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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

And we’re back!! As much as I adore this game, it was nice to take a few days off. I’m at my sister’s watching their Dalmatian pup (almost 2 yrs old) so I’ve been spending a lot of time with him & Charlotte! I’ll be working on my SP rankings update over the weekend to have it out for next week. No NYM-PHI today since they played yesterday, but we still have 15 games thanks to a TBR-BOS doubleheader.

• Henderson was solid in his return from the IL and could be poised for a huge 2H if he can stay healthy.
• After just 4 Ks in 12.7 IP during his first two starts of the year, Melton has at least 5 in each of his L6 (27% K). Future ace.
• Since the 8 ER bomb in TOR that capped off a nightmare May (7.39 ERA in 5 starts), Alcantara has a 3.10 ERA/1.09 WHIP/16% K-BB in his L8 and that includes a Dud at COL you might’ve reasonably gotten away from (it was that terrifying 2-step at COL and at ATH… of course, if you did sit him that week, you also missed his absolute gem at ATH: 8 IP/1 ER/8 K). While my confidence isn’t as high as when he was Peak Sandy, he’s back to a set-it-and-forget-it status for me.
• Walks are the issue for Roupp in his bad starts but he’s so good when dialed in. His Game Scores show his volatility: 13-61-43-56-57-22-75 in his L7.
• Gav Williams and Cole get brutal matchups out of the break, but I still don’t see myself sitting them. Just less appealing for daily style games where you’re only focused on today.
• Back-to-back Duds and 3 in his L4 have pushed Detmers ERA from 3.68 to 4.39 with 11 BB and 5 HRs being behind the struggles. He was coming off an immaculate 5-start run of 1.36 ERA/0.55 WHIP/30% K-BB before that, so classic guardrail-to-guardrail Detmers. I can see a shallow league skip if you’re nervous but I generally just ride the waves with him in medium & deeper formats.
• Bennett is blazing hot of late with just 5 ER allowed in his L5, keeping the bases nearly spotless with a .202 BABIP and just 3 BB in 32.3 IP. Of course he’s not this good but I can’t see taking him out of the lineup right now. I added the 3rd X to him, Detmers, and Jones after the post went live upon further review.
• Jones capped off the 1H with an excellent start v. ATL that has many excited for his 2H, but it was only his 2nd time reaching 5 IP and I don’t have any reason to believe the standard TJ return volatility will go away. I’m rooting for him as I really became a big fan in his breakout 2024, but I’m eyeing 2027 for him to return to set-it-and-forget-it status. For now, he very much remains a Team Streamer at best.

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The State of Baseball episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Zack Scott

Analytics in Baseball

• The biggest revelations in baseball analtyics over the past few years
• What is new in basbeall analytics in 2026?
• Who makes the day to day lineup in baseball – the manager or the front office?
• For player evaluation – How much do analytics factor in vs. scouting reports vs. actual production?
• Why don’t major league teams pay enough (salary) for analysts?
• The best sabermetric stats to use for hitters and for pitchers
• Is baseball too analytically driven today?

State of Baseball

• Thoughts on the addition of the extra wildcard teams in baseball
• Thoughts on moving back the MLB trade deadline
• Will there be baseball in 2027?
• Thoughts on a potential salary cap
• Thoughts on contract deferrals

State of the New York Mets

• Can the Mets win in the short term?
• Who is to blame more for the current Mets failure (in 2026) – the manager or the GM?
• How much does a major league GM consider the fanbase when making signing decisions?
• Looking at the Nimmo trade, the non-signing of Alonso, yet spending $760m+ on Juan Soto.
• The greatness of Francisco Lindor
• What will the Mets do in the offseason?

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

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Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

William Liang-Imagn Images

Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.

Note #2: There will be another Mining the News in place of lineups this Friday. More news will come out once teams are back.

American League

Astros

• Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are about to return from the IL.

The return of Blanco and Wesneski could satisfy the club’s starting pitching need, and relievers Bennett Sousa and Kai-Wei Teng could come off the IL immediately after the break.

