Monday Night Fantasy Chat by Jeff Zimmerman December 9, 2019 8:01 Jeff Zimmerman: I’ll go ahead and start. 8:01 Beff jrdrich: Chance mcmahon can breakout w regular pt this year? .280/30/90? 8:02 Jeff Zimmerman: He’ll need regular playing time and I’d never bet on that. 8:03 Jeff Zimmerman: And if he hits the line you posted, he’ll probably be unplayable on the road. I think Arenado, Story, and Blackmon are the only hitters good enough to play on the road. 8:03 Baxter: 10 team roto dynasty. Would you accept Dealing Harper in return for Kepler + one of the following: wheeler, gray, Morton, McNeil, kiriloff? 8:04 Jeff Zimmerman: To win this year, sure for Morton. I’d keep Harper. 8:05 PB: Who do you think has the best chance of positive return on value: Danny Santana, Domingo Santana, Mazara, or Tauchman? 8:05 Jeff Zimmerman: Domingo Santana. His price will be nothing and could be OK 8:06 Jim Leyland Palmer: Keep 5 Forever (10 teams, 5×5 categories, 2 UTIL spots), I have these 5 locked in: Bellinger (1B/OF), Albies (2B), Bregman (3B, SS), Vlad (3B), Jram (will lose 2B eligibility with latest news, 3B only). Should I consider moving one of my 3B out for a comparable player at a different position? Or would you not worry about the redundancy? 8:07 Jeff Zimmerman: You could if someone else is in the same boat. Maybe just post in the league message board and someone else may be loaded at other positions. 8:07 The Batman: Think Lynn or Ryu can perform close to 2019 numbers? 8:08 Jeff Zimmerman: Yes. They have before but health has been the issue. 8:08 Patriots Spy Team: Khris Davis is a top ___ player at end of 2020? 8:08 Jeff Zimmerman: 100 8:09 Jeet: I need 5 keepers for next season. Am I crazy to keep Eloy over Villar? My other keepers are Jose Ramirez, Springer, Ketel, and Albies. I dont know if I buy into Villar especially if theres no juiced ball next season. Thanks! 8:09 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d drop Ketel before Villar and it’s not close 8:09 Jeet: Playing my first 15 team, 50 players draft and hold. Any tips on draft strategy? 8:11 Jeff Zimmerman: Get as many multiposition players as you can. Also, get people playing instead of rookies. Don’t speculate on closers. Get known closers and good closers (project ERA under 3.00) and stop. 8:11 Pedro Cabeza: In 4×4 Otto, guys are wearing me out with offers, crappy mostly, for a $22 Soto. I think he is worth keeping, even with allocation, for two or three more years. Am I sane or nuts? 8:11 Jeff Zimmerman: You’re fine keeping him. 8:12 Jon: Revisiting keepers for next year and have a bit of a logjam. Pick two: kluber, Bauer, sale, starling marte, joeram, albies? Dont need to list all my other keepers but do Have degrom as an auto keep on pitching. Thanks! 8:13 Jeff Zimmerman: Jose Ramirez and Sale. Both could be the best player next season. 8:13 Jon: Any strong opinions on the first year player drafts this offseason? Thinking I’ll be aggressive on the international signings like Dominguez, puasson, peña, etc 8:14 Jeff Zimmerman: Go for a prospect hitter (or trade out of the spot) but with the other picks, don’t ignore the players coming over from Korea and Japan. They can help your team this year. 8:14 Thank you for the chat!: When do you think Luis Robert is up this season? 8:15 Jeff Zimmerman: Probably the first home series after the team games a year of control 8:15 TMoney: So, who do my Reds end up with?? One more “big” name? or smaller incremental moves? Who could be surprisingly traded by Cincy? (is that three questions?) 8:16 Jeff Zimmerman: I could see them sign or trade for a pitcher. I like the idea of Keuchel (sp?) going there 8:16 Michael: Jeff! Great to have you back. I’ll need to take off when the wife says it’s time for His Dark Materials, but looking forward to all the chat I can stick around for. – Michael 8:16 Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks for setting your priorities. 8:17 Kelly: Read your book again. Great again. Curious about how often you adjust Steamer projections to come up with your $ values? Do you need a good reason before you do it? Or do you not use Steamer? 8:18 Jeff Zimmerman: I use a combo of several projections. Jared just makes Steamer available to us as soon as the season ends. I add in Zips, Zola’s, the Bat, and others. 8:18 Dom: Do you think Jonathan Schoop is likely to find a role somewhere? How many plate appearances would you ballpark him for? 8:19 Jeff Zimmerman: I doubt he’ll find a good spot but could. 