Archive for Featured

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1466 – 2026 Shortstop Preview Pt. 1

1/23/26

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

2026 SHORTSTOP PREVIEW

Tier 1

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Mining the News (1/20/26)


Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

American League

Guardians

Kyle Manzardo has added 14 pounds this offseason, along with some baseball “work”.

Kyle Manzardo has been working. Manager Stephen Vogt has noted on several occasions over the past month-plus that the 25-year-old has gained 14 pounds of muscle since the end of the 2025 season. It’s been part of Manzardo’s offseason regimen that appears pointed toward a specific goal that could prove key to Cleveland this coming season.

“He’s putting in the work both offensively, defensively — and most importantly, with his body — to be able to do that.”

Did he not put in any work in previous seasons? Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1464 – 2026 First Base Preview Pt. 2

1/16/26

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PATREON

2026 FIRST BASE PREVIEW Pt. 2

Tier 6

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Four Outfielders: Suzuki, Robert, Reynolds, & Cruz


Syndication: The Enquirer

Previous Outfield Reviews

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 14th, 2026

Thanks for coming out!

1:22

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Sorry I’m late, I have to add my chat back to my Reminders app. I was just going through the day as if it were Tuesday

1:25

clydethedog: NL only 4 x 4 (no runs, no k’s) Keeper League

I have Emilio Pagan and Bryce Eldridge at incredibly cheap, would you try to package them together for another cheap keeper like James Wood or Jackson Chourio?

1:26

Paul Sporer: If you can do that, absolutely. I benefitted from Pagan’s huge year but I’m cashing the hell out. No chance I’m running it back. If he beats the HRs again (1.3 in ’25), I’ll tip my cap and eat the L

1:26

Deep in Draft Prep: Who is the one player (can be any position) you’re planting your flag on who is currently being drafted outside of the top 150 who will finish the season in the the top 75?

1:30

Paul Sporer: Addison Barger (190 ADP) is someone I really like. A bit raw, but smacks the absolute piss outta the ball. I don’t think he’d need to make a huge leap to go .260/30 – think Brandon Lowe from last year.

1:30

Davio: Sox get Ranger. Who do you prefer over Tolle or Early? I’d bet on of them goes in a deal.

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Mining the News (1/13/26)


Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

American League

Astros

• The GM mentioned Joseph Sullivan and Lucas Spence as potential outfield options.

In the spirit of Cole’s ascension, two other young, left-handed-hitting outfielders come to mind for this question: Lucas Spence and Joseph Sullivan.

Brown has mentioned both Spence and Sullivan at points this winter as outfield depth in the upper minor leagues. Sullivan acquitted himself well in the Arizona Fall League while Spence, an undrafted free agent, reached Double-A Corpus Christi in his first full professional season.

Neither has the best overall projection, but they stole a decent number of bases last season (Spence: 27 SB, Sullivan: 43 SB).

Orioles

Gunnar Henderson played through a shoulder injury last year.

Henderson was a call-in guest last night on the “Orioles Hot Stove Show” on WBAL Radio and said he had a shoulder impingement “pretty much for three-quarters of the year.”

“I’m sure that didn’t help, either,” he said.

“I could never get to the spot that I wanted to get to with my swing, but no excuse. Just had to play through it and felt like I still with all those circumstances put up a decent year. Looking forward to being healthy this year and getting back to my normal self.”

The shoulder issue was kept quiet, buried among the litany of Orioles injuries that led to a franchise-record 70 players used.

“I just wasn’t able to hold the plane and my body was adjusting to it, not feeling great, so that didn’t really set up me in the right spot to leverage the ball like I normally do,” Henderson said. “So getting over that and ready to roll this season.”

Rangers

• The team doesn’t have a set closer yet.

Martin and Díaz both have closing experience, as does Robert Garcia — one of few holdovers from last season.

“I think every team would love to have a bona fide lockdown ninth-inning, sure-thing closer that’s never going to give up a run,” Young said. “But the reality is, most teams don’t have that, and teams that go into the season that do have that, oftentimes don’t have it by about halfway through the season. It’s not as ubiquitous as maybe it’s perceived to be in terms of the role.

“I think what we do have are good options we feel like and it’s our job as an organization to put our players in the best positions to succeed. Our hope is that somebody really steps up and establishes themselves and wins that role and takes it.”

Red Sox

• There is a good chance Triston Casas will not be healthy by Opening Day.

