Week 2 Mixed-League FAAB Estimates

Last season, I started collecting FAAB bids from the NFBC Main Event to help estimate the player costs. It’s time to start the 2019 estimates for week two. The process is far from perfect but it does provide a bidding guideline. I use the NFBC Main Event because it contains 37 15-team leagues but each individual league is going to have its own unique dynamics. Understanding and trackings the differences are key for each owner. Owners need to take these player guesstimates and see how they compare to their own league. It may seem like too much work but can really help to determine how much to spend.

In our book, The Process, Tanner Bell and I broke down the 2018 FAAB bidding in detail going over the various trends. We found that player bids fit into three types:

  1. Minimum bids: These are $1/$0 bids for players only the person bidding desires. Owners need to find the corresponding ownership rates and the bids which won these players and stick to it. So many dollars are wasted on early season overbids on players only one person needs to fill in for an injured player.
  2. Middle ground: I feel this area is where leagues are won and lost. Owners see players with new skills and/or playing time. The key with these players is to understand they can’t be had for $1 but an owner doesn’t need to drop >10% of their budget on them. It’s more of an art when bidding in this range.
  3. Wallet openers: These players are going to go from anywhere between 10% to 50% of a budget. Usually, these players are rookie call-ups or new closers. The key may not be winning the bid as much as setting a limit to not cripple your team in the future.

Here are this week’s estimated FAAB with the ownership percentages from CBSSportsline and bid estimates for the NFBC Main Event ($1000 Budget, low bid of $1). I use CBS’s ownership rates since they divide the ownership by weeks but also allow daily pickups. An early player demand rate can be seen from these daily pickups.

 

Week 2 FAAB Estimates for Hitters
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Kolten Wong 2B | STL 6% 15% 9% $34
Chad Pinder LF | OAK 11% 17% 6% $31
Tim Beckham SS | SEA 17% 53% 36% $146
Enrique Hernandez CF | LAD 15% 50% 35% $138
Brandon Lowe 2B | TB 20% 33% 13% $50
Greg Bird 1B | NYY 17% 27% 10% $41
Adam Frazier 2B | PIT 22% 25% 3% $33
Ryon Healy 1B | SEA 22% 33% 11% $46
Jung Ho Kang 3B | PIT 27% 40% 13% $55
Joc Pederson LF | LAD 27% 43% 16% $64
Austin Barnes C | LAD 31% 40% 9% $49
Jorge Alfaro C | MIA 29% 34% 5% $41.
Kole Calhoun RF | LAA 30% 34% 4% $40
Troy Tulowitzki SS | NYY 30% 40% 10% $51
Jonathan Lucroy C | LAA 32% 35% 3% $40
Niko Goodrum 2B | DET 37% 54% 17% $79
Adam Jones CF | ARI 36% 42% 6% $48
Fernando Tatis SS | SD 56% 88% 32% $184

 

Week 2 FAAB Estimates for Pitcher
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Taylor Rogers RP | MIN 5% 14% 9% $51
Matt Shoemaker SP | TOR 6% 13% 7% $27
Bryse Wilson RP | ATL 8% 20% 12% $31
Greg Holland RP | ARI 14% 46% 32% $133
Eric Lauer SP | SD 14% 57% 43% $98
Jordan Zimmermann SP | DET 9% 18% 9% $28
Pablo Lopez SP | MIA 12% 32% 20% $41
Wily Peralta RP | KC 14% 20% 6% $49
Frankie Montas SP | OAK 10% 20% 10% $29
Jeremy Jeffress RP | MIL 16% 24% 8% $52
Dakota Hudson RP | STL 21% 39% 18% $40
Domingo German SP | NYY 27% 42% 15% $37
Kyle Wright RP | ATL 24% 37% 13% $34
Caleb Smith SP | MIA 26% 38% 12% $33
Wade Miley SP | HOU 29% 40% 11% $33
Trevor Richards SP | MIA 32% 54% 22% $49
Matthew Boyd SP | DET 30% 38% 8% $31
Matt Harvey SP | LAA 35% 44% 9% $33
Freddy Peralta SP | MIL 37% 81% 44% $110
Jake Junis SP | KC 38% 49% 11% $35
Brandon Woodruff RP | MIL 39% 63% 24% $56
David Hernandez RP | CIN 2% 3% 1% $25
Cory Gearrin RP | SEA 1% 1% 0% $25
Blake Parker RP | MIN 11% 14% 3% $26

Thoughts:

  • My FAAB formula has the minimum bid this week at $25 dollars. I know bids can be lower, but teams historically have spent a few more dollars early to get their guy. Last year, over two-thirds of the week-two bids were over $10. The above players are in demand and will not be won for a minimum this week.
  • There could be several wallet openers this week if the players slipped through the cracks and are available (Holland, Peralta, Lauer, Tatis, Beckham, Hernandez). The surprise jump for me is Eric Lauer. While I picked him up in several places as a streaming option, he now has some real trade value with his dominating win.
  • In leagues where Tatis is available, I’d not be surprised at all if he goes for 50% of total FAAB. Personally, I’d max out around 20% to 25%.
  • I added a few closer options, especially with the Hunter Strickland injury. The one arm I’m a little surprised is so low is Blake Parker. He may be Minnesota’s closer and only has a 14% ownership rate. Last week in Tout Wars, I pegged him as Wallet Opener and spent over $100 in FAAB on him. The next highest bid was $37. I should have used my own work to limit my bid and not waste the $70 in FAAB.
  • For reference, here are players picked up the most last season along with the average bids.
2018 Week 2 FAAB Bids
Name Count Avg Bid
Keynan Middleton 30 $70
Hunter Strickland 26 $389
Jordan Zimmermann 22 $31
Martin Maldonado 20 $11
Miguel Andujar 20 $94
Tyler Austin 20 $39
Francisco Cervelli 20 $20
Caleb Smith 15 $23
Ty Blach 15 $27
Joey Lucchesi 15 $30
Brian Anderson 15 $30
Preston Tucker 14 $15
Jon Jay 14 $13
Matt Duffy 14 $28
Nick Markakis 13 $18
Nick Ahmed 13 $16
Brian Johnson 12 $9
Darren O’Day 12 $30
Matthew Boyd 11 $17
Homer Bailey 10 $30
Caleb Joseph 10 $3
Jason Castro 10 $15
Jacoby Ellsbury 10 $19
Adam Frazier 9 $17
Derek Dietrich 9 $37
Kevin Jepsen 9 $6
Ben Lively 8 $12
Yan Gomes 8 $20
Tony Watson 8 $8
Jason Heyward 8 $10
Jaime Garcia 8 $12
Clayton Richard 8 $16
Jake Marisnick 8 $26
Francisco Liriano 8 $14
Jim Johnson 8 $20
Adrian Gonzalez 8 $17
Brad Miller 7 $27
Josh Tomlin 7 $15
Dansby Swanson 6 $21
Kevin Plawecki 6 $12
Andrew Triggs 6 $15
JC Ramirez 6 $12
Andrew Knapp 6 $5
Bryan Mitchell 5 $14
Matt Joyce 5 $13
Amir Garrett 5 $18
Chance Sisco 5 $30
Dillon Peters 5 $19
Kurt Suzuki 5 $19
Seth Lugo 5 $8
Doug Fister 5 $8

We hoped you liked reading Week 2 Mixed-League FAAB Estimates by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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pbarrese13
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pbarrese13

This is awesome thanks Jeff