8:19 Jeff Zimmerman: I expect more demand for Hernandez 8:19 Thank you for the chat!: How do you see the extra roster spot impacting pitcher usage? Top end SP innings more valuable? Guessing the value gets even more spread in the middle between generic starters/middle inning guys… 8:20 Jeff Zimmerman: It’ll be interesting since pitchers now have to go 3 batters unless the inning ends. 8:21 Jeff Zimmerman: Also, there is the 15 day IL 8:21 Jeff Zimmerman: I think one factor will dominate the usage but I’m not sure which one. 8:21 Getting to Second Base: Hi Jeff – Wondering your thoughts on a couple of keystone guys, Biggio and Arraez. General thoughts would be great, but if specific questions better . . . Do you think Biggio substantially cuts down on his K-rates or more likely stays above say 25%, and do you think he stays at 2B long-term or moves positions? And do you think Arraez remains an elite OBP guy for years to come? 8:22 Jeff Zimmerman: I think the strikeouts will stay with Biggio. Also, he may have some platoon issues. 8:24 Jeff Zimmerman: As for Arraez, I don’t think he’ll be as elite. I think pitchers are just going to pound the strike zone and make him beat them with his bat. 8:24 Baseball Pants: what weekly IP minimum range is best km 8:25 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m big on a low number. Maybe 12 to 15. Some like way more. 8:25 Purd: What do you see from Yaz this year in SF? 2-win season in 2019 with a 121 wRC+, the job’s gotta at least be his to lose, yeah? 8:25 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m all in. The playing time will be there as long as he hits even close to league average. 8:26 Thank you for the chat!: Does Patrick Sandoval have the potential to be a mid rotation guy this season? Do you see him making the starting rotation? 8:27 Jeff Zimmerman: I think he makes the rotation right now but he needs to take some step forward to move up. The easiest would be to quit walking everyone. 8:27 EWC: Will Khris Davis have regular playing time this year, do you think? 8:27 Jeff Zimmerman: He’ll start with it … if healthy. 8:27 Babyfarts: I have May/Urias/Puk/Manning and only 2 keeper spots left? Who makes the most sense? I like Urias personally but can be easily talked out of it. 8:28 Jeff Zimmerman: which Urias? 8:28 Michael: Thoughts on the sustainability of Gio Urshela’s breakout? 8:28 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not high, especially if Andujar starts out hot. Urshela can’t afford to struggle. 8:29 Billy Beane: When will the new DRS go live on FG? 8:29 Jeff Zimmerman: No idea. That decision is above my pay grade. 8:29 Yetiman: Who are your favorite buy backs from last years under performers 8:30 Jeff Zimmerman: Khris Davis 8:30 Jeff Zimmerman: Mike Trout 8:30 Jeff Zimmerman: Severino 8:30 Antonio: Jeff, there are two owners in my league (24 teams) that I just don’t like dealing with. Everyone else is great, really active and knowledgeable, but these two are always trying to justify their crazy offers and I can’t see us ever getting a deal done. Any strategies for breaking through, or should I just leave them be and settle for trading with the other 21 teams? 8:32 Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t waste your time with them. I have a league where in the trade block I reminded a person to not trade with me. The offers were pure shit. 8:32 Babyfarts: Bryant is my 3rd basemen for a keeper league. Would you trade him with 3 players I cannot keep for Arenado? Feel like the other team would be getting a steal but they are of no use to me (Hand/Rogers/McCutchen). 8:33 Jeff Zimmerman: If you can’t use them, make the trade if your team improves. 8:33 🙂: would you mind sharing 1 player that you’re targeting after pick 300 in 2020? 8:33 Jeff Zimmerman: I just went to the NFBC and there would be ton: 8:34 Jeff Zimmerman: Pineda at 308 8:34 Jeff Zimmerman: Santander at 324 8:35 Jeff Zimmerman: Kyle Lewis at 358 !!!! 8:35 Jeff Zimmerman: Tauchman at 373 8:35 Jeff Zimmerman: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball 8:35 Craig: Speaking of Yankees breakouts, will Domingo German ever pitch in the majors again? 8:36 Jeff Zimmerman: Yep unless there is news he killed someone 8:36 Babyfarts: Julio Urias 8:37 Nicklaus: Great job on the new edition of The Process, new information was certainly worth the re-buy. 8:37 Jeff Zimmerman: From the previous question. Urias and Puk but the second pitcher is tough to decide on. 8:37 Jeff Zimmerman: Oops … fast fingers 8:37 Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks, I already have some ideas for the next edition. 