10 Hitters with 1st Round Upside
I read a piece this week from Will Leitch about 10 dark-horse MVP candidates for 2019. I love pieces like that I wanted to bring that similar idea to the fantasy landscape. Replacing “MVP” with “top 10 hitter” which is essentially first round was easy part, but I wasn’t sure what threshold would be worthwhile and highlight some players we’re not already full hyping.
There is only one top 10 hitter this year who had a 2018 ADP later than 66 (Ronald Acuña at 128) and only Christian Yelich (66, obviously) joined him outside the top 33, but I thought inside the top 100 was too easy. Or not necessarily “easy” because identifying the players who will jump into next year’s top 10 hitters is insanely tough once you get past pick 30 or so, but getting drafted within the top 100 is essentially a co-sign that you could surge into those top two rounds. I decided to use 150 as my starting point.
I’ve got 10 hitters currently going outside the top 150 capable of having that dream breakout season needed to make “the leap”. I’ll identify the evolution we could see in their skills to reach the lofty heights worthy pushing to the 1st-2nd round area. After writing them up, I’ll give a 600 PA projection of what the dream season could look like if it comes to fruition. This is a mix of their career performance, their skills profile, projections, and then some dream dust sprinkled on top to get them into the 90th+ percentile of their potential outcomes.
Ramon Laureano | OAK, 160 Average Draft Position
How He Gets There: Laureano’s already got a premium glove that will keep him in the lineup and to truly breakout he will need to parlay that opportunity into a power-speed explosion. He stole 36 bases per 600 PA in the minors, including 43 in 2016, and stole 18 bases at an 86% clip across Triple-A and MLB last year. We’ve seen flashes of power in the minors, but it didn’t really jump until last year when he had a .228 ISO in Triple-A and maintained it with a .186 in his 176 MLB PA. The end result was 19 HR across the combined 460 PA.
Potential Dream Season: .287 AVG, 23 HR, 95 R, 78 RBI, 30 SB in 600 PA
Best Statistical Comps Since 2016: Jean Segura 2016 (.319-20-102-64-33), Starling Marte 2018 (.277-20-81-72-33)
Rafael Devers | BOS, 165
How He Gets There: He’s a premium prospect who flopped in his first full season, but I’m not quitting the 22-year old. He talked about carrying some extra weight last year that held him back and he might be our first “best shape of his life” story of the new year as he’s slimmed down in hopes of taking off in 2019. The new physique will hopefully spur a return of his premium bat while also allowing him to contribute a bit on the bases.
Potential Dream Season: .312 AVG, 31 HR, 96 R, 108 RBI, 9 SB in 600 PA
Best Statistical Comps Since 2016: Freddie Freeman 2016 (.302-34-102-91-6), Jose Abreu 2017 (.304-33-95-102-3)
Austin Meadows | TB, 184
How He Gets There: Meadows was a consensus top 10 prospect prior to 2017, but slogged through 81 games (.707) and dropped 35-40 spots as a result coming into last season. He responded with his best season as a pro that included a 191 PA MLB sample with Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, posting a .287 AVG, 6 HR, and 5 SB. He will have to maintain his early MLB success against lefties to have the mega-season we’re looking for here and if he gets a full-scale opportunity in Tampa Bay there’s some real untapped potential for the 24-year old.
Potential Dream Season: .304 AVG, 24 HR, 97 R, 89 RBI, 24 SB in 600 PA
Best Statistical Comps Since 2016: Tommy Pham 2017 (.306-23-95-73-25)
Garrett Hampson | COL, 203
How He Gets There: First, he’ll need an unencumbered opportunity at 2B. The departure of DJ LeMahieu certainly helps that, but Colorado seems to love blocking their young bats so we’re not out of the woods yet. Additionally, Hampson has to fully leverage his elite speed (8th in sprint speed at 30.0 ft/sec) and incredible home park while also not tanking on the road. Some power growth wouldn’t hurt, but it’s not necessary.
Potential Dream Season: .320 AVG, 11 HR, 101 R, 69 RBI, 45 SB in 600 PA
Best Statistical Comps Since 2016: Whit Merrifield 2018 (.304-12-88-60-45), Starling Marte 2016 (.311-9-71-46-47)
Adam Eaton | WAS, 204
How He Gets There: Stay healthy. It really is that simple. He’s managed just 477 PA in his two years with Washington, but he’s been great during that limited time (124 wRC+). Yes, he will need to max his skills, too, but staying on the field is definitely the major hurdle here.
