This past Saturday morning, I hopped on the NYC subway for the quick trip to Hotel Edison to participate in the annual Tout Wars AL-Only live auction and try to win a third AL-Only and fourth overall Tout Wars championship. It’s one of the most exciting days of the year, and it’s always bittersweet when it’s over, knowing that I’ll have to wait an entire year to auction with these lads again.
Last weekend, the largest national fantasy baseball contest kicked off – the NFBC Main Event. For those unfamiliar, it’s a 30-round, 15-team, 5×5 roto contest with an $1,800 entry fee. This year, 855 teams will be drafted (57 leagues), and only one person will win the overall grand prize of $200,000. Most of these leagues are drafted online. A dozen or so are drafted in person, in Las Vegas, on the weekend of March 20.
I’ve been to Vegas for the Main Event every year since 2014, except for the COVID-shortened season. It’s an incredible experience filled with camaraderie among diehard fantasy baseball enthusiasts, many of us long-time friends. Many of the attendees are incredibly sharp, skilled managers, though not everyone who enters and attends is a fantasy savant. As math would have it, every league has 12 losers, since only the top three cash. For the most part, and of importance to fantasy baseball managers everywhere, is that Main Event drafters are highly invested and motivated. The draft boards and ADP movement in these leagues is worth looking at closely. We can extract actionable takeaways from such highly invested players that can assist with our roto drafts, no matter the entry fee.
Main Event drafters are human. They can be swayed by spring training production and swept away in ADP helium, a chain reaction of pushing players higher and higher in drafts, far beyond their November-February market prices. Last March, Main Event helium rose Cristopher Sánchez by several rounds, from a 175 ADP in January to 101 by Vegas, including a min pick of 63. Obviously, that worked out. A similar thing happened with Nick Pivetta, Robbie Ray, Kris Bubic, but also with Will Warren, Hayden Birdsong, and a slew of out-of-nowhere “closers” who bombed – Luke Jackson, Jordan Romano, and Mike Clevinger. And who can forget the rise of red-hot Astros outfielder Cam Smith? We call it helium because it’s literally akin to a balloon taking you up, up, and away – oftentimes directly into the scorching sun.
One interesting nuance of the Main Event: since there is overall prize money on the line as well, and we’re competing against 800+ others, it does not behoove us to punt roto categories – specifically, pitching ones. One adage is always true here: pitching always gets pushed up in the Main Event. Elite ratios (ERA, WHIP) are a scarce commodity; hence, most NFBC managers focus on anchoring their teams with strong pitching to avoid the inevitable blowups when chasing mediocre two-start pitchers in FAAB during the season. With strong planning, execution, and a bit of luck, we can punt saves in our standalone home leagues. This strategy rarely works in the Main Events, where roto categorical balance is vital and where league-mates research incessantly to make competitive bids every FAAB period for 27 weeks. Teams at the top of the Main Event standings last year didn’t win and do well in pitching because they drafted breakouts like Sánchez, Bryan Woo and/or Hunter Brown alone. Many of them used a first or second round pick on Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, or Garrett Crochet and drafted Woo and Pivetta, or Brown and Nathan Eovaldi, and picked up Trevor Rogers in-season for pennies on the dollar in May. A decade ago, the fantasy world would scoff at the idea of drafting starting pitchers or closers early. In the Main Event world in recent years, no one has besmirched their fellow competitors for drafting Skubal with the first pick of the draft or the elite, top closer in the second round.
Many of us enjoy digging deep into pitcher profiles and advanced stats at FanGraphs and other sites, hoping to discover prospect pitchers who are ready to break out, or undervalued “sleeper” pitchers the market is currently undervaluing. We want to be first on the next big thing. We want to draft him before others, and if we can’t, sometimes we’ll grab one of those helium balloons and set some min picks.
Biggest SP Risers
With the first five 2026 Main Event drafts in the books, the fresh ADPs are available for all to peruse (select ‘Main Event’ in the dropdown). The original plan for this piece was to compare the last 10 days of NFBC Draft Champions ADP (50 rounds, no FAAB) to these first five Main Event drafts to see who the biggest risers and fallers were at each position. After a quick visit with my good friend XLOOKUP and building out some comparison tables, my focus (and impetus for this piece) was inspired by the massive helium with starting pitchers after 200 ADP. This is where the action was at, with blasts from our past like Kyle Harrison, Taj Bradley, Luis Gil in all his Ricky Vaughn-esque glory, and even the legend himself, Justin Verlander, who is back with the Tigers.
