After Dark Fantasy Chat by Jeff Zimmerman September 30, 2019 8:01 Jeff Zimmerman: So, I will be moving my fantasy chat from Sunday night to a weeknight. The exact night has not been set yet. 8:01 Jeff Zimmerman: I have to move around to off days during the playoffs 8:01 Kris Bryant: Who are 3 teams who want to trade for me? 8:02 Jeff Zimmerman: No one comes to mind. Teams may not give up much for him. 8:02 Midwestern: I’m in a keeper league 13 teams, 12 keepers each. Would you rather have Acuna for 4 years at $23 per, or wander Franco for 6 years, first 2 at $3 and last 4 at $23 (once he hits the majors)? I’m leaning strongly towards Acuna but how close is a deal like this? 8:03 Jeff Zimmerman: Acuna and it’s not even close. 8:03 $11 Worth of Taco Bell: Is this the week I finally blow out my FAAB? 8:03 Jeff Zimmerman: You better save some for later 8:04 Royce Lewis: I see I’m ranked as the no. 2 overall prospect. Why is that and should I expect that to change? 8:04 Jeff Zimmerman: Lots of players graduated and maybe not. 8:04 Brad: When is Swydan coming back? 8:04 Jeff Zimmerman: I should ask if he’ll do a chat while running his book store. 8:05 AL wild card game atendee: Is luzardo better than you thought? Not for me but better than your guys 55 FV rating, what do you think (his fastball avgs About 2350 RPM) 8:05 Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t do the prospect rankings but a 55 is fine for now until he can show he can stay healthy. 8:06 Bring Back Jeff: h2h points league: Xander or Tatis next year? 8:06 Jeff Zimmerman: This is close 8:07 Jeff Zimmerman: Just next year and points, Xander 8:07 Matt: Can only keep 5, 10 team HtH 6×6 with OPS, QS and WHIP…Alonso, Machado, Rendon, Acuna, Alvarez, Scherzer, Buehler. Thanks! 8:07 Jeff Zimmerman: Acuna, Scherzer are easy 8:08 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d then o Buehler, Alvarez, Alonso 8:08 CC: Thanks for all the help last few weeks! Won a nail biter yesterday. Can’t stop checking the waiver wire today before forgetting years done xD 8:09 Jeff Zimmerman: It was so nice not doing FAAB this week. 8:09 Jeff Zimmerman: Or setting lineups 8:09 Pat’s Bat: If not Sunday then may I suggest Thursday? Waivers bids in many leagues are made Thursday and Sunday night’s. 8:10 Jeff Zimmerman: It’ll be Sunday in-season. My nights will be controlled by my kid’s activities and Monday is the best 8:11 Chucky: Is Stanton a keeper in a keep forever no contracts, over the likes of Kepler and /or Luis Robert? 8:11 Jeff Zimmerman: Yes on Kepler. For Roberts … I might go with Roberts. He is so good. 8:12 Jeff Zimmerman: It’s Stanton or Roberts 8:12 Pat’s Bat: What peripheral stats are you looking at to differentiate between the near aces and reliable starters (top 20 to 50 SP.) 8:13 Jeff Zimmerman: IP/GS, few pitchers go late into games. 8:13 Jeff Zimmerman: For those top-20, they need to be going at least 6 to 7 innings each start 8:13 Angus Mac: Is Zac Gallen someone that can be trusted in the future or will the walk rate and his stuff come back to bite him? 8:14 Jeff Zimmerman: He can’t be trusted for now but I’d want him on my team. 8:15 Jeff Zimmerman: Those 10K/9 are playable and if the walks come down, he could be a nice 4th starter 8:15 Pat’s Bat: Is Miguel Sano a top 10 3b next year? 8:15 Jeff Zimmerman: Let’s look 8:16 Jeff Zimmerman: https://www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspx?type=3B&proj=2019&pos=2,1,1… 8:17 Jeff Zimmerman: He was in the 15 to 25 range this year. I’d expect him to be back there. 8:18 Guest: Tommy Edman’s ADP will be _________. 8:18 Jeff Zimmerman: It was 340 in the early mocks: https://smadaplaysfantasy.com/2EarlyMocks2019/ 8:19 Jeff Zimmerman: I think he could easily be in the top-200 if playing time was guaranteed. 8:19 Kristina Robinson: Do you think I’m the next fast riser to ascend to the prospect elites? If not, who is your pick in 2020? 8:20 Jeff Zimmerman: I have not dug into prospects. I usually wait until after the fall league to see who is worth picking up in redrafts. 