Continuing an annualtradition, this article ranks the top 25 starting pitching prospects by peak projected MLB ERA heading into 2025 (skip to the bottom for the ranking!)
Like the other projection systems at FanGraphs, my projections capture the usual ingredients: past performance weighted by recenecy, regression to the mean that accounts for a player’s probability of making the major leagues, major league equivalencies to adjust for minor league difficulty, aging, park effects, and league scoring environment. The peak projections make use of aging curves to translate a player’s forecast to a late-20s peak forecast. Regardless of where the “true” peak age is, there is broad consensus that most growth happens in the teen years and early-20s, however.
But the fire that wavered after his life-altering and life-threatening cancer diagnosis has rekindled. He feels more well-rounded — there’s so much more than baseball — because the year away allowed him to work through what was “a lot to process.” Now, he hopes, a full offseason of work will lead him to one more opportunity to play the game he loves.
“Honestly, for a couple months, I thought I was going to be done. And I really enjoyed this year. I’ve enjoyed life. But at the same time I really do think I have something left to give the game,” Mancini said. “I’m going to prepare and act as though I’m going to spring training, and just hoping and trying and praying that the opportunity arises.”
Infielder Hyeseong Kim, who stars for the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes, has hired CAA Baseball to represent him ahead of his expected move to Major League Baseball in the upcoming offseason, reports Jeeho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. (Kim’s name is commonly written as Kim Hye-Seong or Hye-Seong Kim, but Yoo further notes via X that CAA specifically informed him the infielder will go by Hyeseong Kim if he indeed moves to North American ball.)
Kim, who’ll turn 26 next January, is old enough and has enough experience in a major foreign league to be considered a “professional” under Major League Baseball’s international standards. He’ll be exempt from international amateur free-agent bonus pools and thus able to sign a major league contract for any length and dollar amount with an interested team.
The former double-play partner of current Padres infielder Ha-Seong Kim 김하성, the younger Kim is a lifetime .301/.361/.398 hitter in 876 games with the KBO’s Heroes.
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Prior to the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser ranked Kim ninth among the top-ten MLB prospects for fans to track (landing behind current big leaguers Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 and Yariel Rodriguez). Glaser called Kim a plus defender at second base (and a capable defender at short) with a “preternatural feel for contact,” good pitch recognition and the ability to catch up to good velocity. At the very least, he could profile as a utilityman with high-end speed and contact skills, though it should come as little surprise if there are clubs who view him as a potential regular at second base. Given his age, Kim should find big league interest — particularly if he can continue his newfound power output.
Believe it or not there are already 2025 drafts going on over the NFBC! I have resisted the urge to participate in any just yet, but that doesn’t mean I haven’t been dialed into the early average draft position (ADP) data – make sure to change the dates to 10/01/24 through the current date as it defaults the 2024 data. I was particularly curious what kind of price hikes we’d see on some of the biggest breakout pitchers from the season so I went over to our Player Rater to find my pitchers of interest.
I landed on a group of 6 who were all drafted outside pick-200 while finishing as Top 30 starters. Since it is Draft Champions season (50-round Draft & Hold format), I’m comparing this early ADP to their DC ADP from March 20th-27th which consisted of 21 drafts.
Here’s where they are going through 5 DC drafts and what I think about their chances of a repeat:
No surprises here as the 2023 #1 overall pick took the league by storm in mid-May and never looked back. In fact, some boards have him as the #1 starter ahead of Tarik Skubal. He has peaked as high as #5 overall and I believe he will go #1 overall in at least one Main Event next spring, barring any sort of news that would create extra injury concerns. He is undoubtedly the best pitcher on this list and thus there isn’t much else to say. I know some will need more than 133 IP to him this high and while I acknowledge nothing is certain and he could suffer a sophomore slump, there is simply nothing in his profile to suggest there is a high or even moderate likelihood of that. You might get him on the turn or just after as he has a max pick of 18, but if you really want Skenes next year, I suggest a mid-to-late 1st round focus for your KDS.
You can feel it in the pit of your stomach. Symptoms of watching a slider hang in the zone from your favorite pitcher include but are not limited to jaw-clenching, toe-curling, fist balling, hot-flashes, “we’ll never make the playoffs” thoughts, and of course, a bubbling sensation in the lower abdomen region. Dylan Cease fans beware, the following GIF may conjure up some of the previously listed symptoms. Read the rest of this entry »
With the season over, it’s to find out how hitters performed who didn’t let an injury heal and played through the pain. Whether these hitters cause permanent damage to their bodies or pick up bad habits, they continue to underperform their projections. Besides collecting the names myself, I’ve asked for some help (article) for this past season’s list.
First, here is a look at how 2023 hitters performed compared to their Steamer projections. Read the rest of this entry »