I sorted and discovered the starting pitchers whose Main Event ADP is at least three rounds higher than where it was just last week in the 50-round Draft Champions format. Pitchers in this group have risen exorbitantly over the last week for various reasons: increased spring velocity, introducing an effective new pitch, having a productive (in some cases, dominant) spring, and the increasing likelihood of an Opening Day rotation spot and aspirations of massive profit from a late-round selection.
The table below consists of 25 starting pitchers – mostly from the middle and late rounds – whose ADPs have risen by at least three rounds (45 picks) from early-March DCs to these first five Main Events. I’ve listed ADPs and their pick differences, the number of 15-team rounds increased by, and the percentage increase.
| # | Name | Team | DC ADP | Main ADP | Total Rise | Round Rise | % Rise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Wrobleski | Dodgers | 515 | 379 | 136 | 9 | 26% |
| 2 | J.T. Ginn | Athletics | 577 | 444 | 133 | 9 | 23% |
| 3 | Kyle Harrison | Brewers | 437 | 322 | 115 | 8 | 26% |
| 4 | River Ryan | Dodgers | 486 | 375 | 111 | 7 | 23% |
| 5 | Steven Matz | Rays | 499 | 391 | 107 | 7 | 22% |
| 6 | Rhett Lowder | Reds | 411 | 316 | 95 | 6 | 23% |
| 7 | JR Ritchie | Braves | 515 | 423 | 92 | 6 | 18% |
| 8 | Richard Fitts | Cardinals | 522 | 431 | 91 | 6 | 17% |
| 9 | Justin Verlander | Tigers | 461 | 374 | 87 | 6 | 19% |
| 10 | Braxton Garrett | Marlins | 390 | 306 | 84 | 6 | 22% |
| 11 | Mick Abel | Twins | 365 | 288 | 77 | 5 | 21% |
| 12 | Taj Bradley | Twins | 404 | 329 | 75 | 5 | 19% |
| 13 | Cade Cavalli | Nationals | 342 | 270 | 71 | 5 | 21% |
| 14 | Dustin May | Cardinals | 397 | 326 | 71 | 5 | 18% |
| 15 | Grant Holmes | Braves | 425 | 358 | 67 | 4 | 16% |
| 16 | Jose Soriano | Angels | 328 | 271 | 57 | 4 | 17% |
| 17 | Luis Gil | Yankees | 350 | 298 | 52 | 3 | 15% |
| 18 | Zack Littell | Nationals | 490 | 438 | 52 | 3 | 11% |
| 19 | David Peterson | Mets | 357 | 307 | 51 | 3 | 14% |
| 20 | Shane Baz | Orioles | 199 | 150 | 49 | 3 | 25% |
| 21 | Johan Oviedo | Red Sox | 387 | 339 | 49 | 3 | 13% |
| 22 | Shane McClanahan | Rays | 211 | 162 | 49 | 3 | 23% |
| 23 | Matthew Liberatore | Cardinals | 410 | 361 | 49 | 3 | 12% |
| 24 | Brandon Sproat | Brewers | 471 | 423 | 48 | 3 | 10% |
| 25 | Mike Burrows | Astros | 277 | 232 | 45 | 3 | 16% |
Justin Wrobleski | River Ryan, Los Angeles Dodgers
If a pitcher has a pulse, wears Dodger Blue, and has a shot at the rotation, expect helium to ensue. Blake Snell will likely spend the first month of the season on the injured list. Most drafters don’t trust Roki Sasaki, whose ADP has fallen from the the low 200’s to the mid 300’s over the past two months. Manager Dave Roberts says he will be in the rotation, which means there will be at least one rotation spot open for Wrobleski or Ryan. Both have been solid in spring – Wrobleski has 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K in 6 IP and Ryan has a 7:3 K:BB with one earned run allowed, also in six innings. Ryan is the more exciting and dynamic pitcher, but both his and Wrobleski’s ADPs remain close to each other until more definitive news is presented. Whoever is officially announced as the guy joining the rotation should see a spike of 100+ draft slots. For our shallower home leagues, these are names to monitor, but not specifically target.