8:20 Prison Mike: What is Cavan Biggio going to do next year? 8:20 Jeff Zimmerman: Play for the Blue Jays 8:21 Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe go 20/20 with a .220 AVG. Drew Stubbs clone 8:21 Guest: Acuna 37 sbs, Yelich 30 sbs (and missed about a month). Trout 11 sbs. Do you pick either before Trout next yr? Everyone can HRs now. 8:22 Jeff Zimmerman: I did take Acuna first in one of the early mocks 8:22 Jeff Zimmerman: 1 SB = 3 HR in the rankings 8:23 Jeff Zimmerman: It was nice having a SB floor and getting the best players. 8:23 Chucky : Along a proceeding question, who you keeping between Sano and Matt Chappy? 8:23 Jeff Zimmerman: Chapman and it’s not close 8:24 Tom: Do you like Giolito to repeat (or improve upon) his breakout this year? 8:24 Jeff Zimmerman: I think it’ll be more of the 2H. Higher ERA from more homers. 8:24 Jeff Zimmerman: He just has to keep throwing strikes 8:24 CC: Better late round flyer next year – Ian happ or Brandon nimmo 8:25 Jeff Zimmerman: Nimmo. I’m not a fan of Happ at all. He can’t hit a baseball 8:25 Jack: How fubar’d is my S Gennett contract, signed when he was a 28 yr old stud with back to back 120+ wRc+ years… 8:25 Jeff Zimmerman: Tough to know right now but it doesn’t look good 8:25 JD: Lance Lynn a top 25 SP next year? How much regression? 8:27 Jeff Zimmerman: Not a ton. I could see a few more homers and the 16 Wins might be on the high side 8:27 Date Mike: Is Mark Canha gonna be a thing next year? 8:28 Jeff Zimmerman: I think so since he can now hit LHP. D is fine, especially for the corners. 8:28 Pat’s Bat: Is this year who Noah Syndergaard is or can he thrive with some changes (pitch selection, catcher, manager, non Mets team, etc.) 8:28 Jeff Zimmerman: I think it’s him. He’s been this way for three seasons. I don’t expect him to change now. 8:29 Agent Michael Scarn: Does DJ Lemahieu go back to a fringe fantasy starter if they change the ball back? 8:29 Jeff Zimmerman: No, as long as he plays every day on the Yankees. 8:29 Jeff Zimmerman: Playing time was an issue coming into this season. 8:30 Jeff Zimmerman: If he plays, the counting stats will be fine. 8:30 Brad: How did you do in nfbc this year and what do you think you need to do to be better in this format going forward? 8:31 Jeff Zimmerman: Not good at all, I was competiive in 2 for a while, but late injuries sank both 8:31 Jeff Zimmerman: I was horrible at FAABing. 8:31 Jeff Zimmerman: I added no one good 8:32 Jeff Zimmerman: I knew my auction team was going to be shit when I left the room with Rick Porcello as my #2 8:32 Chucky : Does Verlander rise to the level of trade him a year early better than a year too late? 8:33 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m in for 2020. I trust the Astros will keep him throwing. Even if he drops some, he’ll be better than most SPs 8:33 JJ: Outlook for Cease next year?? 8:33 Jeff Zimmerman: He’s a mess 8:34 Jeff Zimmerman: I had him in an AL keeper and dropped him to shore up my team late to finish in the money. 8:34 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d like to see some improvement 8:34 kingman: who do you like better for next year, G Hampson or O Mercado 8:35 Jeff Zimmerman: Mercado. I don’t trust the Rockies to play Hampson and I’m not sure Hampson is a good hitter 8:36 Jeff Zimmerman: Hampson is a career .700 OPS hitter as a Rockie. Not good 8:36 Nick: Who are you picks for comeback players of the year? And any thoughts for fantasy-relevant comebacks next year? 8:37 Jeff Zimmerman: I have thought of that. I like what Kershaw did 8:37 Jeff Zimmerman: Donaldson was a huge risk on draft day 8:37 Jeff Zimmerman: I like Khris Davis next year. 8:37 Jeff Zimmerman: as comeback 8:37 Jeff Zimmerman: Also, Severino. 8:38 Reds: Where to rank Aquino overall for 2020? Top 50? Top 75? 8:38 Jeff Zimmerman: 114 in the early mocks: https://smadaplaysfantasy.com/2EarlyMocks2019/ 8:39 Jeff Zimmerman: The sneaky part of his value is the 7 SB 8:39 Jeff Zimmerman: Going to a full season, he like a 45/20 guy 8:40 Jeff Zimmerman: Even a 30/12 will have people interested 8:40 Andy: Who’s better next season Bauer or Montas? 