… but not by much for teams I just owned …

My 2019 fantasy season did not live up to my standards with most of the struggles being self-inflicted. Here are some overarching themes I spotted with each league plus some additional points at the end.

Horrible FAAB management

I ran out of money in almost every league and spent too much FAAB on worthless assets. Looking back over the leagues, the root cause was chasing week-only plays. From my work writing “The Process”, I found out how valuable it is to grind out each week. Additionally, I ran the weekly FAAB projections here so I knew around what it would take to get each. Initially, I got the players and but dropped them a week or two later for better options with little to show for the FAAB spent

I need to set a FAAB limit for chasing week-only plays and just accept it’s fine to miss out on a few players. A week’s advantage is worth the same in week 1 or the final week. The rest of my FAAB can be used for chasing long term improvements. Some players may straddle the long-term and weekly play so the FAAB may come from both the weekly and long term pools. I need to have a plan and stick to it.
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I’ve screwed up. A lot. A few years back, I created a pitching metric called pERA which took each individual pitch’s results (swinging-strike and groundball rate) and combined them into one metric. The problem was that I wrote the article in 2016 and used a formula I created back in 2015 with 2002-2015 data. The juiced ball arrived and I never adjusted the formula for the change. Oopsy.

I felt a little sick when it finally dawned on me that the formula needed updating and ma initial findings are available in this Twitter thread.

I've invested too much time this morning looking into GB%, ERA, and ERA estimators. Two conclusions:

1. Happy Fun Ball has everything messed up. Don't assume any previous assumptions are true.
2. Groundball pitchers are ruling the day.

1/6

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 16, 2019

It finally dawned on me that the formula I was using to evaluate pitchers was off. With strikeouts and walks being equal, groundball pitchers outperform flyball pitchers. With a deadened ball, a high flyball rate meant most flyballs would go for easy outs. Not any more. Now those flyballs go for home runs. It’s time for a little math to show the change.
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Yesterday I looked at the National League players who could see their 2020 draft price jump after a strong playoff run. Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers are already eliminated after losing the wildcard game in heartbreaking fashion so his draft price won’t get out of control based on just four strong innings, but he did earn some new believers last night.

Here is a candidate from each AL playoff team who could greatly improve their draft cost with a big October.

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson

Before needing surgery to remove his hamate bone following the Japan series, Olson was carrying a 106 ADP, regularly going within the top 100. Knowing he was slated to miss a month, his price tanked especially because hamate surgery has always been a major concern for a player’s power even when they return. Olson bucked that trend, smacking 36 home runs in 541 PA from May 7th on and his early ADP is actually now higher than last year’s pre-injury mark at 100th in the Too Early Mocks (TEMs). That could skyrocket with a big October and I think he could peak somewhere in the 60-70 range.

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The fantasy community gets a little bit of a breather during the playoffs. Unless you’re one of those playing a postseason contest, this is the first baseball you can just sit back and watch in quite a while. Of course, we’re always analyzing and assessing players. Every October there is a player or a few players who do so well in the playoffs that they push their draft price up for the following spring.

Walker Buehler was the standout Playoff Tax player last year and it wasn’t even all success driven. His response to a second inning blowup in Game 3 of the LDS was really impressive. He followed it up with three perfect innings, highlighting the kind of talent and mettle in the 23-year old righty. He then put up a 2.41 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 22 Ks and 1 BB in his remaining three playoff starts (18.7 IP). He was already going to be sought after in drafts, but by the end of the 2018 postseason, he ascended into the top 12-15 of starters after closing the regular season around 20th. He wasn’t the only one to go off in the playoffs and increase his draft cost, but he was the most notable.

Here is a candidate from each NL playoff team (AL tomorrow) who could greatly improve their draft cost with a big October.

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While the 2019 season is still semi-fresh in everyone’s mind, I have one simple request. Which hitters played through an injury instead of going on the Injured List this past season?

I’ve collected the players for the past couple of seasons (2017 and 2018). It’s time to compile the 2019 list even though the effects on a projection may be limited. Here are the players I have so far.

Name: Injury (link)

• Nolan Arenado: Toe injury (link)
• Javier Báez: Bruised heal limited his production, (link)
• Cody Bellinger: Bum shoulder (link)
• David Bote: Broken toe (link)
• Khris Bryant: Knee issues (link)
• Lorenzo Cain: Not batting leadoff until wrist healthy (link)
• Matt Chapman: Ankle/knee issues (link)
• C.J. Cron: Thumb (link)
• Nelson Cruz: Wrist? (link)
• Khris Davis: Hip bothered him (link)
• Daniel Descalso: Ankle (link)
• Freddie Freeman: Bone spur in elbow (link)
• Keston Hiura: Hamstring (link)
• Rhys Hoskins: Hand (link)
• Aaron Judge: Oblique (link)
• Max Kepler: Knee (link)
• Ramón Laureano: Shin (link)
• Yadier Molina: Finger (link)
• Mike Moustakas: Fractured finger (link)
• Daniel Murphy: Finger (link)
• Brandon Nimmo: Neck (link)
• Marcell Ozuna: Shoulder not 100% (link)
• Tommy Pham: Hand (link)
• Roberto Pérez: Ankle (link)
• Gregory Polanco: Shoulder (link)
• Hunter Renfroe: Ankle and elbow (link)
• Anthony Rizzo: Sprained ankle (link)
• Justin Smoak: Quad (link)
• Domingo Santana: Inflamed elbow (link)
• Mike Trout: Foot (link)
• Trea Turner: Finger (link)
• Alex Verdugo: Back issues (link)
• Luke Voit: Hernia (link)

Late adds

Marwin Gonzalez (link)

If anyone knows of anyone I missed, please say so in the comments with a link to the source. I not looking for guess but the player or his team saying he’s hurt. Thanks for the help.

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9/30/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host

POSITIONAL POST MORTEMS

Razzball Player Rater (type C or 1B into the POS field after it loads)

•  CATCHER
  • Kurt Suzuki (3:40)
  • The Studs – J.T. Realmuto, Gary Sánchez, Yasmani Grandal, Willson Contreras, Wilson Ramos (4:24)
  • Mitch Garver (5:40)
  • Christian Vazquez (7:15)
  • James McCann (9:44)
  • Omar Narváez (11:40)
  • Travis d’Arnaud (14:58)
  • Jorge Alfaro (19:43)
  • Roberto Pérez (24:10)

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To begin my 2020 preseason, the elephant needs to be addressed, “What to do about projecting with MLB’s juiced baseball (i.e. Happy Fun Ball).

Is Freddy Galvis going to continue to jack 20+ home runs or will he maxing out at dozen or so? Every projection can’t be a Choose Your Own Adventure story. If the ball is still juiced, he’ll do X, if not juiced, he’ll do Y. In my analysis, I’ll pick a lane.

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9/27/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host/Producer

STUDS SINCE AUGUST 1ST:

• Sean Manaea
• Mike Foltynewicz
• Dakota Hudson

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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate). I’ve listed the players in order of interest. Read the rest of this entry »