Reviewing My 2018 Bold Predictions

It’s that time of year! We’re reviewing our Bold Predictions as a staff to see just how comically wrong we were… er, I mean how well we did! Look, I always want to get as many of these right as possible, but there’s also a part of it where I’m just trying to put a guy on everyone’s radar (or take them off if it’s negative one) and so hitting the exact numbers isn’t always the biggest deal for me. I’ll grade mine under that notion, but if you think I’m being too lenient you can definitely let me know in the comments.

Ozzie Albies has a 15 HR/40 SB season

OK, this one is tough. I feel fully justified in my excitement over Albies this year. I was taking him in the top 100 without incident and he finished around the top 75 buuuut he was nowhere near the 40 SB and I definitely expected that to be a big part of his performance. I had him for 55 HR+SB and he landed at 38, powered by his 24 HR. He also didn’t top .800 OPS in any month after his .988 in April. I’ll take half point here.

0.5

Gregory Polanco has a 30 HR/25 SB season

I might just quit SB bold predictions! I feel like they never come through for me. It’s just such a volatile stat. That said, Polanco fell seven homers shy of my prediction, too. He probably would’ve come very close to the 30 homers had he played a full season, but injuries limited him to 130 games. He did have a career year and hopefully he helped you if you took him, but I certainly can’t take a win here.

0

Kyle Schwarber hits 40 HR

He played a career-high 137 games, but hit four fewer homers than his 30 from last year. I totally fell for Workout Schwargod. I’ve always pushed back on the hype train with Schwarber as I found him to be overdrafted, However, I felt comfortable with the ADP around 160 this spring, but even that turned out to be an overpay and I just don’t think I’ll be in for 2019, especially if his ADP from Justin’s #2EarlyMocks holds as it offers no real discount (169).

0

Ian Kinsler puts up a .285 AVG/100 R/25 HR/25 SB

The 36-year old second baseman split his time between the Angels and Red Sox and put up 14 HR and 16 SB with a .240 AVG and just 66 runs.

0

Aaron Hicks has a 30 HR/20 SB/.380 OBP season

Ya, I’m definitely done with SB bold predictions. Hicks managed just over half the total I predicted (11 SB), but he popped 27 HR and had a .366 OBP, landing as a top 100 player against his 223 ADP. Drafting Hicks netted a real profit and so despite falling well short of the SB total, I think this is a win.

1

Robbie Ray finishes outside the Top 50 SPs

Hey, I got one right without stretching the rules! Ray put up a 3.93 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 123.7 innings. He did manage a 31% strikeout rate, but saw his walk rate surge to an untenable 13%.

1

Garrett Richards finishes inside the Top 25 SPs

I knew I needed health to get this one. He pitched 76 innings and had Tommy John surgery. I’m a sucker so I could see myself getting back in for a buck or two in 2020, but I no longer hold Richards up as a potential stud. Health just hasn’t gone his way and allowed him to fully unlock the skills his stuff suggests.

0

Aaron Sanchez finishes inside the Top 30 SPs

Another guy I got torched by a second straight year. He did pitch three times as many innings as 2017, but that meant just 105. He’s still far too hittable, walks too many, and has a below average strikeout rate. He will be just 26 years old in 2019, but I’m not in at anything more than a dollar.

0

Tanner Roark finishes inside the Top 35 SPs

This one started out pretty well as Roark carried a 3.63 ERA through his first 14 starts, but six starts later he was pushing a 5.00 with a 4.87. A 7-start run of a 1.61 got him back down to 3.95, but then he closed with a 7.29 in his last four starts and fell welllll short of the top 35.

0

A.J. Minter fans 100 batters

Honestly, this one was dead in the water a week into the season. A reliever isn’t reaching 100 Ks when they open with four straight K-less outings. He did manage a solid 28% strikeout rate from that point on, but even that extrapolated out to a full season would’ve only been 77 in 64 innings.

0

Total Score: 2.5 out of 10

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. He is the purveyor of the SP Guide (on hiatus for '17). Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer, on Snapchat at psporer, and on Twitch at psporer24.

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My bold prediction for 2019…Khris Davis will hit .247.