8:40 Jeff Zimmerman: Bauer 8:40 Michael Scotch: Are you taking Jose Ramirez in the first round? 8:40 Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe. I think he’ll be someone taken around the turn. 8:41 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d love to pair him deGrom if picking there 8:41 RK: one of my league-mates insists that fantasy baseball is becoming less and less predictable and luck is playing more and more of a role. Do you have any evidence to support or refute this? I’d be curious if there was a summary of preseason projections to actual results that has a timer series of the standard deviations. 8:42 Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t have the numbers over time but from some work last year, I found playing time projections are a lot better. 8:42 Jeff Zimmerman: Now league depth is a huge factor 8:43 Jeff Zimmerman: In 15-teams, it is getting tough to find full-time players on the wire 8:43 Jeff Zimmerman: Impossible in only leagues 8:43 Jeff Zimmerman: So more luck in them 8:43 Prince: Dynasty points, keep forever. Should I try to sell Machado now before another lackluster season? I can probably still get $.95 and I’ve got my SS/3B covered. 8:43 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d sell now 8:44 Jeff Zimmerman: I think he may have one good season left but it could head downhill fast 8:44 Norman: What do you make of Ryu for next year? He was outstanding most of the year, but was beyond dreadful for a short stretch, and the injuries are always a concern. 8:45 Jeff Zimmerman: He’s normally good, but the IP are an issue. 8:45 Jeff Zimmerman: His IP have been 126, 82, 182 8:46 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d probably put him at 130 with about 30 IP or replacement level added in 8:47 Michael the Magic: Eduardo Rodriguez finished strong, do you think he turned a corner or just a hot streak? 8:47 Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing really changed at the end besides his HR/9 dropping from 1.3 to 0.8 8:47 Nick: Where are you drafting Machado next year? 8:48 Jeff Zimmerman: in the mocks, he was going 36th overall. That sounds about right to me. The 3rd round 8:49 Hector Boyardee: Do you think Sandy Alcantara is a stud starting next year? 8:49 Jeff Zimmerman: Oh, now. Not even close. 8:51 Jeff Zimmerman: Of the 104 pitchers with 120 IP last season, he ranks 94th 8:51 Jeff Zimmerman: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=1… 8:52 Jeff Zimmerman: He was basically tied with Ariel Jurado 8:52 Hector Boyardee: Does Sam Hillard become a full-timer in Coors next year or will it hinge on injuries (Dahl is always hurt) or will they have to move someone via trade to open up a spot? 8:53 Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t trust them to play him every day. 8:53 Jeff Zimmerman: I hate to remove teams from my do not draft list, but they are close to it 8:54 Jeff Zimmerman: Queue is empty if any more questions. 8:55 Nick: What is the single trade that you most regret making in your fantasy career? 8:56 Jeff Zimmerman: I was in a Scoresheet league and traded several draft picks for ARod right before he became useless. 8:57 Hector Boyardee: Is Max Scherzer going to hold up next season like Verlander or are we seeking chinks in the armor this year which is going to carry over into next? 8:57 Jeff Zimmerman: We are starting to see some issues. He not close to being my #1. 8:58 Jeff Zimmerman: I need reliability from a first round SP 8:58 Hector Boyardee: Will Smith the catcher, he looked great until pitchers adjusted and it looks like he has adjusted back this past week. Do you see him having a Realmuto type season next year or are there too many holes in his swing? 8:59 Jeff Zimmerman: I think there will a ton of growing pains as he gets used to the pitching staff. 