Starting with Blanco, I need him to show some control once he gets to the majors in order for me to have any faith in him. His career 3.9 BB/9 is a huge red flag, even though he has a 3.45 ERA (4.36 xFIP). A combined 5.16 xFIP in the minors this year doesn’t lead to any confidence in a possible breakout.

The 28-year-old Wesneski has a little more going his way. For his career, he has a 4.01 ERA (4.04 xFIP), 1.16 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9. In 11 IP so far in his rehab, he has a 1.54 ERA (3.94 xFIP) with an 8.5 K/9 and 0.8 BB/9. Read the rest of this entry »

We covered some of the best starting pitchers earlier in the week. Now, we’re covering the best starting pitchers with an average draft position (ADP) outside the top 150 picks in 12-team leagues. These pitchers have been performing better than the draft community expected.

The visual below shows the starting pitchers who have been drafted outside the top 150 picks in 12-team leagues, sorted by their earned value in the first half. If a player has a blank ADP, that means they were undrafted. 

Though Foster Griffin tops the list, I’ve already examined him in a rookie check-in article in mid-June. Kyle Harrison has been helping to win leagues, though he is on the injured list with a forearm injury. We would love to examine more of these starting pitchers (and maybe we will), but today we’ll highlight five.

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Some call it the second half because it’s easier that way, but there is only 40% of the Major League season remaining. Assuming starting pitchers remain healthy and in the rotation, most will start anywhere from 11 to 14 games between now and the end of the season. There is more than enough time to make up some of our pitching category deficiencies in Rotisserie leagues. Let’s dive into some of the starting pitchers who should be helpful in all fantasy formats and help us finish the season strong.

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Fantasy baseball is a stats game, both in terms of scoring (you are literally trying to maximize certain stats) and in terms of building a roster (you use stats to figure out who to roster). But if you play in daily lineups leagues, almost all of the stats we look at are presented in the wrong format for your purposes, particularly for hitters.

When you check out Michael Conforto’s player page, you will see he has 8 HR and a .243 average in 160 PA, which puts him on a 30-HR pace for a full season. You’ll also see him at 3.44 P/G in Ottoneu points leagues. But if you have been moving him in and out of your lineup based on when he does/doesn’t start, and you look at what he has given your team, you’ll see something more like 5 HR and a .223 average, with 4.06 P/G for Ottoneu points leagues. Why has Conforto been better for your team in points leagues (though, to be fair, still not good) and worse in roto?

His starter/substitute splits.

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Building on the bat speed piece from last week, I wanted to explore some deep-cut young finds based on swing length, blast contact rates, and all the rest. It turns out that if you swing fast, swing fast often, and make consistent contact, you are already highly valued, not just in fantasy but in baseball. Sorting these different metrics gives you a pretty similar list of names at the top of a chart.

For the first piece, I intentionally stuck to bat tracking metrics as much as possible, rather than outcomes, to compare the mechanical profiles of young hitters and to see whether we can use that on its own to predict future success. The problem is that the swing data on its own cannot tell the difference between an MVP candidate and a prospect who has been overmatched. Pete Crow-Armstrong sits in the same neighborhood as Marcelo Mayer, and no amount of bat speed or blast rate separates them.

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7/14/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow Our Socials

• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer
• Joe Orrico | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host

YOUTUBE

• Join our Discord for live video feeds of each show and more!
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

TWO TRUTHS & A LIE

Two 2H Breakouts (Outside Top 100 now, will be Top 50 in 2H

• Justin – Colt Keith, Logan Webb
• Joe – Landen Roupp, Heriberto Hernández
• Paul – Steven Kwan (Manny Machado, too), Troy Melton

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Let’s look at starting pitchers who have been performing well in the first half. The average draft position data comes from 12-team leagues in NFBC formats. Meanwhile, the dollar value is the earned value via the FanGraphs Player Rater data. The visual below shows the top 25 starting pitchers sorted by earned value in the first half, including their draft price and results.

While 10 of these 25 pitchers come from outside the top 150 in ADP, today we’ll examine some of the more highly drafted starting pitchers on this list to identify whether they’ll continue their success for the second half, or might be sell high candidates.

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