Potential Dream Season: .324 AVG, 14 HR, 106 R, 64 RBI, 22 SB in 600 PA
Best Statistical Comps Since 2016: Hampson’s with less speed or Andrew Benintendi 2018 (.290-16-103-87-21)
Jackie Bradley Jr. | BOS, 207
How He Gets There: Jason Collette’s going to love this one. He recently wrote up JBJ in his AL East Bold Predictions ($):
StatCast shows he left a lot of production on the table as his expected weighted on base average trailed his actual by 30 points. The indicators show recent increased in exit velocity and getting more loft to the baseball making a 20/20 season with plenty of runs possible in 2019. If he can pick up where he left off in 2018 with his hard contact, he could have a special season
The defense assures the spot, he has a brilliant career 89% SB rate, and surged in power last year. This mega projection would also require a move up the lineup, but we’re dreaming here, so there are bound to be a few caveats.
Potential Dream Season: .285 AVG, 27 HR, 91 R, 94 RBI, 23 SB in 600 PA
Best Statistical Comps Since 2016: Pham’s 2017 and Benintendi’s 2018 again or Ian Desmond 2016 (.285-22-107-86-21)
Tyler White | HOU, 243
How He Gets There: This one might be the wildest of the bunch. It’d require him building on his excellent 2018 run (144 wRC+ in 237 PA) and slot into the middle of the Astros order. He put up the famed .300/.400/.500 line in 2249 minor league PA (.305/.404/.509 to be exact) with fantastic plate skills (15% K, 13% BB). We will need to see those skills at the MLB level for this to happen.
Potential Dream Season: .300 AVG, 31 HR, 96 R, 104 RBI, 3 SB in 600 PA
Best Statistical Comps Since 2016: Anthony Rendon 2017 (.301-25-81-100-7) w/a different HR/SB split, but still close on the total of the two.
Jake Bauers | CLE, 248
How He Gets There: Bauers will need to maximize his speed, carryover the power gains from his MLB debut (.183 ISO), and recapture his minor league plate skills (17% K, 11% BB). This one is particularly lofty because the power really came on strong last year and he’s never had a 15 HR season, but let’s see what the dream season looks like.
Potential Dream Season: .282 AVG, 24 HR, 96 R, 88 RBI, 22 SB in 600 PA
Best Statistical Comps Since 2016: Elvis Andrus 2017 (.297-20-100-88-25), Andrew Benintendi 2017 (.271-20-84-90-20)
Nick Senzel | CIN, 260
How He Gets There: Well, he needs to find a role first. He’ll also need a clean bill of health, including his vertigo, but from there his natural skills can just take over en route to an elite rookie season.
Potential Dream Season: .318 AVG, 23 HR, 94 R, 88 RBI, 18 SB in 600 PA
Best Statistical Comps Since 2016: Jose Ramirez 2017 (.318-29-107-83-17), Charlie Blackmon 2017 (.324-29-111-82-17)
Kyle Tucker | HOU, 278
How He Gets There: Well, he needs to find a role first. Josh Reddick is a perfectly solid MLB outfielder, but he’s not truly blocking off someone of Tucker’s talent. If my other Astro doesn’t exactly take off, the DH spot could be freed up for Michael Brantley which clears left for Tucker. Or maybe the Astros re-join the Realmuto trade talks and include Tucker… but we don’t want that at all.
Potential Dream Season: .283 AVG, 29 HR, 90 R, 98 RBI, 32 SB in 600 PA
Best Statistical Comps Since 2016: Wil Myers 2016 (.259-28-99-94-28), Paul Goldschmidt 2016 (.297-24-106-95-32)
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Tucker and Senzel are really tough picks for an exercise like this because they’re not going to get a full season to achieve their numbers. At the very least both are going to miss a couple weeks out front. But as I’m sure you realized early on in this piece, it’s not about the guys actually reaching these thresholds, but rather shining a light on their skills and dreaming on what they could be in a 90th percentile kind of season. Realistically, maybe one of these guys will really pull this off, but I thought this was a better way of highlighting some players I like instead of just doing a “10 hitters I like going later than 150” piece.
Who is your favorite target off this list?
Who do you like outside the top 150 hitters (click here, select Online for the draft, set the date to 01/01/2019, and then select UT to get all the hitters) to make a major surge in ’19?
I love this. Very useful for dynasty too, as it does a great job of highlighting potential even if it doesn’t pan out this season.
