fantasy Season May Not Be Over

Note: If there ever was an article in flux it’ll be this one. Even though I’m the official author, Paul Sporer will be adding to it. At the time of publishing, the Rockies and Dodgers lineups were not available. Also, I’m off to read as much as I can until the game starts. Check back for updates or re-ranks.

Many fantasy owners expected the 2018 season to be over yesterday but it’s not. Two games are being played to decide the NL West & Central. Non AL-only owners need to quickly decide if today’s games count in their standings, can they change their lineups, and add players.

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Sunday Evening Fantasy Baseball Chat

7:30
Ryan: Where are you drafting Votto next year?

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: That’s a tough one but I’m likely looking at the 5th round or later. The back worries me. He’s turned into prime Joe Mauer but without being catcher eligible.

7:32
Trent: Suarez is a top 3 third baseman next year.  True?

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: One sec.

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s at least 6th behind Bregman, Arenado, Ramirez, Machado, and Bryant. The only one I could see an argument for being lower is Bryant

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30 Pitching Seasons You Might’ve Missed

Touring the league to highlight a pitcher per team whose efforts could’ve slipped past your radar.

Check out the hitters here.

American League

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS | 3.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 18% K-BB

The bottom half injuries continue to plague him, but the skills are still there when he is healthy and upright.

J.A. Happ, NYY | 3.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 26% K

This strong effort will help the 35-year old southpaw get a solid multi-year deal this winter.

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Teams Providing the Least 2018 Fantasy Value: Pitchers Edition

With the season coming to a close, now is a good time to look back to see which MLB teams provided fantasy owners with the most valuable pitching resources this season.

This chart looks at players currently ranked in the top-50 at starting pitcher and top-25 at relief pitcher in both CBS (points) and ESPN (roto) rankings – broken down by team. If you’re curious about which players ranked where, a detailed breakdown of the ranks are found here. If a player was eligible at both starting pitcher and relief pitcher, they were only included once, and if a player was ranked in the top 50/25 in one format, but not the other, they were not included. If a player was traded, the team which they pitched a greater number of innings was given credit.

Fantasy Value By Team
American League National League
Team Pitchers Ranked Team Pitchers Ranked
Indians 5 Mets 4
Red Sox 4 Dodgers 4
Yankees 3 Pirates 3
Mariners 3 Rockies 3
Astros 3 Brewers 3
Rangers 2 Cardinals 3
A’s 2 Nationals 2
Twins 1 Cubs 2
Tigers 1 D-Backs 2
Rays 1 Braves 1
Blue Jays 1 Phillies 1
White Sox 0 Reds 1
Royals 0 Padres 1
Orioles 0 Marlins 0
Angels 0 Giants 0

As was the case with the most valuable fantasy hitters, baseball’s better teams feature more pitching contributors than rebuilding and non-contending ones.

This didn’t stop the 73-84 Mets from contributing three starters and one reliever to the ranks. While Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Jeurys Familia were expected to pay fantasy dividends, Zack Wheeler (19 at CBS and 23 at ESPN) was one of fantasy’s biggest surprises in 2018. Wheeler posted a 3.31 ERA (3.24 FIP) and 179 strikeouts in 182.1 innings for the Mets this season. Most notably, Wheeler cut his walk rate– down to 2.79 BB/9 after posting a career rate of 3.57 BB/9. A change that Mets’ manager Mickey Callaway attributes to Wheeler attacking the strike zone more aggressively early in the count. Wheeler’s pedigree and approach changes will make him an interesting player heading into 2019 drafts.

The Mariners and fantasy owners enjoyed surprise seasons from Wade LeBlanc and Marco Gonzales. Neither Gonzales or LeBlanc generate a ton of K’s, but both pitchers limit walks and kept their ERA’s under 4.15 – good enough to rank towards the bottom of the top-50 in both points and roto formats at starting pitcher.

With more teams electing to take a committee approach to closing, the top relief pitchers featured several non/part-time closers in ESPN formats. Josh Hader, Adam Ottavino and David Robertson all rank in the top-25 at ESPN despite few saves to boost their value – Ottavino and Robertson have 11 saves between the two of them and Hader has 11 to his name. Relievers that spent the majority of their season closing – Shane Greene and Brad Boxberger, both of whom collected over 30 saves each, missed the top-25.

In Atlanta, only Mike Foltynewicz placed in the top-50 at both sites. Braves’ starters Sean Newcomb, Julio Teheran and Kevin Gausman all ranked in the top-50 in the CBS game. Anibal Sanchez, who has enjoyed a resurgent season at age-34, ranked 38th at ESPN and 60th at CBS. Sanchez’ FIP is three quarters of a run higher than his ERA (2.96) but still sits at a respectable 3.67. Sanchez has been able to limit home runs in 2018 (1.03 HR/9) and with homers down throughout baseball, the gopher balls that derailed his 2015-17 seasons may not be a problem for him moving forward, either.

The Cardinals enjoyed productive fantasy seasons from Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty and the now deposed closer, Bud Norris. A healthy Carlos Martinez or Alex Reyes and a rebound from Luke Weaver could mean even more fantasy value from the St. Louis staff in 2019.

On the offensive side of the game, only three teams failed to produce a fantasy hitter in the top-12 at any position. Only four teams contributed just one. When it comes to pitchers, the talent is more heavily concentrated at the top. Six teams failed to produce a fantasy starter or reliever on the list and eight more produced only one.

The Chicago White Sox might be the most promising of these teams. Some of their young pitchers – Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Carlos Rodon could take a step forward and provide fantasy value next season. Top prospect Michael Kopech will be sidelined for 2019 while he recovers from Tommy John surgery but could be an impact pitcher upon his return. Dylan Cease is another highly touted White Sox pitching prospect that looked good during his ten starts at double-A this summer. In addition to Kopech and Cease, Alec Hansen (91), Zack Burdi (111) and Dane Dunning (113) all place in the FanGraphs Top 131 prospect list.

Unfortunately for some of the worst performing teams, there doesn’t appear to be immediate help on the way. The Orioles, Royals and Giants don’t have a single pitching prospect ranked on the FanGraphs list. A rebound season from Madison Bumgarner or consistency from Dylan Bundy (stop me if you’ve heard this before) could be sources of fantasy value in 2019.

The Blue Jays (Nate Pearson), Angels (Griffin Canning) and Twins (Stephen Gonsalves) have only one prospect each on the list. Shohei Ohtani will likely miss 2019 (at least as a pitcher) but could be elite upon his return to the mound in Anaheim. Kyle Gibson, who just missed ranking this season, could place if he is able to repeat his performance. A rebound from Marcus Stroman or Aaron Sanchez is not out of the question, but also far from a sure thing given their recent performance and recurring finger problems.

Pitching can be tough to predict, but based on the 2018 results, there may be some teams that you want to steer clear of when drafting your 2019 fantasy pitching staff.


30 Hitting Seasons You Might’ve Missed

Touring the league to highlight a player per team whose efforts could’ve slipped past your radar.

National League

Johan Camargo, ATL | .272/.351/.456, 18 HR, 75 RBI

Put up quality offensive effort with dual eligibility at 3B and SS.

Adam Eaton, WAS | .298/.393/.410, 9 SB in 92 G

Posted his normal season production, but it might’ve been missed with just 92 games.

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Roto Riteup: September 25, 2018

This feels like the first win the Rangers have had in awhile:

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