Reviewing My 2018 Bold Predictions
It’s that time of year! We’re reviewing our Bold Predictions as a staff to see just how comically wrong we were… er, I mean how well we did! Look, I always want to get as many of these right as possible, but there’s also a part of it where I’m just trying to put a guy on everyone’s radar (or take them off if it’s negative one) and so hitting the exact numbers isn’t always the biggest deal for me. I’ll grade mine under that notion, but if you think I’m being too lenient you can definitely let me know in the comments.
Ozzie Albies has a 15 HR/40 SB season
OK, this one is tough. I feel fully justified in my excitement over Albies this year. I was taking him in the top 100 without incident and he finished around the top 75 buuuut he was nowhere near the 40 SB and I definitely expected that to be a big part of his performance. I had him for 55 HR+SB and he landed at 38, powered by his 24 HR. He also didn’t top .800 OPS in any month after his .988 in April. I’ll take half point here.
0.5
Gregory Polanco has a 30 HR/25 SB season
I might just quit SB bold predictions! I feel like they never come through for me. It’s just such a volatile stat. That said, Polanco fell seven homers shy of my prediction, too. He probably would’ve come very close to the 30 homers had he played a full season, but injuries limited him to 130 games. He did have a career year and hopefully he helped you if you took him, but I certainly can’t take a win here.
0
Kyle Schwarber hits 40 HR
He played a career-high 137 games, but hit four fewer homers than his 30 from last year. I totally fell for Workout Schwargod. I’ve always pushed back on the hype train with Schwarber as I found him to be overdrafted, However, I felt comfortable with the ADP around 160 this spring, but even that turned out to be an overpay and I just don’t think I’ll be in for 2019, especially if his ADP from Justin’s #2EarlyMocks holds as it offers no real discount (169).
0
Ian Kinsler puts up a .285 AVG/100 R/25 HR/25 SB
The 36-year old second baseman split his time between the Angels and Red Sox and put up 14 HR and 16 SB with a .240 AVG and just 66 runs.
0
Aaron Hicks has a 30 HR/20 SB/.380 OBP season
Ya, I’m definitely done with SB bold predictions. Hicks managed just over half the total I predicted (11 SB), but he popped 27 HR and had a .366 OBP, landing as a top 100 player against his 223 ADP. Drafting Hicks netted a real profit and so despite falling well short of the SB total, I think this is a win.
1
Robbie Ray finishes outside the Top 50 SPs
Hey, I got one right without stretching the rules! Ray put up a 3.93 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 123.7 innings. He did manage a 31% strikeout rate, but saw his walk rate surge to an untenable 13%.
1
Garrett Richards finishes inside the Top 25 SPs
I knew I needed health to get this one. He pitched 76 innings and had Tommy John surgery. I’m a sucker so I could see myself getting back in for a buck or two in 2020, but I no longer hold Richards up as a potential stud. Health just hasn’t gone his way and allowed him to fully unlock the skills his stuff suggests.
0
Aaron Sanchez finishes inside the Top 30 SPs
Another guy I got torched by a second straight year. He did pitch three times as many innings as 2017, but that meant just 105. He’s still far too hittable, walks too many, and has a below average strikeout rate. He will be just 26 years old in 2019, but I’m not in at anything more than a dollar.
0
Tanner Roark finishes inside the Top 35 SPs
This one started out pretty well as Roark carried a 3.63 ERA through his first 14 starts, but six starts later he was pushing a 5.00 with a 4.87. A 7-start run of a 1.61 got him back down to 3.95, but then he closed with a 7.29 in his last four starts and fell welllll short of the top 35.
0
A.J. Minter fans 100 batters
Honestly, this one was dead in the water a week into the season. A reliever isn’t reaching 100 Ks when they open with four straight K-less outings. He did manage a solid 28% strikeout rate from that point on, but even that extrapolated out to a full season would’ve only been 77 in 64 innings.
0
Total Score: 2.5 out of 10
My bold prediction for 2019…Khris Davis will hit .247.
Whoa, whoa, whoa, relax… far too bold! 🙂
On the one hand, you were right that Albies and Hicks had big seasons (although much of Albies’ production happened in the first month of the season) and were very profitable at their ADPs. On the other hand, when you predict 60 SBs for two guys who ended up at 25 total, you can’t really say that your prediction was right. I think a “half-point” for each is appropriate, if not generous.
And while you were right about Robbie Ray, anyone who dropped him before the All-Star break would have missed out on 75 innings of a 3.23 ERA (albeit with substantially worse peripherals). He obviously was disappointing to anyone who drafted him to be an ace, but those of us who picked him up off waivers when his frustrated owners finally dropped him were pretty happy. (And one could say the same thing to a lesser extent about Roark, who even with his September swoon had a solid second half.)
Anyways, great work as always, and thanks for the great season! I won my 12-team redraft for the second straight year in no small part due to the advice on Rotographs. Just not from these particular bold predictions, lol
Sporer is one of the best and his advice is very appreciated! But “half-points” for Hicks and Albies are far too generous. Hicks fell short of all 3 predicted totals. And if you drafted Albies hoping for help in SB, he didn’t help you. They were both very good, but not in the spirit of the bold predictions at all…
Of course, that’s picking a nit on hypothetical predictions we do for fun, not for actual fantasy advice (usually!).
2019: Mondesi hits 20+ hr and steals 50+
Not bold enough. He’s almost being draft a level where he NEEDS to do that
Specifics kill your chances at getting a bold prediction right.
True, but I’m not trying to do a buncha vague ones just to score points. That’s why I took pts on Albies and Hicks. If you liked what I said in the preseason and the BP Piece, you drafted them and profited nicely so I feel like they’re at least partial wins despite falling short on the SBs.
Paul, it would be great if you could include Twins prospect Wander Javier somewhere in your 2019 bold predictions.
I think we’re getting close to the point where the stolen base should be removed as a category in fantasy. It’s just not an important part of baseball right now
Yeah. Though to be fair, almost all the standard 5×5 categories are not “important” stats.
I’m not sure that’s true. Some of them aren’t necessarily predictive, but the bulk of them are plenty important for team success.
Interestingly there were actually more attempts per situation this year compared to last year
2018- had according to baseball-reference 66244 chances, with 3432 attempts. 5.181% chances
2017- had 66866 chances with 3461 attempts. 5.176% chances.
it’ll be interesting to see if that uptick continues- or if we see the decline resume(2016 was 5.344%, 2015 was 5.434%).