8:38 Nicklaus: When adjusting talent projection rates for runs and RBI, what factors are you looking at for determining whether an adjustment should be made and if so, by how much, say compared to what Steamer is projecting per-PA? 8:38 Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t 8:38 Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve tried and projection systems beat me. 8:39 Jeff Zimmerman: If Steamer is from FG, the batting order is taken into account and I let the computers decide. 8:39 Brian: Luis Castillo safe now? 8:40 Jeff Zimmerman: No … he’s a pitcher in Cincinnati’s small park. 8:40 Brian: What’s your take on Goldschmidt for next year? 8:41 Jeff Zimmerman: He had a typical season but without the steals. I expect more of the same. 8:41 Brian: Manny Machado due for a bounce back? How about Beni? 8:41 Jeff Zimmerman: I have more faith in Machado but I’m not counting on it. I’ll pay for 2019 8:41 Nick: How do you feel about Kopech going into the start of the season? Is he more of a late round flyer guy or should we have more confidence in him ending up as a staple of the rotation? 8:42 Jeff Zimmerman: He’s in the flyer range. I’m not counting on anything from him. 8:42 Brian: Do we change our drafting patterns for the power surge, or will it go away? 8:44 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m only doing one thing, giving hitters a bonus if they hit for power in 2016 or 2018 since they are more likely to keep their power if the ball reverts back. 8:44 Michael: Hey, Jeff! You’re not going to believe this, but the wife says it’s already time to watch His Dark Materials. Really prefer your chats, but what are you gonna do, you know? Hope you’ll be back soon, this was fun. – Michael 8:44 Jeff Zimmerman: Bye 8:46 Lessons Learned: Were there any lessons you learned in 2019 that you’ll be applying this year in terms of draft, FAAB, talent identification, etc? 8:46 Jeff Zimmerman: I wrote this up and I’m trying to find it 8:48 Jeff Zimmerman: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/my-final-2019-results-it-could-have-been… 8:48 Royals SBs: How concerned are you that Mondesi and the Royals will stop running with Matheny there? 8:49 Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, wrote that up: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/does-mike-matheny-hate-stolen-bases/ 8:49 Wisco: Who do you like between castenellos or Ozuna if you had to choose now?? Ozuna runs more, but hard to count on that if he doesn’t have a team currently. 8:49 Jeff Zimmerman: Ozuna for now 8:50 Indians Fan: Scoresheet keeper league. Looking to trade excess outfielder for starting pitching. My prime trade candidates are Eddie Rosario or Andrew Benintendi. Looking at pitchers like Edwardo Rodrigues, Seam Manaea or James Paxton. How would you rate their relative values? Thanks. 8:50 Jeff Zimmerman: Paxton ……………Rodriguez …….Manaea 8:50 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not a fan at all of Manaea 8:51 Da Locomotives: In drafts How much do you lean on the Auction Calculator vs other things or analysis? what are those other analysis you use? 8:51 Jeff Zimmerman: I helped write over 300 pages on my Process: https://www.thefantasybaseballprocess.com/ 8:52 Jeff Zimmerman: I only use the auction calculator for now and will move to my own values later. I’m a believer in SGP to evaluate players. 8:52 Yetiman: how are you approaching Muncy? Was awesome last year but it took some time (and I think injuries) for him to get PAs. Has he earned PAs or will the dodgers rest him a lot 8:53 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m all in at his current price. He came up in the last Launch Angle Pod. Rob Silver may like him more than me 8:54 Da Locomotives: In a new 5×5 12-team H2H. Max 5 moves/week. Weekly IP Minimum is 5. Is it too hard to get Saves to go 100% RP route (Categories: W/Ks/Saves/Whip/Era) 8:55 Jeff Zimmerman: Not anymore. There are so many shared situations. The one item to remember is to shove ERA and WHIP. If you are speculating on Saves, do it will good pitchers 8:55 Cream: When looking for steals and overall value of a middle infielder, would you prefer Garrett Hampson with playing time uncertainty or Tommy Edman, who only has a partial season in the bigs? 8:56 Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t like either of these situations. The Cardinals can’t keep a MI for what seems more than a year. And Hampson is in the Colorado playing time nightmare. 8:57 Nolan: Lamet or Paddack for 2020 only? 8:57 Jeff Zimmerman: Paddack 8:57 Chowda: Bigger offensive 2020, Luis Urias or Kieboom? 8:57 Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t like either but would start with Urias but would move on if he hints at struggling 8:59 Jeff Zimmerman: That looks like it for the evening. I’m going to try to keep the chat a more regular feature.