8:59 Jeff Zimmerman: I’ll likely not pay up next season 8:59 Ryan: Bellinger’s 2020 will be closer to (a) his 2019 first half, or (b) his 2019 second half? 9:00 Jeff Zimmerman: I think the full-season is more likely. He was insane in the first half. If just the two, 2nd half 9:00 MC: My league wants to introduce keepers in 2020 (H2H 5×5 Qs, OBP 10-Tm) to keep the bottom four or so interested all year. What is the best way to implement this? Straight keep forever? Max of 4,6,8? Keep in the round before they were drafted in the previous year? etc 9:01 Jeff Zimmerman: Keep 4 in a 10-teamer as 1st to 4th round picks 9:01 Jeff Zimmerman: So many ways to do it tough 9:01 Jeff Zimmerman: though 9:01 Ryan: What are the best fantasy landing spots for Rendon and Cole? 9:01 Jeff Zimmerman: Rendon in Colo 9:02 Jeff Zimmerman: Cole back with Houston 9:02 Hector Boyardee: Can Buster Posey bounce back? I don’t know if there has ever been a catcher who has had a hip labrum surgery before? Is it like a shoulder labrurm tear where a player often takes more like two or more years to bounce back? Is it even possible to do do so? 9:02 Jeff Zimmerman: He’s done IMO 9:02 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m pay nothing more than a last round pick for him 9:02 Boch: Is Dubon going to be a star or even above average regular? 9:03 Jeff Zimmerman: I think an average regular. He might become Ketle Marte 9:03 Mick: How concerned should we be (if at all) if Cole ends up in Yankee Stadium next year? 9:03 Jeff Zimmerman: Severino was still going in the 2nd to 3rd round. I hope he goes and the price drops. 9:03 mm43: Mallex worth a keep in a 5×5 or will he descend into the Billy Hamilton bench player status? 9:04 Jeff Zimmerman: He’s so bad a hitter. 9:04 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d get a real hitter 9:04 Hector Boyardee: What do you make of Tommy Edman? Who does he remind you of going forward? 9:04 Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe Whit Merrifield 9:04 Jeff Zimmerman: Edman needs to find PT 9:05 Rick: Baseball Reference tracks managerial tendencies, such as the rate of a team’s steal attempts relative to league average. Are there any managers’ tendencies that are extreme enough to relevant to fantasy? 9:05 Jeff Zimmerman: The Twins quit stealing 9:05 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d watch just SB with managers. Not much else to look at 9:06 Greg: Rendon to COL seems obvious, but what about a more realistic destination (assuming here that the Rockies are set at 3B with Arenado)? 9:07 Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t get involved at all with what might happen. I have too much else to do. I’ll wait until it happens and figure out a plan 9:07 Chucky : Rizzo or Muncy in 2020, 6×6 OBP? 9:07 Jeff Zimmerman: Rizzo 9:07 Trent: Have you tuned in to Monday Night Football at all? The dreadful ESPN announcers already have me sorely missing baseball. 9:07 Jeff Zimmerman: I have it muted. I love the team names at the bottom with neither team winning yet 9:08 Greg: Can Sonny Gray do it again next year? 9:08 Jeff Zimmerman: Sure 9:08 Jobe: Not fantasy related, but have you heard any speculation about Dusty Baker coming out of retirement? Two of his old jobs are open . . . . 9:08 Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t care one bit 9:08 Mick: Bryan Reynolds is a top ___ outfielder in obp leagues next year 9:08 Jeff Zimmerman: 40 9:09 Jeff Zimmerman: Outfield is pretty thin 9:09 Hector Boyardee: Where would you rank Hansel Robles among the closers for 2020? 9:09 Jeff Zimmerman: Top-20 but I wait until Feb to worry about closers. So many moving parts. 9:10 Ontilt1377: 14 team 5×5 , 10 keepers. Keeping 8 bats plus Degrom. Which SP would you pair with him? Ryu , Gallen, Lynn, Minor McKay? Cost all relatively the same (c $10 of $300 budget- $5 annual increases to keep). 9:10 Jeff Zimmerman: Ryu in competitive in 2020, McKay otherwise 9:12 Jeff Zimmerman: That’s it for tonight. 9:12 Jeff Zimmerman: I’ll need to figure out when I can chat next week.