Meanwhile, Triston Casas, recovering from a ruptured patellar tendon, admitted that being ready for Opening Day would be tough. He hopes to begin playing games in spring training and praised the Red Sox for signing Contreras to play first.

Willson Contreras will bat fourth.

On Saturday, manager Alex Cora said Contreras will most likely hit fourth.

Tigers

• The team plans to use a closer-by-committee with …

Yes, manager A.J. Hinch now has no shortage of options for the ninth inning. But he’s just as likely to place priority on those arms for the most dangerous part of the opposing lineup, whether it’s due up in the ninth or not.

“I wouldn’t say the specific [save] stat itself was something we were targeting,” general manager Jeff Greenberg said a couple weeks ago. “We were targeting impact arms that we felt could help this team win games in different situations. … And we have a manager in A.J. who is so good at finding ways to get the most out of these guys, putting those pieces together, using our guys in the right situations to get those wins.”

Kyle Finnegan and …

[Finnegan said], “We have lots of different guys that can do lots of different things, and anytime you can get more options to throw in leverage, it’s a huge advantage. And you look at a lot of the teams in the postseason, their bullpens are built with multiple guys that you can throw out there in the eighth, ninth inning and have confidence that they can get it done. So I think the more closers you have on your team, the better.

“I think whoever it is, is going to have the mindset of: Tell me when to pitch and I’ll go out there and do my best.”

Kenley Jansen buying in.

Jansen said. “To me, yes, it’s unbelievable numbers to get this close. But like I told A.J., I didn’t do this to get 500 saves or 400 saves, whatever. You know, I was on a pretty good team, the Dodgers. I’ve had great opportunities, and all our focus is to try to help a team win, and all those things came with it. So at the end of the day, it will be a great accomplishment, but I think the greater accomplishment will be to try to get deep in the postseason and win the World Series with the Tigers. That’s my accomplishment at the end of the day. That’s why I’m here.”

This is a tough situation to believe, but don’t be surprised if a committee does form.

White Sox

Sean Burke will prepare to be a starter.

During a recent interview with MLB.com, Burke provided his usual in-depth answers to questions asked of the right-hander about himself and the team. But when the inquiry turned to preparing as a starter for the ’26 season, his reply was far more succinct.

“Yes, 100 percent,” said Burke of his targeted offseason work.

National League

Cubs

Ben Brown, Javier Assad, and Jordan Wicks will stretch out as starters.

The current plan calls for Brown to prepare as a starter (same for Assad and Wicks), but all three could also be contenders for bullpen roles. Each pitcher in that latter trio also has at least one Minor League option, giving the Cubs the flexibility to send any one to Triple-A Iowa to keep starting, if so desired.

Dodgers

• There were reports Freddie Freeman wanted to play for Team Canada in the WBC, but he’s now declined for personal reasons.

Pirates

• The GM mentioned Jared Triolo as a starter.

Cherington continued. “We’ve traded a little bit of pitching, so would like to add back to that. We’d still like to add to the position-player group. You look at the left side of the infield; obviously there are guys we like. [Jared] Triolo emerged [in] the second half of the year. He’s earned opportunity there. But if we could add someone on the left side of the infield, that’s something we’ll keep an eye out for.[“]


The Early 2026 Starting Pitcher Market

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

As many of you know, the fantasy baseball season never stops for a dedicated contingent that not only plays through the fall and winter but sometimes even does their first draft for the following season during the current one! But I don’t need to explain the concept of “diehards” to y’all, you’re already here. Over at the NFBC there have been 70 Draft Champions drafts completed (15-team, 50-round Draft & Hold leagues), but I’m going to focus on a tighter recent sample of 11 drafts since Christmas since it will give us more recent player movement better accounted for in the data. You can find the ADP data here and use the calendar feature to chop it up as you see fit.