Both are beneficiaries of the Roki Sasaki spring rollercoaster ride. As the market continues to lose market confidence in Sasaki and Blake Snell’s timetable continues to be pushed, Wrobleski and Ryan’s preseason
Mick Abel | Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins
Both Abel and Bradley had horrific 2025 seasons and were mostly off our radars this draft season. Bradley had success at this level before, with the Rays in 2024, but owns a career 4.86 ERA in 385 innings. Abel was a promising first-round draft pick of the Phillies whose stock plummeted after his rough 39-inning debut last season (6.23, 1.51). Abel has 13 punchouts and no walks allowed in 10 spring innings. Bradley has a 19:5 K:BB with 7 ER in 14 innings. Given Abel’s pedigree, he is likely to rise up ADP at a higher rate than Bradley, depending on how his next spring starts go. Nevertheless, both pitch for a declining Twins team and run support may be tough to come by. Abel and Bradley’s high ADPs in the Main Event are tough pills to swallow and it might be best to not chase either one.
Kyle Harrison | Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers
With Freddy Peralta traded and Quinn Priester dealing with nerve issues in his wrist and starting the season on the IL, opportunities arise for the Brewers’ newest, talented young arms, Harrison and Sproat. Both are projected to begin the season in the rotation, though Sproat’s inclusion may depend on the health status of Logan Henderson. Harrison’s ADP has ballooned as it gets close to Round 20 of 15-team Main Events. Sproat’s current price is a bit more palatable, though it too will likely rise over the next two weeks. Both are former impact prospects and familiar names. Fantasy managers usually feel comfortable investing in Milwaukee starters, and this does feel like a great opportunity for both Harrison and Sproat. Harrison is a strong end-game target in shallower non-NFBC leagues as well.
Dustin May | Richard Fitts | Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals
It really is comical how much preseason baseball influences the market. Two months ago, fantasy analysts (myself included) preached to avoid Cardinals pitchers outright. Fast forward to March, and the helium begins impacting every potential starting pitcher who looks good in the spring. Liberatore had somewhat of a breakout season in 2025, producing respectably in 29 starts, posting an above-average walk rate of 6.2%. May has teased us for years and there is no doubt he will draw many drafters back in. May finally threw more than 60 innings in a season last year (132.1 between two teams), but the results were poor (4.96 ERA, 4.47 SIERA, 1.42 WHIP. The most important thing to monitor with May this spring is his control. He walked batters at a 9.6% clip last year and has three walks in 6.2 innings so far this spring. Fitts is throwing hard (touching 99 mph) and having a nice spring. It’s possible that he beats out Kyle Leahy for the fifth spot, but is more likely to begin the season in Triple-A. Of the three, Liberatore is the one I’d want to target in deeper drafts. For 12-team drafts, stay away from all three.
Grant Holmes | J.R. Ritchie, Atlanta Braves
Traditionally, Atlanta Braves rotations have been a strong source of March helium – AJ Smith-Shawver anyone? With Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep sidelined for a while, opportunities to snag rotation spots have risen. Holmes is all but locked into a spot, especially after a masterful nine-strikeout performance against the Pirates on Thursday. Holmes did not allow a hit in five innings. Holmes boasted a 25% strikeout rate (22 starts, one relief appearance), though his 11% walk rate was a huge issue. Holmes is capable of reducing it to the 9% range, though don’t expect a helpful WHIP from him. As long as Holmes is healthy, he will be in this rotation. His 358 ADP is very reasonable, though it’s certainly going up after that masterful performance. Ritchie is a stud prospect who returned from Tommy John in June of 2024 and had a strong season in the minors in 2025 (140 IP – 2.64 ERA – 1.01 WHIP – 24.8% K – 9.6% BB). Though he is likely to start the year in Triple-A, he is certainly ready to dominate in the Majors. He is one spring injury away from earning a rotation spot before Opening Day. Both Holmes and Ritchie are strong targets in deeper formats and in the Main Event.
