Man, I thought I missed baseball…
My bench in the Main Event is straight 🔥 pic.twitter.com/E1oPPUO66X
— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) April 1, 2019
4/1/19
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!
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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS
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Another week into the season and another week of drops. I’ve categorized all the drops in 10 or more NFBC Main Event Leagues and some other names I find interesting.
Man, I missed baseball…
spider Puig spider Puig, does whatever a spider Puig does 🕷😂😝 pic.twitter.com/K7az4QNCJy
— Yasiel Puig (@YasielPuig) March 31, 2019
| 7:33 |
: I’m going to focus on answering WW and FAAB question and then go back through and answer general fantasy questions.
|
| 7:33 |
: In a 10 team h2h 6×6 with ops and k/9, what % should I be bidding on Kike Hernandez and Corbin Burnes?
|
| 7:33 |
: 3% to 5% each
|
| 7:33 |
: top 3 waiver wire adds?
|
| 7:34 |
: Way too vague
|
| 7:34 |
: Jay Bruce, Kole Calhoun or Scott Schebler going forward?
|
Last season, I started collecting FAAB bids from the NFBC Main Event to help estimate the player costs. It’s time to start the 2019 estimates for week two. The process is far from perfect but it does provide a bidding guideline. I use the NFBC Main Event because it contains 37 15-team leagues but each individual league is going to have its own unique dynamics. Understanding and trackings the differences are key for each owner. Owners need to take these player guesstimates and see how they compare to their own league. It may seem like too much work but can really help to determine how much to spend.
In our book, The Process, Tanner Bell and I broke down the 2018 FAAB bidding in detail going over the various trends. We found that player bids fit into three types:
Here are this week’s estimated FAAB with the ownership percentages from CBSSportsline and bid estimates for the NFBC Main Event ($1000 Budget, low bid of $1). I use CBS’s ownership rates since they divide the ownership by weeks but also allow daily pickups. An early player demand rate can be seen from these daily pickups.
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolten Wong 2B | STL | 6% | 15% | 9% | $34 |
| Chad Pinder LF | OAK | 11% | 17% | 6% | $31 |
| Tim Beckham SS | SEA | 17% | 53% | 36% | $146 |
| Enrique Hernandez CF | LAD | 15% | 50% | 35% | $138 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B | TB | 20% | 33% | 13% | $50 |
| Greg Bird 1B | NYY | 17% | 27% | 10% | $41 |
| Adam Frazier 2B | PIT | 22% | 25% | 3% | $33 |
| Ryon Healy 1B | SEA | 22% | 33% | 11% | $46 |
| Jung Ho Kang 3B | PIT | 27% | 40% | 13% | $55 |
| Joc Pederson LF | LAD | 27% | 43% | 16% | $64 |
| Austin Barnes C | LAD | 31% | 40% | 9% | $49 |
| Jorge Alfaro C | MIA | 29% | 34% | 5% | $41. |
| Kole Calhoun RF | LAA | 30% | 34% | 4% | $40 |
| Troy Tulowitzki SS | NYY | 30% | 40% | 10% | $51 |
| Jonathan Lucroy C | LAA | 32% | 35% | 3% | $40 |
| Niko Goodrum 2B | DET | 37% | 54% | 17% | $79 |
| Adam Jones CF | ARI | 36% | 42% | 6% | $48 |
| Fernando Tatis SS | SD | 56% | 88% | 32% | $184 |
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Rogers RP | MIN | 5% | 14% | 9% | $51 |
| Matt Shoemaker SP | TOR | 6% | 13% | 7% | $27 |
| Bryse Wilson RP | ATL | 8% | 20% | 12% | $31 |
| Greg Holland RP | ARI | 14% | 46% | 32% | $133 |
| Eric Lauer SP | SD | 14% | 57% | 43% | $98 |
| Jordan Zimmermann SP | DET | 9% | 18% | 9% | $28 |
| Pablo Lopez SP | MIA | 12% | 32% | 20% | $41 |
| Wily Peralta RP | KC | 14% | 20% | 6% | $49 |
| Frankie Montas SP | OAK | 10% | 20% | 10% | $29 |
| Jeremy Jeffress RP | MIL | 16% | 24% | 8% | $52 |
| Dakota Hudson RP | STL | 21% | 39% | 18% | $40 |
| Domingo German SP | NYY | 27% | 42% | 15% | $37 |
| Kyle Wright RP | ATL | 24% | 37% | 13% | $34 |
| Caleb Smith SP | MIA | 26% | 38% | 12% | $33 |
| Wade Miley SP | HOU | 29% | 40% | 11% | $33 |
| Trevor Richards SP | MIA | 32% | 54% | 22% | $49 |
| Matthew Boyd SP | DET | 30% | 38% | 8% | $31 |
| Matt Harvey SP | LAA | 35% | 44% | 9% | $33 |
| Freddy Peralta SP | MIL | 37% | 81% | 44% | $110 |
| Jake Junis SP | KC | 38% | 49% | 11% | $35 |
| Brandon Woodruff RP | MIL | 39% | 63% | 24% | $56 |
| David Hernandez RP | CIN | 2% | 3% | 1% | $25 |
| Cory Gearrin RP | SEA | 1% | 1% | 0% | $25 |
| Blake Parker RP | MIN | 11% | 14% | 3% | $26 |
Thoughts:
3/29/19
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!
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Day 1 SPs Of Interest
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3/29/19
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!
Follow us on Twitter
GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!
NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
If any stat can be monitored with a small sample, it’s pitch velocity. Fastball velocity stabilized with a sample of ‘1’. Just one fastball is enough to know a pitcher’s velocity going forward. I collected the Opening Day starters’ fastball velocities and compared them to last year’s values. It’s all we can really do at this point in the season.
Additionally, I compared this year’s and last year’s pitch mix. Mainly, I was hoping to find if a starter dumped or added a pitch. I didn’t mention a pitch if its usage didn’t change by 10% points or more.
Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008 and wraps up with the 30th and final piece with the 2019 baseball season now upon us.
If you were perusing this series in late 2017 you would have read:
The Sleeper: Myles Straw, OF: I’m a sucker for hitters like Straw. He’s one of those speedy guys that understands he just needs to get on base to be valuable and sacrifices the power to make contact. He also uses what the pitchers give him and will constantly pepper the opposite field. He’s no threat to hit even five homers in a season but he still has pop in his bat; he produced a 22.5% line drive rate in 2017 and was at 26% in Low-A ball in ’16. Straw is a threat to hit .270-.300 as a big leaguer with the ability to steal 20+ bases as a full-time player but he’s probably best suited for a fourth-outfielder role. And he has a chance to be a very good one.
Now on to the new stuff:
First Taste of The Show: Josh James, RHP: A former 34th round pick, James saw his fastball velocity trend upward over the past year and so did his fortunes. He can now overpower hitters to make up for his modest command, and he’s also shown improvements in his secondary offerings. He may end up with three average-or-better offerings. James still has some detractors because of his iffy command/control but another strong season in 2019 will quiet talk of him ending up in the bullpen. He’s been mostly durable as a pro and could provide at least 150-160 innings during the coming season — much of which should come from the Astros rotation.
