I wanted to dive in on the guys with the biggest swinging strike rate (SwStr%) gains in the early going (min. 10 IP). Where are they getting these new whiffs from, is the surge sustainable, and has it changed their fantasy outlook substantially?

Alex Cobb, LAA | +9 pts to 19%

Cobb’s fast start is tied directly to the return of his splitter aka The Thing. The 1.5 Pitch Value makes it the third best splitter in the league thus far (by results, Pitch Value doesn’t guarantee future success), behind only Kevin Gausman (4.1) and Aaron Civale (2.1). He showed some flashes of getting back on track last year, particularly with the splitter which earned a 2.6 Pitch Value.

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Let’s get a disclaimer out of the way; I’m not writing to recommend a punt and I don’t think you should just completely give up on a category. Ok? All I’m saying is if I were to punt, here’s how I’d do it. Punting in fantasy baseball is when you abandon a category. Saves are hard to come by and you might just be able to completely forego accumulating them. Many fantasy managers will draft with the punt in mind straight from the get-go. Some will wait and see how their team is shaping up and will punt a category that is lacking. Surely there has been work determining the value of the punt, Ron Shandler’s forecaster comes to mind. But let’s look at it from a 2021 perspective and whether or not it’s theoretically possible to punt a category and also win your league.

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Taking suggestions for what we should call the opposite of a “Victory Lap.”

What’s the opposite of a victory lap? March of Failure? Journey of Defeat?

— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) April 20, 2021

On the Agenda: 

1. COVID Issues
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

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1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).
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4/20/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Danny Duffy dominant in loss; ERA down to 0.50 (1:10)
• Keston Hiura hitting .128/.268/.234 (5:35)
• Mookie Betts hit in forearm; will be evaluated Tuesday (14:14)
• Kyle Lewis activated from IL (18:20)
• Rafael Montero notches save on Mon. (23:14)

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Just a few drops I would not have done, but overall, it was a calm, reasonable week. I expect there to be a crazy one coming up when some rookies get the call.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report.
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This made me laugh more than it should have:

THE YERMINATOR IS THE LATEST

(•_•)
<) )╯POSITION
/

(•_•)
( (> PLAYER
/

(•_•)
<) )> PITCHING
/

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/ilsRpvKy7B

— Cut4 (@Cut4) April 19, 2021

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NEW FEATURE ALERT! We have added an upgraded version of RosterResource’s Closer Depth Chart to FanGraphs. Read more about it here.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

The 2021 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News 
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)
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Pitch arsenals are always evolving and while we often discuss new pitches being featured by guys, the ones that fall by the wayside don’t get as much run. Let’s look at a handful of pitches that have either disappeared altogether or if they still throw it, it has experienced at least a 10-point drop.

FOUR SEAMERS

Dane Dunning, TEX | -21% to 0%

Dunning split his fastball usage between a four-seamer and sinker last year, but this year it has essentially been all sinkers (66%) and a couple of cutters (5%). The four-seamer generated a -2.3 Pitch Value/100 (PV/100) thrown last year while the sinker was at 3.4 so he got rid of the bad pitch and funneled into the one that was working. The results have remained solid with a 2.6 PV/100, good for 21st of the 129 pitchers with at least 10 innings so far. While we have seen many pitchers ditch their sinkers for more four-seamers, Dunning is going the other way and it is working for him.

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Truer words have never been spoken

“You know you’re a fantasy baseball player when you are glad Jay Bruce retired on a weekend.” –@MrsDSalinger

— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) April 18, 2021

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