Wrapping It Up
There are other intriguing risers like Shane McClanahan, though we must always proceed with caution chasing massive ADP jumps with pitchers like him and Joe Musgrove who are working their way back after long delays. It’s difficult to field competitive fantasy squads if they’re loaded with injury risks and promising prospects. Hey, it’s great that Cade Cavalli is healthy and looks fantastic this spring. But there’s no chance I’m going to chase a Washington Nationals’ starter into the top 250 ADP when there are oodles of viable, safer options in this draft range. For every few risers, there are fallers. Sometimes players fall because we’re too dialed into small spring samples and missing the forest for the trees.
Though some of the best fantasy players around play the NFBC Main Event, we must remember that no one can predict the future. We can still take occasional risks, but they must be calculated and logical ones. Taking a shot on the Braves and Brewers pitchers who have been rising feel like a sharper move than chasing ADP helium on lesser talented starters who aren’t guaranteed rotation spots and play on worse teams. Good starting pitching is a key to success in all roto formats, but chasing helium blindly will often carry our balloon directly into getting burnt. Stay cool out there.
Earlier this week, on the Keep or Kut podcast, I discussed (among other things) how all Spring Training news is bad. The good news (Jac Caglianone hit a ball a million miles per hour! Shota Imanaga has added velocity!) is all interesting but we immediately get into small-sample-size, how-much-does-it-mean debates. But the bad news is a lot of injuries and suspensions and that stuff you can act on right away.
You can see this in the Ottoneu add/drop data. The players being added in the most leagues the last seven days are mostly guys who are new to MLB or struggled last year – Tatsuya Imai, Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, Mookie Betts, etc. The only player in the top 10 most added this week who can reasonably be attributed to spring news (the new kick change) is Kyle Harrison. The top 10 most dropped, however, are all spring news: Jurickson Profar, Pablo Lopez, Reese Olson, Anthony Santander, etc.
Way down on that list, but creeping up, is Hunter Greene.
Brad Mills-Imagn Images
Guardians
• Joey Cantillo hopes to upgrade his slider.
“My slider has been pretty dog-water the last couple of years,” Cantillo said. “Honestly, it’s been bad. It’s been something we’ve just kind of hoped to throw in the zone, and it’s been a pitch where you really have to throw it to a great location for me to have the results that I want with it.”
Cantillo is coming off a 2025 season in which he logged a 3.21 ERA over 34 appearances (including 13 starts). Heading into a key spring in which he is competing for a spot in the Guardians’ rotation, he honed in on upgrading his slider to not only make it a more viable option for him in ‘26, but to hopefully make his other, stronger offerings even more effective.
The result? Cantillo made a slight grip adjustment that he and the Guardians hope will pay dividends this season, as the 26-year-old looks to make the next step in his evolution as a big league starting pitcher.
“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”
Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.
Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”
Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster.
ADP Cluster: Middle Round Corner Infielders
ADP from 17 NFBC 12-team Online Championships (OC) drafts over the last five days (March 5 – March 9)
These are the seven corner infielders clustered in the Rounds 15 and 16 range of NFBC OCs. Right above them are Matt Chapman (157.8) and Willson Contreras (166.7), and right below them are Christian Walker (210.2) and Munetaka Murakami (211). Rookie prospects, multi-position eligible guys, injury risk, big power – this cluster has it all! Let’s dig into this group using our four defined pillars.
Playing Time (and Role)
The best place to start is with projected playing time. FGDC and OOPSY have identical playing time for all players, as do THE BAT and ATC. Since I manage playing time at FTN, I included my own in the average projection across three sets.
| Name | OOPSY | ATC | FTN | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson | 637 | 617 | 602 | 619 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 609 | 567 | 611 | 596 |
| Alec Burleson | 602 | 576 | 558 | 579 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 560 | 523 | 592 | 558 |
| Royce Lewis | 567 | 493 | 483 | 514 |
| Sal Stewart | 504 | 472 | 512 | 496 |
| Addison Barger | 518 | 469 | 454 | 480 |
Addison Barger projects for the lightest workload due to expectations of mostly being a strong-side platoon hitter. He projects to bat cleanup against righties. Last season, Barger mostly batted fifth (109 PA), second (107) and fourth (100).
