4/4/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• DFS recap

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4/4/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

CALL YOUR SHOT

• Original Tweet
• Previous episodes

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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The Roto Riteup is here for ALL the pitcher home runs!

Great reax. RT @CauldronICYMI: Bartolo Colon hit a home run. Yes, that Bartolo Colon. pic.twitter.com/xOy3ERU6Ej

— Sarah Spain (@SarahSpain) May 8, 2016

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Today finishes my examination of starting pitcher pitch mix and velocity from the first two days of the month. Some of the starters overlap from my first article and I used their combined numbers.

My goal in examining these starters is to find ones who have changed over the offseason. As owners, we may need to immediately adjust our projections. Also, to save space, when I mention a pitch changes a certain percentage, I mean percentage points (ex. up 10% = up 10% points or from 12% to 22%).

April 1st

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When you play a lot of leagues, things start to blend and you might forget who you have and where you have them. For the last several years, I’ve put together my portfolio to keep track of who I have in my leagues. Over the last few years, I’ve scaled back my league load. Now when I say this number, some of you will still faint, but I promise it’s a major cutback. There are 13 leagues accounted for in my portfolio and only 10 of those require regular work (daily/weekly lineups and FAAB). I think the first time I made a portfolio, it was for 20 leagues.

One aspect to remember when doing this exercise is that the top guys are never going to be the studs from the first couple of rounds unless you get lucky enough to pick in nearly the same spot throughout the leagues. Drafts start to open up after pick 75 so that’s often when you start accumulating your multiple shares of players, often because you comfortable taking them ahead of their ADP since you believe in them. This is even more true of pitching specifically.

That said, my top two guys are hitters this year!

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When you thought your team couldn’t get any more injured and then the Fantasy Gods look at you like:

Hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii! pic.twitter.com/BTYIAOULZe

— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) April 3, 2019

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A few days ago, I examined the pitch mix and velocity for all the Opening Day starts. Today, I tried to catch up but failed. I just couldn’t examine another 30 pitchers. Tomorrow, I’m going to try my hardest to give a glimpse at everyone remaining.

My goal in examining these starters is to find ones who have changed over the offseason. As owners, we may need to immediately adjust our projections. Since there is a ton to get through, here are the daily starters ordered by fastball velocity change. Also, to save space, when I mention a pitch changes a certain percentage, I mean percentage points (ex. up 10% = up 10% points).

March 29th

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Each week (on Monday or Tuesday depending on my schedule) I’m going to talk about something from the previous week in a pack of 10. This week we’re only working with four games, but I still found 10 unexpected gems worthy of some attention.

Trevor Williams | PIT at CIN: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 13% SwStr

I’m not going to overreact after the one start, but another gem gives him a 2.02 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his last 18 starts, spanning 102.7 innings. He has just a 12% K-BB rate in that time which fuels the skepticism and most relievers can’t sustain an 87% LOB rate, let alone starters. I’m reluctant to think I got it wrong on Williams just because he picked up where his 2018 left off. Maybe he’s more of a true talent 3.75 ERA than the 4.00-4.20ish level I suggested during his big run.

He gets Cincy at home in his next start, I’d use him for that in most formats where streaming is viable.

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Fantasy baseball rosters are littered with the corpses of hot start mirages turned albatrosses. Chris Shelton, Matt Moore, Yasmany Tomas . . . all have teased early and faded late, taking many a fantasy season with them. Let’s take a look at some fast starters and see if any late-March stars might catch you some lightning in a bottle.

Kolten Wong

Aren’t tiny samples the best? Through the end of March 31 – that’s fifteen plate appearances – the Cardinals second sacker was hitting .571/.600/1.071, good for a .688 wOBA and 288 wRC+. That seems pretty good, right? Wong probably went undrafted in your league after posting just a 98 wRC+ last year with 15 HR+SB, and production like that won’t get it done at a position as deep as second base.

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Man, I thought I missed baseball…

My bench in the Main Event is straight 🔥 pic.twitter.com/E1oPPUO66X

— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) April 1, 2019

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