Risk, Uncertainty, and Fantasy Baseball

Gred Gigerenzer (yes that’s his real name) has been a leading advocate on how to correctly measure and articulate risk. I’d highly recommend his book Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions, but today, I’m going to focus on some passages from another book of his, Calculated Risk, which focuses on risks in the medical profession. Some of the passages seem to resonate with me about the fantasy expert community, especially this question: what should be the intent and expectations of touts?

One point Gigerenzer hopes to get across is the difference between Risk and Uncertainty. For him, Risk is measurable such as pitcher X as a 40% chance of going on the IL based on his age and past injury history. Uncertainty involves values that can’t be (or aren’t) measured like player Y is going through a divorce so his production is down.

When measurable factors are used to find Risk, an outcome range is always the answer. Not either-or. The problem is that people, patients, or fantasy sport participants, want help to make a choice and remove all the Risks and Uncertainties.

As stated in the book:

A physician who removes anxiety away from the patient is a good doctor. One as to do something; one cannot do nothing; the patient would be disappointed or even angry. Most prescriptions have no proven effect, but when the patient applies the ointment, the doctor, the patient, and the pharmaceutical company are happy.

Replace fantasy ‘analyst’ for ‘physician’ and ‘advice’ with ‘prescription’ and the points perfectly line up. Analysts provide quick precise help. They aren’t there to say that player X has a 37% chance of exceeding his cost, a 25% chance of being within $5, a 28% chance of not meeting expectations, and a 10% chance of being hot garbage. People just want to know if the player is worth picking up as an injury replacement.

It is not money the drives physicians — it is the salvation. The physician as a hero. Heroism is self-deception and the greatest obstacle towards progress.

The hero comp is a little tough to swallow but the industry is full of egos, myself included. The first time I provided advice, written or out loud, it was a little scary. Someones going to take my advice and run with it. I am not saving lives but it didn’t mean I didn’t 100% believe in my answer. If I didn’t believe in the answer, how was the person I’m providing the advice to believe it?

In my last chat, I provided salvation by helping them out. It’s second-hand nature by now. Maybe it shouldn’t be.

Also, I catch myself on the Launch Angle Podcast feeling unsure and start flip-flopping around. So many times the answer is, “It depends on A, B, and C as long as X, Y, and Z don’t happen.” It ends up sounding like a huge nested IF…THEN… ELSE statement. Simply …

It’s hard to say “I don’t know.”

For me, it’s the toughest to provide no answer when face-to-face because I can see their hopes dashed and they go seeking someone else for immediate verification and satisfaction.

More often than not, not knowing is the correct stance for the expert, but no one wants an expert who doesn’t know what they are talking about. Many fantasy players are looking for affirmation of their pickup/trade they will move on to find someone who will provide that contentment.

Patients want to believe in a doctor who never errs, and doctors try to foster this illusion.

It’s a tight rope an analyst must walk to provide as many “right” answers as possible. Many times, the answer is a 50/50 tossup with both Risks and Uncertainties but a side needs to be taken.

It’s tough for some people to accept so many known or unknown variables. They want their 1.5% interest-bearing account instead of the ups-and-downs with a historical better return with the stock market. They want the safety of a 9-5 job in a major company over going out on their own for a higher income by starting a business. There is nothing wrong with this safe approach but fantasy baseball is not a game with anything close to a stable outcome. At any point, the best and most stable player in the league could be playing outfield in an interleague game, injure his hip, and no longer be free of Risk.

So fantasy players need to come to the realization that the answers they receive will either contain all the risks and uncertainties, some will get a quick no analysis answer from the gut, or most answers are somewhere in-between. Like the patients seeing a doctor, do both parties want to be done with the exchange and go on with their lives -or- do they want to get into a muddied up, but correct answer? Both parties need to try to understand what the other party wants. Quick-and-dirty or going the extra couple miles. They can help each other out by implying their intention that the decision is just a tie-breaker or deeper answer is wanted/needed.

I know I go too far vs. the simple answer depending on my mood. Is it the right way? Again depends. There is the right answer and the right answer for the person asking the question. Both are different and it’s tough to know when to use each.

 

The 2020 Edition of The Process is available in digital and paper format with several new studies and 2019 final standings from several league types.