Sal Stewart has 18 games of big league experience. He is having a strong spring (.318/.423/.636, 2 HR, 2 SB in 26 PA) and projects to be an everyday bat for the Reds. At approximately 117 games, it’s likely we are all under-projecting him. Stewart has been one of the biggest ADP risers among corner infielders, jumping two rounds from February (Rd 17) to March (Rd 15). Stewart should start the season off hitting fifth behind Elly De La Cruz and Eugenio Suárez.
Royce Lewis’ 514 average projected plate appearances may be generous considering his woeful health history. His 403 PA last season (106 games) is a career high. Lewis is expected to hit somewhere between fifth and seventh to start the season, but could move up to third or fourth if he stays healthy and remains productive.
Kazuma Okamoto is expected to be an everyday hitter for the Blue Jays. He was quite the model of health in the NPB, averaging 589 plate appearances in his first seven seasons (2018-2024). Okamoto missed half of 2025 with a left elbow injury following a collision with a batter who was running down the first base line. Roster Resource projects Okamoto to start the season hitting seventh. He could work his way up into the top five, but Blue Jays manager John Schneider will likely utilize lefties (Barger, Daulton Varsho, Jesús Sánchez) to hit between their impact righties, projected leadoff man George Springer and no. 3 hitter, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The St. Louis Cardinals’ Opening Day lineup is very much a work in progress. Lars Nootbaar won’t be ready in time and Iván Herrera has been dealing with knee inflammation. Rookie infielder JJ Wetherholt is essentially a lock to make the club, with a prominent role. Left-handed hitting Alec Burleson is a vital middle-of-the-order bat for the Cardinals who will start every day. Burleson greatly improved against left-handed pitching last season, albeit small samples: a 44 wRC+ in 2024 (133 PA) to a 98 wRC+ in 2025 (118 PA). Burleson should hit third to start the season.
Jonathan Aranda was having a breakout season, slashing .316/.393/.489 with 14 HR and 59 RBI in 106 games (422 PA) before fracturing his left wrist on July 31 in a collision with the human wall known as Giancarlo Stanton. Aranda crushed righties (.203 ISO), but struggled to hit for power against lefties (.071 ISO, 1 HR in 98 PA). He did make slight gains against lefties overall though, earning free passes at a 12.2% clip, producing a .378 OBP and 111 wRC+. Aranda should continue facing lefty starters, though he’d likely hit lower in the lineup against them. Against righties, Aranda should bat third.
Former first overall MLB draft pick from 2020, Spencer Torkelson, played in 155 games (649 PA) in 2025 and 159 games (684 PA) in 2023. His 2024 season (92 games, 381 PA) was derailed by an inability to hit baseball and spending nearly half the season in Triple-A. Riley Greene and Torkelson are their most productive hitters. My projected plate appearances for Torkelson are low and I’ll have to readjust for the next update. He is very likely to earn real-life plate appearances closer to where Jason R.R. Martinez (FGDC) and Jordan Rosenblum (OOPSY) have him.
Health/Durability
There are very few concerns of health and durability in this group, except for Royce Lewis, who has been dealing with soft tissue and lower body ailments since becoming a major leaguer. Like Torkelson, Lewis was drafted first overall (2017), though he did not make his MLB debut until 2022. Lewis tore his ACL in 2022 and again in 2023, playing in just 58 games in his official rookie year. He also spent time on the IL that year with hamstring and oblique injuries. He missed half the 2024 season due to quad and abdominal injuries. Last season, he was slowed by two more hamstring injuries – one in late March and the other mid June. His lower body must have been feeling swell when he returned, because he stole nine bases on 10 attempts in the final month (98 PA) after swiping just three in his first 301 plate appearances. Lewis had yet another scare early this spring (side tightness) but was able to return a few days later. In some other dimension where he’s healthy, Lewis is a top 25 hitter, but in this league, his laundry list of injuries have rightfully kept his ADP and fantasy price down.
The rest of this cluster have mostly stayed healthy and have shown durability. Sal Stewart had surgery on his right wrist in 2024 while in High-A following an off-field accident. Alec Burleson had a couple of quick IL stints in 2023 (left thumb fracture) and 2025 (right wrist inflammation). Otherwise, this is a fairly sturdy group.
