Who is Being Dropped & Why (Week 3)

Just a few drops I would not have done, but overall, it was a calm, reasonable week. I expect there to be a crazy one coming up when some rookies get the call.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report.

Hitters

Elias Diaz (10): Dom Nuñez has taken over as the Rockies’ regular catcher since Diaz has a .233 OPS.

Elvis Andrus (10): The 32-year-old seems like he’s playing hurt, but he might just be done. His speed and hard-hit rate are down and he’s just not able to get on base as seen by his .156 BABIP. Also, his strikeout rate is up 7% points. Reasonable drop.

Tim Locastro (10): Currently on the IL and might not return to a job. Managers will gamble on him if they need steals.

Victor Reyes (10): Once Robbie Grossman was signed and Akil Baddoo started hitting, Reyes is just not playing. It doesn’t help that he has a .458 OPS.

Anderson Tejeda (9): I thought he might be a sneaky stolen base add, but a .180 OPS had him quickly back to the minors.

Danny Jansen (9): With several surprising catchers popping up this season, one with a .268 OPS is just not rosterable.

Ryan Jeffers (9): I’m not exactly sure why he was rostered, to begin with. And for so long into the season.

Asdrúbal Cabrera (8): Cabrera is a player I target right now. Everything in his profile points up but his BABIP (.195). He’s significantly cut his walks and strikeouts, has a career-high 9% Barrel%, and despite a .195 BABIP, he still has a reasonable .723 OPS. To find some buy-low hitters, head over to the BABIP laggard-boards.

Donovan Solano (8): Solano only starts against lefties and the Giants face seven righties this week. These are eight smart managers brave enough to drop a guy with a .311 AVG.

Franchy Cordero (8): A 42% K% and not playing every day has killed his fantasy value.

Josh Naylor (8): He has 0 RBI in 50 PA and 12 hits. No production for now but I could see him go off as Tyler Naquin did and become a must-add.

Leody Taveras (8): Another example of why not to count on bad hitters to provide stolen bases. A .237 OPS in 43 PA.

Mitch Moreland (8): He was sitting because of a hamstring injury. And he doesn’t have an extra-base hit. And he’s not playing every day. Maybe he’ll be relevant in a month or two.

J.P. Crawford (7): With no power (.019 ISO), pitchers are attacking the strike zone (53% to 61%) and his once positive walk rate (11% BB% to 5% BB%) is gone.

Lorenzo Cain (7): On the IL and underperforming (.637 OPS). He might be a useful player once/if he gets healthy.

Niko Goodrum (7): The strikeouts are too many (36% K%) for him to overcome and be a decent hitter.

Rio Ruiz (7): He’s not a good enough hitter to see his strikeout rate to jump to 34%. The two homers and steal are enticing, but he doesn’t hit well enough to contribute.

Starters

Daniel Ponce de Leon (10): A 2.45 HR/9 and WHIP has his ERA at 12.27. It’s not like he’s striking anyone out at 3.7 K/9.

Tony Gonsolin (10): Still on the IL and an unknown role when he returns. Reasonable drop.

Nick Pivetta (9): As someone who had Pivetta as a sleeper early on, the results are mixed (1.64 WHIP, 3.68 ERA) but it could get ugly. If his 0.6 HR/9 regresses close to his career average of 1.6 HR/9 and is paired with his 6.8 BB/9, his ERA could/will explode.

Wade Miley (9): Let me get this straight. A pitcher has dropped his walk rate from 5.7 BB/9 to 1.7 BB/9, increased his groundball rate to 57% GB%, and has 2.25 ERA. Some fantasy managers are out thinking this game. Add where available next week.

Chris Flexen 플렉센 (8): See Wade Miley. The only issue with Flexon is that he won’t get many two-start weeks since the Mariners are in a six-man rotation.

Brett Anderson (7): I consider Anderson a streamer with his low strikeout rate and high groundball rate. He’s taken it to an extreme this year. The late-80’s wants its 4.2 K/9 and 58% GB% back. At least he’s been able to thread the needle with a 2.65 ERA so far.

Madison Bumgarner (7): His walk rate (4.34 BB/9) this season is twice his career average. His home run rate (1.9 HR/9) this season is twice his career average (0.9 HR/9). Those two have led to his 8.68 ERA being almost three times his career value (3.26 ERA). The rodeo may be calling him sooner rather than later.

Relievers

David Bednar (10): Even though he has a 97-mph fastball, he’s not been dominant (7.5 K/9), and isn’t in line for Saves.

Kyle Crick (10): There is just no faith in Pirates’ closers. While he hasn’t allowed a run yet, but has a 5.7 BB/9.

Hansel Robles (9), Blake Treinen (8), Trevor May (9), Dylan Floro (8), Chad Green (7), and Giovanny Gallegos (7): These good relievers are being dropped as managers grind the wire looking for Saves.

Randy Dobnak (9): A middle reliever with a 5.4 K/9 (and 11.88 ERA) is unrosterable.

Archie Bradley (8): Backup closer on the IL.

Devin Williams (8): Williams is why managers should not draft middle relievers (210 ADP in the Main Event).

Caleb Smith (7): He’s been moved to the bullpen after struggling as a starter.

David Price (7): His name was the only reason he was still being rostered. He’s done.

Jonathan Loaisiga (7): And why was an OK middle reliever rostered?





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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rustydude
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rustydude

Price 2019: 10.7 k/9; 2.7 bb/9; 1.3 hr/9; 3.62 fip
Price 2020: opted out
Price 2021: 10.4 k/9; 4.1 bb/9; 3.1 hr/9; 6.67 fip

FB velo up a full point from 2019.

BB, HR and fip this year driven by first 2 relief appearances of the season. He’s been good in the 4 appearances since then. He might have had some rust or adjustment to the new role issues.

If you’re in a points or holds league, he’s worth holding. His arm might be stronger with a year off.

drewsylvania
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drewsylvania

Plus he’s first man up when there’s an injury in the rotation.

Nasty Nate
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Nasty Nate

Yeah, there are plenty of leagues in which non-closers are rosterable. Price has some sneaky value in those leagues. The Dodgers win 5 games a weak, and not all of those W’s will be going to their starters.