The FAAB bids this past week at the NFBC’s Main Event mirrored the regular season, almost dead. Even so, I’m back for another week of estimates for the upcoming bidding cycle.
First off, here is a snapshot of last week’s results.
My forward looking FAAB projections got murdered this week
Name: Proj, Actual
Mejia: $19, $17
Voit: $61, $12
O'Hearn: $10, $7
Alcantara: $13, $7
Wainwright: $25, $6
Shoemaker: $15, $5
Valdez: $24, $4https://t.co/9oSIMQLCQo
I need to dive in and do some late season adjustments
— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) September 11, 2018
On average, the bids were significantly higher than expected except with some rookie call-ups. I went back to the drawing board and completely reworked my formulas with some historically acceptable results.
My current quandary is making the estimates more usable. Before next season, I can reexamine the information with fresh eyes and possibly explore other options.
The new projection formula lowers many of the estimates into the $1 range. These are acceptable values with just a few dollars left and fewer teams competing.
Here are this week’s estimated FAAB with the ownership percentages from CBSSportsline and bid estimates for NFBC Main Event ($1000 Budget, low bid of $1).
|Name||Previous Ownership%||Current Ownership%||Change%||Cost|
|Wade Miley SP | MIL||30%||42%||12%||$3|
|Jake Junis SP | KC||62%||73%||11%||$12|
|Adalberto Mondesi 2B | KC||33%||43%||10%||$2|
|Brad Keller SP | KC||35%||45%||10%||$2|
|Luke Voit 1B | NYY||31%||40%||9%||$20|
|Framber Valdez RP | HOU||16%||25%||9%||$9|
|Felix Pena RP | LAA||11%||20%||9%||$1|
|Jose Urena SP | MIA||23%||32%||9%||$1|
|Carlos Martinez SP | STL||71%||79%||8%||$13|
|Kevin Kiermaier CF | TB||19%||27%||8%||$9|
|Greg Holland RP | WAS||13%||16%||3%||$1|
|Ryan O’Hearn 1B | KC||12%||15%||3%||$1|
|David Fletcher SS | LAA||9%||13%||4%||$1|
|Yoshihisa Hirano RP | ARI||8%||12%||4%||$1|
|Adam Frazier LF | PIT||8%||11%||3%||$1|
|Jorge Lopez RP | KC||4%||10%||6%||$1|
|Tommy Hunter RP | PHI||3%||6%||3%||$1|
|Rowdy Tellez 1B | TOR||3%||5%||2%||$1|
|Ji-Man Choi 1B | TB||2%||10%||8%||$2|
|Ty Buttrey RP | LAA||1%||3%||2%||$1|
The biggest item I’ve noticed examining the list was the low bids on closers (Hirano, Hunter, Holland, and Buttrey). I rechecked my math and the “error” is with the CBS ownership rates. The four saw their ownership rates vary by only 2% to 4%. Earlier in the season, a new closer may see a 50% jump. Just a few teams care right now.
On the same note, the biggest mover was Miley with only a 12% move. Again, that value is extremely low compared to earlier in the season.
Overall, the results will hopefully be better but the low late-season activity is messing with my calculations. I need to see how to adjust the final two weeks of data to help with next season. Until then, happy fishing.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.