Skills/Categorical Contributions
Below are average 12-team roto values for the 2026 season using three models. Note that ATC is an aggregate system that may include OOPSY as part of their formula mix, but we’ll use OOPSY separately since their projected playing time is different than ATC’s.
| Name | ATC | OOPSY | FTN | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | $10.8 | $8.2 | $11.6 | $10.2 |
| Jonathan Aranda | $7.6 | $3.6 | $11.7 | $7.6 |
| Spencer Torkelson | $7.6 | $7.8 | $6.3 | $7.2 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | $2.8 | $2.5 | $8.7 | $4.7 |
| Royce Lewis | $1.0 | $6.8 | $3.6 | $3.8 |
| Sal Stewart | $3.6 | ($0.6) | $8.0 | $3.7 |
| Addison Barger | ($2.8) | $2.4 | $0.0 | ($0.1) |
Alec Burleson comes in as the best value of this group, fueled primarily by a projected batting average in the .270s. Burleson hit .290 last season and boasts a respectable 83.4% career contact rate. His power metrics last year were around league-average (91 mph EV, 9.4% barrel, 43% hard-hit), but he has hit 18 and 21 home runs the last two seasons, and projects for around 20 this season. He’s the toughest guy in this cluster to punch out (career 13.6%). With 600+ plate appearances for the first time ever, Burleson can set career highs in runs and RBIs, producing 80 or more in each category. He may steal a few bases as well. He swiped five on six attempts in 2025 and nine on 13 attempts in 2024.
Jonathan Aranda hit 14 home runs in 422 plate appearances and flashed above-average power metrics (93 EV, 12.8% BRL, 54% HH). His contact rate (77%) was around league average, though he hit .316 with a .291 xBA. Models project his 2026 batting average in the .260-.270 range, a fair regression when we factor in Aranda’s high BABIP (.409), which inflated that average. He likely won’t hit .274 against lefties in a larger sample this season. OOPSY projects Aranda for .249 batting average, and that is why OOPSY’s value for Aranda is low relative to the other two models.
Kazuma Okamoto is the toughest of the group to project, as the 29-year-old will make MLB debut after eight seasons in the NPB. Models project Okamoto for a walk 9-10% walk rate and a 18-20% strikeout rate. OOPSY is least bullish on his strikeout rate (24.8%). With 550+ plate appearances, Okamoto should hit around 20-25 homers with around 135-165 combined R/RBI, with the distribution between the runs and runs batted in depending on where in the batting order he settles. He doesn’t run and isn’t expected to help in stolen bases.
Spencer Torkelson and Addison Barger are the two best bets for above-average power production of this group. Torkelson hit 31 home runs in each of his two full seasons. Barger hit 21 in 502 PAs last season and boasted an elite hard-hit rate (51%), a 91.7 mph average exit velocity and a 116.5 max EV. Barger flashed a .231 ISO against righties (115 wRC+) and a .120 (69 wRC+) against lefties.
Before 2025, Lewis rocked an elite frequency of round-trippers (16.6 AB/HR). He managed to hit only 13 of them last season (403 PA), which took his AB/HR up to around 20. His career EV (89.1), barrel rate (10%), and hard-hit rate (39.8%) are league-average. It’s why we won’t see any model project 25+ homers even though we know he’s capable of it if he stays healthy.
Sal Stewart produced well in Double-A (329 PA) and Triple-A (165 PA) last season: 78 R – 20 HR – 80 RBI – 17 SB – .309. He is one of the few fantasy first basemen who can produce double-digit swipes. Despite having fewer than 60 career plate appearances in the majors, Stewart feels like the corner with the most upside in this group and the one most likely to move up into the ADP tier above this one. On February 12, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reported that Stewart shed 26 pounds during the offseason.
Context of Team Offense
One thing in common is that none of these corners play on elite offenses – no one here is on the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets or Orioles. The Blue Jays scored the fourth most runs last year (798) and could be a top 10 run-producing crew again, but someone will have to step into Bo Bichette’s shoes. The Jays were 23rd in runs in 2024 when Bichette missed half the season. Okamoto and another year with Barger should help, but this lineup hinges on the consistency of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and they’ll need both George Springer and Daulton Varsho to stay healthy. Rogers Centre’s Park Factor is neutral (100).