I was on the fence about keeping JBJ and even Laureano, so this is very insightful.
I guess I never will get the hype around here regarding JBJ. Without his defense value in fantasy he is barely rosterable. How exactly is he going to hit .285, 40 points over his steamer projection, 20 over his career best? He also didnt “surge” in power last year, his ISO was 80 points below his career high 4 years ago and right in line with 2017.
He’s also done the good half/terrible half thing for the last 4 seasons so I wouldn’t count last year’s 2nd as a breakout. He’s definitely rosterable in deep enough leagues (AL-only, 15 team, 5OF) because 15/15 plays regardless of the bad average.
Paul might be the only guy hyping JBJ. He is open about it…
Fun exercise:
165: Miguel Cabrera seems like the most obvious choice. He is a guy whose done it many times, and posted a 128 wRC+ with elite exit velocity that was returning after the injury. Time isn’t on his side, but I would generally pass on E5 and wait a round or two for Miggy on the off-chance I somehow can’t get Olson or Muncy or Gallo. If at the end of this year someone told you miggy hit .320 with 30HR’s you’d be surprised, but there isn’t a single guy going that late who basically averaged .320 and 30 HR’s a year for their career.
177: Byron Buxton. Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on you. But notice they never say anything about being fooled three times. He is also probably the most likely non-closer whose off the board at this point to be dropped. He basically never gets thrown out when he steals, and not sure if top 10 is out there, but a dream season of 25 HRS and 60SBs would get him close, even with a miserable batting average.
211: Franmil: The playing time situation scares me, as does the “he will be ready for spring training” coming off knee surgery. But if you prorate his whole season he isn’t as far away as you would think with a better line up around him, and if you prorate what he did when he returns? Well, that gets you close to the #1 overall player with a laughable .315 w 38 home runs.
334: Franchy. Back to the Padres outfield. Admittedly not even sure he has a path to playing time, and you can dream on a trade to the Indians, but when you hit the ball as hard as Stanton and Judge, and you run faster than Dee Gordon, there is a lot to dream on.
It gets a lot more difficult deep (obv). Some guys of note super deep: Tyler O’neil, Asivail Garcia (both of the freakishly fast/strong variety. Yes Asivail is freakishly fast (even though he is top 5 in weight in the MLB!) Grichuk as he is one of the best power hitters, imagine if he can start making contact. Also I like your Eaton pick. His runs per game is absurd. Also basically everyone in the 150-170 range Mazara, Moncada, Ninmo, Bader, etc.
This post, and what I wrote in response has basically got me rethinking my draft strategy. So far this year I get 1 or 2 aces, then I am going after pitching hard in this tier (150-200) trying to get 3 of Bieber, Pivetta, Glasnow Heaney, Hamels, Ryu, James. Usually I have to start about a round early when guys with incredibly high floors like Cano and Peralta are still on board.
Maybe, I could grab an upside hitter or two, and end up with more Reyes, Musgrove, McHugh, Skaggs, Luzardo, Nelson. Matz, because honestly, flip a coin on which 7 is better. More playing time risk in the second group of 7, but also equal (or better) upside and drafting pitching outside the top 10-20 is always risky anyhow.
Interesting. My top two picks were Franmil and another Padre, Renfroe. My next two were Cabrera (why is everyone ignoring him) and Buxton. If Buxton could stay healthy and improve his eye he could be a top 10.
I actually like Renfroe a lot too. In his career he has hit 56 HRs in 956 plate appearances with basically a same home run rate at every stop since 2016, which, if you give him 650PA = 38 home runs. I actually just threw a $20 on him leading the league in HR’s at 200 to 1. The issue is playing time, but at 200 to 1 who cares:)
Someone has to move, right? Now Myers says he will not play the infield, so now you have Myers, Franmil, Renfroe (none of whom can play center) and Franchy, Margot, and Janikowski one of whom has to play center. Literally all those guys are drafted in most leagues, with Janikowski drafted in NL leagues/ or around 500 overall. Roster resource which tends to be reliable has Franmil starting in the minors. Now I don’t buy that, but someone has to move. There has to be a trade, right??? It is literally been the situation I have followed more than any other situation in all of baseball this offseason, as I think there is an absurd amount of fantasy value in the SD OF. A rumor I have heard is Franchy trying 3rd base in spring training. Now I feel like there is no chance that happens, as a couple years ago when he played SS he was like the worst defensive player ever, but the team has been willing to try defenders in the wrong position frequently (see Myers at 3rd last year). For the sake of my fantasy team I’d like to see it:)
Everyone is ignoring Miggy because fantasy sports have an extreme bias toward recent performance and young players.