I wanted to get a better feel for the ebbs of flows of where starters are going so this will be a tour through the SP market in the top 300. I’m not explicitly outlining the biggest risers and fallers in this piece. You can track the movement in the SP market (and all positions) in Justin’s reports. I’m going to look at some overall volume counts and then look at them through the prism of some category thresholds.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1462 – Talking The Process ft. Jeff Zimmerman

1/11/26

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PATREON

Notable Transactions/News/Rumors

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1461 – 2026 Catcher Preview Pt. 2

1/9/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

CATCHER PREVIEW Pt. 2

Tier 4

Tier 5

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Predictiveness of MLB Pipeline Executive Poll: Rookie of the Year


Rich Storry-Imagn Images

In my latest Mining the News, I referenced MLB.com’s Rookie of the Year Poll. MLB.com polled team executives to find who they think will win each league’s Rookie of the Year award. I figured it would be a prospect list for fantasy managers to become familiar with. The narrative would be that these inside sources would know the players who would be productive and play enough to win the award. Production and playing time are the two traits needed to be a solid fantasy option. Since this is the poll’s fourth year, I examined previous editions to determine how these executives performed.

The information in the polls is scarce, so all the small sample caveats apply. The results have been collected over the past three seasons (2023, 2024, 2025). In each one, a percentage of executive votes is included. The full list of previous players is at the end of the article.

To each player, I included our Fantasy Player Rater 12-team end-of-season dollar value. Then, I began grouping away. First, here is a plot of all the values.

Besides the four players polled at 50% or higher, the values seem to be fairly random. I grouped the values into four groups based on their polled percentage. Also, I combined the three low-polled groups.

Fantasy Production Based on Polled%
Polled% Avg EOS Fantasy Value % over $0 % over $5 Count
>= 50% $12 75% 75% 4
15% to 49% -$5 11% 22% 9
5% to 15% -$3 33% 50% 12
1% to 5% -$4 27% 45% 22
1% to 49% -$4 26% 42% 43

That top group (n=4) seems to be productive, with the rest of the values being a complete crap shoot. The final line is the most useful. There is a 25% chance of these players contributing more than $5 and a 40% chance of being positive.

With the historical results, here are this year’s lists.

Fantasy Production Based on Polled%

None of the players meet the 50% threshold, so no one is on the must-target list.

Fantasy managers should spend a few minutes on each of those players and track their results. Who knows which one will stand out? Nick Kurtz received just one vote last year and was a league winner.

MLB Pipeline Poll by MLB Executives
Name League Season % Polled EOS Value
Roman Anthoy AL 2025 19% -$4
Jackson Jobe AL 2025 19% -$5
Jasson Domínguez AL 2025 17% $3
Coby Mayo AL 2025 15% -$13
Kristian Campvell AL 2025 9% -$15
Jacob Wilson윌슨 AL 2025 9% $9
Jac Caglianone AL 2025 3% -$20
Nick Kurtz AL 2025 3% $20
Kumar Rocker AL 2025 3% -$9
Kyle Teel AL 2025 3% $3
Dylan Crews NL 2025 50% -$8
Matt Shaw NL 2025 19% -$2
Bubba Chandler NL 2025 10% UNK (issue with player rater)
Jordan Lawlar NL 2025 6% -$21
Dalton Rushing NL 2025 7% -$8
Thomas Saggese NL 2025 7% -$14
Evan Carter AL 2024 36% -$17
Jackson Holliday AL 2024 30% -$16
Junior Caminero AL 2024 15% -$15
Wyatt Langford AL 2024 11% $12
Heston Kjerstad AL 2024 2% -$18
Brooks Lee AL 2024 2% -$18
Curtis Mead AL 2024 2% -$21
Austin Wells AL 2024 2% $3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto NL 2024 51% $7
Jackson Chourio NL 2024 17% $19
Noelvi Marte NL 2024 9% -$15
Pete Crow-Armstrong NL 2024 6% $1
Jordan Lawlar NL 2024 4% DNP
Paul Skenes NL 2024 4% $25
Michael Busch NL 2024 2% $5
Kyle Harrison NL 2024 2% -$6
Jacob Hurtubise NL 2024 2% -$22
James Wood NL 2024 2% -$2
Gunnar Henderson AL 2023 73% $17
Hunter Brown AL 2023 9% -$4
Triston Casas AL 2023 9% $6
Anthony Volpe AL 2023 6% $2
Josh Jung AL 2023 3% $8
Corbin Carroll NL 2023 66% $32
Francisco Álvarez NL 2023 9% $7
Elly De La Cruz NL 2023 3% $5
Sal Frelick NL 2023 3% -$13
Matt Mervis NL 2023 3% -$21
Bobby Miller NL 2023 3% $11
Jared Shuster NL 2023 3% -$10
Ezequiel Tovar NL 2023 3% $8
Miguel Vargas NL 2023 3% -$16
Jordan Walker NL 2023 3% $2