The best offensive context among this group is that of the Reds. Great American Ball Park is an elite hitters’ park, ranking third in overall Park Factor (103) and second in HR Park Factor (123). Stewart currently projects to bat fifth behind Elly De La Cruz and Eugenio Suárez. It’s a righty-heavy lineup that Stewart can earn full-time at-bats in. It would not be shocking to see him smash his aggregate RBI projection of 66. Stewart had a strong success rate in stolen bases (84%, 27-of-32) and should have the green light so long as Elly and Suárez aren’t clogging up the base paths.
Comerica Park in Detroit is considered a pitchers’ park, but it’s Park Factor is neutral (100) as is its HR factor (99). Torkelson has 42 career road homers and 38 at Comerica in a similar number of plate appearances – 1,040 at home, 1,078 on the road. He typically whiffs at a 26-27 percent clip and produces substandard batting averages – .240, .219 and .233 over his first three seasons. Torkelson doesn’t have much lineup protection batting fifth with guys like Wenceel Pérez and Colt Keith behind him. The projected top-four of rookie Kevin McGonigle, Gleyber Torres, Kerry Carpenter (vs. RHP) and Riley Greene looks great on paper and the Tigers are favored to win the AL Central.
Aranda, Lewis and Burleson are on some of the weaker projected offensive teams in the league. Burleson and Aranda are both expected to hit third in their respective lineups. Lewis could work his way up with steady production and just staying healthy. The 2-5 after Byron Buxton looks exceptionally weak: Josh Bell, Luke Keaschall, Trevor Larnach (4th vs. RHP) and Victor Caratini.
Verdict (with value grades, A-F)
Alec Burleson (B) is the best all-around value and has the highest floor. He gets an extra boost to his value for his dual (1B-OF) eligibility.
Kazuma Okamoto (B) feels like a risky proposition considering he’s never played in the majors and will have much to adjust to. He’s the one guy in this tier I’m most confident will produce a profit at his price tag.
Sal Stewart (B-) is the most volatile of the bunch as a rookie with very little big league experience. He has arguably the most upside and offers additional value in the stolen base category. He’s the hitter most likely to surge into the tier above.
Jonathan Aranda (B-) officially broke out last season and has an above-average floor, but we should be careful projecting a plus batting average and assuming that he will play against left-handed pitchers all season.
Spencer Torkelson (C+) has massive batting average downside, but makes up for it with strong power production (30 HR, 85 RBI) for a hitter in this range. If you’re a BA snob, draft other sources of power.
Royce Lewis (C+) is incredibly polarizing because of his massive prospect pedigree and some epic production stretches that balance out with legitimate concerns about his ability to stay on the field.
Addison Barger (C) exhibited plus power against righties in his breakout season. I’m lower on him than the market and haven’t been drafting him because I prefer other corner infielders in this range. His struggles against lefties likely won’t go away this season, and it’s more difficult to roster platoon bats in shallow redraft leagues.
In 1996, Larry Labadini had a dream. He entered the AL Only Tout Wars league with a plan that had never been attempted before: a $9 pitching staff. Labadini pulled it off, spending just one dollar on each pitching and the rest of his money on offense. He then built up a lead on offense before trading his hitting for pitching. He fell just short of winning the league, finishing fourth.
Here is today’s chat transcript:
Is the regular season that close that it’s already time for Bold Predictions?! I’ve been doing these for many, many years and they never stop being fun. I also want to caution that I’m truly fantastic at predicting injuries. By that, I mean a good portion of my positive picks seem to regularly miss a chunk of the season while on the IL, so perhaps being listed here is more curse than complement. We shall find out if the trend continues at the end of September! Note that any bold predictions calling for an auction value or ranking by end of season will be based on our auction calculator’s default settings.
Join Justin Mason as he drafts his 2026 Mixed LABR Team live! Read the rest of this entry »
Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
• An interesting quote on how catchers might be graded on how well they challenge with ABS.
Within that, the Twins are among many teams giving catchers vastly more leeway than pitchers to challenge borderline calls, with hitters likely falling somewhere in between. That’s backed by minor-league data, in addition to a general sense that the emotional bias of pitchers clouds their objectivity.
For years, there’s been lots of talk about the ABS system reducing the value of catchers by making pitch framing a less essential skill, but I’m becoming increasingly convinced the opposite is true. Catchers who master the art of ABS challenges could have a bigger impact than ever. It will change games.