Buxton and Miguel are well inside the top 150, but both good choices as well.
Buxton is 171, Miggy is 172. https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp – set to 1/1/19 and pick Draft Champions.
Ya, no they aren’t. I literally copied and pasted the adp from nfbc. Didn’t use draft championship, but in basically no format are they going inside the top 150.
What ever happened to Dansby Swanson? He’s still only 24, was a number 1 overall pick, and is fading into roto obscurity. Is there no hope for him to recover that upside potential?
Ya I don’t see a ton of roto upside here. He’s one of those prospects who had more real life value than fantasy thanks to his glove at short so there’s that disconnect of top prospect/top pick v. waiver wire fantasy fodder.
Bwhahahahaha
Oh yeah, not saying you should have included him, just correcting the idea that he will miss half the season. The time frame was 7-9 mos and 7 mos puts him back mid-April and that is what the reports suggest.
He never had the upside. We can all see that now, but for a while we trusted something we couldn’t see. People were just wrong.
Laureano was the first guy I thought of when I read the headline! Hoping to own a lot of shares
I agree, but I’m not sure why I’m so optimistic.
Love all these picks, I’d also add Franmil (with playing time), and Ketel Marte.
Where’s Gleyber going? He gets lost in the Yankee mix I think. Could be .300, 25 hr, 110 runs, 80 rbi, 15 sb with 2b and prob ss
Going super early, usually have to get him in the 4th round. 56th overall.
You thought you had a sleeper lol
Gregory Polanco… because *this* is the year he runs freely, knocks out at least 20 and doesn’t get injured. He will also be tired of teasing us all these years and just be done with it.
He’s already going to miss somewhere on the order of half the season, so that not getting injured part is already out the window (and I love polanco and it bums me out)
He isnt going to miss more than April, he is way ahead in recovery already swinging the bat.
We’ll see. Conforto returned early and didn’t really get going until the 2H so even if Polanco comes back ahead of schedule, I’m not going to have major expectations. He’d EASILY make this kind of list with some health (though his ADP would probably be too high if he wasn’t hurt), but I just couldn’t with him staring at 6-8 weeks missed off the top.
Isn’t he out until June though?
Ach!! Apparently I don’t read enough… well, then indeed it’s completely out the window. Unless he goes on a Gary Sanchez-like spree. Oh forget it.
Man, that WBC year it looked like he was going to be a top 10 player and then poof!
All good thoughts. What about Jorge Soler? Guy was a big time prospect that was quietly having a good season for a crappy team in 2018 before he got hurt. His numbers are close to identical to Tyler White’s last season.
How about Ketel Marte (no. 240)? If he attempts more SB due to the D-Backs putting him at the top of the order and the team not contending, he could put up a 20-20 season with a .300 BA.
Good name. I’ve come around on him after being out the last couple seasons. Intriguing later round player for sure!
While I don’t see him being as likely a candidate as some of the ones mentioned here, I’m hopeful about Yoan Moncada.
Moncada is just outside the top 150 overall… but way inside the top 150 hitters at 100.
Love this concept — I feel like choosing the prospects could be cheating a bit (namely Senzel and Tucker), but I recognize this is a herculean task to identify guys that could be top 10 (!) currently going outside the top 150 picks. Love the boldness! 🙂
Vlad jr is probably better than Senzel and has a position.
He’s also not going outside of the top 150, so you know, isn’t eligible for this exercise.
most player mentioned are not, so don’t feel too bad
They’re all outside the top 150. Their ADPs are listed.
Umm, when you say top 150 you don’t mean hitters. No one in the history of ever has. You mean in the top 150 overall.
That’s not really accurate. Versatility and team depth isn’t really a knock on a player. Vlad is going 27th, which is another small detail.
In reality, they have no chance as they won’t even open the season in MLB. Is it really a good choice? Chances they outproduce Jed Lowrie?
Awesome write-up!
Will definitely use this for my draft. I could see a few of these guys having a dream-ish season here in the near future.
I think Jake Bauers could get pretty close to Benintendi’s 2017 season soon with a full season of PAs.
You just say what you think could happen without really explaining how.
It’s covered in the “How he gets there:” right under each players name.
Love the article Paul. Looking forward to the Austin Meadows breakout. With a healthy Kiermaier and Pham, this TB outfield can be underrated.
The chances of anything about TB being underrated are negative.
Luke Voit, Josh Bell, and Jose Martinez if he gets a full time dh gig
Love this post / concept! Later in drafts, there’s a lot of guys with similar projections + it’s definitely a huge value to know who among them has the potential to real pop if everything falls right.
Not sure Matt Chapman’s ADP, but he seems like another one we can dream on . . . the prime, non-injured Donaldson comp definitely comes to mind here, as well as a Kris Bryant-esque 30-35 100/100 .280, perhaps. Plus, maybe Chapman uses that surprisingly excellent speed to steal the token 7-9 in that dream scenario.
Definitely agreed on Chapman — he’s already a real-life superstar due to his elite defense and quality bat. Can definitely dream on him taking another step. But he misses the 150 cutoff for this article — currently going ~114 by NFBC ADP.
70th… not a huge value. Good Donaldson is several tiers above Bryant. Look up Bryant’s stats, I think you will be surprised! One is a great season for a young guy and one is a HOFer.
I’m still probably too interested in Super Yandy Diaz. The Rays are an analytics driven franchise that gave up more than they probably needed to for him – if they change his launch angle he’s got the power to drive 30+ HRs annually.
Yandy doesn’t need analytics to know that hitting balls int he air helps them travel over a fence. The idea that you can keep all the positives and also change the swing isn’t how it works. That is how a video game works though!
Well Ronnie, in this case you may be wrong. If Super Yandy changes his swing, he’s still going to be a completely yolked MegaHulk capable of swinging a bat hard enough to summon a cyclone.
Not saying changing his swing is a simple process. I know that Rays coaches won’t simply walk up to him and go “no man, swing UPwards, hit dongers” and everything will be fixed. That being said, dozens of MLB players have changed their swings to improve their launch angle and seen great success because of that (see: Daniel Murphy). The fact that Yandy has legs for arms makes me (and others, I assume) believe he’d still have a great deal of power after changing his swing.
One hitter with 1.1 upside: Wander Javier.
lol @ JBJ. Guy is a career .238 hitter over almost 2500 plate appearances. Per 162 game averages of a lofty 17 HR and 11 SB except the guy has only topped 140 games twice. D may keep him in the lineup, but he’ll be slotted in the 8 or 9 spot. Even on the loaded Sox, not good.
I’ll take the under on “special season”. Guy is a drain on fantasy lineups. Enjoy though.
That’s why he’s going outside the top 200 — elements of what you’re referring to are priced in. While we’re citing historical stats, he also has a full season of 267/349/486 with 26 HR, 94 runs, 87 RBI and 9 SB in 636 PA’s (2016). So while unlikely, it’s not completely outlandish to think he’s capable of that level of production.
And the entire concept of the article is identifying some potential “moonshots” — by definition, they’re unlikely — so you’re not exactly going out on a limb by taking the “under.”
There are just other players that are better lottery tickets and yes while he does have 1 good season on his resume, I’d lean towards what he averages (obviously), not what he did once. If the dream line listed above had a .255 average instead of .285, maybe I’d squint and see it. But still we’re talking about a player with a career.238/.317/.403. line.
I mean, you can make theoretically make an argument for any player in an article like this, right? If the goal is a lottery ticket, I’ll just take a guy who doesn’t have the history of mediocrity. Several of the players on this list will be targets of mine. Just not JBJ.
I think Willy Adames at 228 and Ryan O’Hearn at 332 are good sleeper bets. Adames’ BABIP during his second half breakout will likely come down and O’Hearn can’t hit lefties, but if either one can replicate their second half successes, they are super-bargains at those draft positions.
I think Meadows should worry about staying on the field before anyone worries about him being a Top 10 Overall Player. He’s had over 375 PA only twice in 6 professional seasons. Never made it to 600. Guy is fragile so far.
I agree, and that is a contributing factor to why I think Brandon Lowe will get PT with Tampa and this guy has every opportunity to post good power / obp numbers for the Rays this year. He absolutely raked last year across levels despite an MLB slump at the onset of his call up.
I don’t think Meadows is actually a very strong upside play. He is still coasting on his pre-draft scouting report.
Hampson screams utility player to me, but sure if he hits and runs like crazy you can dream… I find it interesting that we have lost the knowledge that we had ten years ago when you didn’t want to chase BABIP/SB players. May as well draft Scott Podsednik late!
Bauers has never hinted at anything resembling elite upside at any level. Granted he did play for the Rays, which is good for your upside.
One thing that is true of the juiced ball era is that fluky performances are even flukier. It no longer takes a good swing to hit a HR and it shows up in the numbers. I don’t think we should ever get excited about a big month, which is what a lot of the power upsides get based on, which is luck more than skill. Bad swings are going to produce a wide range of results.
Most of these players upside is not that of the first round, which just makes them upside plays but that doesn’t have the same ring to it. The older players on the list are probably better values than the younger ones given the way people are drafting this year. In any case, interesting read. I’ll grab a few names from past 150 and post below just to prove that I am not just here to piss and moan.
“Most of these players upside is not that of the first round, which just makes them upside plays but that doesn’t have the same ring to it.”
No duh, man. I gotta ask, did you even read the piece? At no point did I suggest that these were high percentage plays to become 1st rounders.
As for your “critiques”, you don’t really offer any insight whatsoever. How is Meadows coasting on prospect reports? Why isn’t Hampson good? What makes Bauers so bad?
I’m all for comments and critiques, but you found a way to reel off 13 comments without actually adding anything to the conversation. That’s almost impressive!
If the criteria is past 150, I don’t see first rounders… but a few under-drafted is more reasonable. Really even finding everyday players is pretty hard in that range, but that is what I would look for.
Adam Jones sticks out as a good possible buy-low. He could also be worthless, but he is the epitome of a buy-low if he lands a good gig, which is not a given. FG might not like his WAR or wOBA, but he swings a real bat pretty well. I am not actually sure he is under-drafted given all the uncertainty, but his future could improve any day.
I hate to point out Souza, but he has pretty clear SB and HR upside while hitting in the heart of a lineup. Not long ago he was a younger more exciting player.
Jay Bruce should play every day. If he puts 2018 behind him, then he can provide a lot of value. He is going to have plus eligibility too.
Maikel Franco probably has the most to realistically offer fantasy players in that tier. He could very well hit 30+ HR with a respectable AVG if he found a new team, but Kapler won’t let that happen. Franco’s value in 2018 was as suppressed as anyone due to lineup placement. There really isn’t a reason he couldn’t hit in the heart of someones order with minimal improvements. Given that he has made zero improvements in four years, a few aren’t hard to ask for, right?
Lowrie is an obvious one. Sure his role isn’t clear but that team doesn’t have players that will push him to the bench or stay healthy. He is going later than a lot of guys he shouldn’t go behind.
Voit, Franmil, Odor, Dozier, Donaldson, Grandal, Grichuk, D Santana, Choi, J Bell
Not sure if you have an imperfect understanding of where batting averages come from or you’re just saying dream season as in best luck ever. Steamer has its highest projected batting average at .307. That sounds about right. It is incredibly difficult to put together a component batting average of anything above .315. Why it occasionally happens in real life is due to a huge amount of luck (or you’re Ichiro and even he had .310ish seasons at the height of his powers). Throwing out multiple guys with a .320 batting average even in their “dream season” seems beyond the pale.
I mean, he isn’t projecting them for that. He is saying if everything comes together for them into a perfect season. Also, Miguel Cabrera is a .316 career lifetime hitter. Clearly he isn’t the same hitter he used to be, but peep this “batting average” by year:
.294, .323, .339, .320, .292, .324, .328, .344, .330, .348. Now at that point in his career you would say a .320 batting average prediction would be unreasonably low, not the other way around. After that he dipped way down to .313..but then right back to .338. Then he had his injured years of .316, .249, .299. I’d take the over on .300 for him in a healthy year. Obviously he isn’t prime miggy, but I don’t think it is unreasonable to think he has another good year or two in him barring health. This isn’t Pujols. Pujols stopped hitting entirely, whereas Miggy looked to be starting to get back to his old form when he went down again. Miggy would just need to put up his career average numbers (obviously highly unlikely) and he would put up top 10 value.
The Ichiro example was more to discourage cherry-picking. Also, Adam Eaton is not Miggy. Also, Miggy is not Miggy. Miggy is Miguel Tejada. I’m not sure when recycled nicknames became a thing but I’m still not okay with it.
Billy Hamilton baby, it’s happening.
Cedric Mullins has the capability to do something like:
.290 AVG
17 HR
35 SB
110 R
85 RBI
Very good contact skills and speed with some pop… should hit lead-off for O’s with plenty of Runs
Current ADP: around 283