Angels
• The six-man rotation is staying with Patrick Sandoval and José Suarez in the rotation.
The Angels are expected to use a six-man rotation next year with Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval and José Suarez essentially locks to be part of it.
For those in early season draft-and-holds and best balls, Sandoval and Suarez are reasonable mid to late-round options. Read the rest of this entry »
Another year, another Bold Predictions review! This is an article I typically dread as the success rates usually hover at around 30%. However, this was one of my best years in doing this article and in fantasy in general. So, without further adieu, I present the results of my 2021 Bold Predictions!
10/12/21
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!
Follow us on Twitter
PATREON
INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
When I decided to create my bold predictions back in March my goal was to actually be, well, bold. They are called bold predictions for a reason after all. Once the article was posted there were a lot of comments about my predictions both good and bad and in fact, I had the pleasure of someone calling me the Stephen A. Smith of Fangraphs. I have to admit, it did make me giggle out loud and caused my wife to look at me like a crazy person. I wanted to push the boundaries and create conversation while also supporting my takes and it looks like I accomplished that.
Now let’s look back on these predictions see what we got wrong and right as well as the lessons we learned!
1) Zach Eflin is the Matthew Boyd of 2020.
What I meant by this comparison, back in 2019 Matt Boyd had a fantastic first-half breakout, stumbled in the second half, and still left people excited due to the increase in K%. Plenty of people pegged Matthew Boyd as a fantastic “sleeper” and he only disappointed in 2020 with a 6.71 ERA.
Eflin had a nice little breakout campaign in 2020 where he pitched to the tune of a 3.97 ERA, 3.39 FIP, and 3.50 SIERA. Most notably his strikeout rate rose from 18.3% in 2019 to 28.6% in 2020. I essentially state that his arsenal was suspect and something we couldn’t quite trust. Elfin finished 2021 with 105.2 innings pitched (injury) a 4.17 ERA and a 22.4% strikeout rate. According to Razzball’s player rater, he was worth $-4.9 and only hurt your team.
Record: 1-0
—
2) Aaron Civale is the number two pitcher in Cleveland.
Let’s look at the 2021 stats for Cleveland’s pitcher’s.
Now let’s look at their 2021 dollar values:
I liked this prediction in the first place because I was a little suspect of Plesac’s just because of the super small sample we had of him. I won’t lie I liked the skill set but clearly most of us were wrong. I also thought Civale would fix his sinker location issue and truly break out but that didn’t quite happen either. The wins gave him a big edge here and while this is considered a win I definitely had luck on my side with this one.
Record: 2-0
—
3) The Miami Marlins win the NL East.
Yea this one didn’t turn out so hot. I figured maybe with their pitching they could sneak in a bunch of wins leaning on that but it certainly wasn’t the case. The NL East was easily the worst division in the league but the Marlins still finished 22 games out of first. A clear loss here.
Record 2-1
—
4) Trevor Bauer is not a top 20 pitcher in 2021.
This likely wouldn’t have been correct but due to off-the-field issues, it ended up coming true. We will give me half a point.
Record 2.5-1
—
5) The Toronto Blue Jays have a top-five bullpen.
In my prediction, I mainly pointed out Kirby Yates, Jordan Romano, and Rafael Dolis. Yates ended up not even seeing the field due to injury, Romano became the clear cut closer, and Dolis had a horrific season. But does that mean their bullpen still wasn’t top five?
Some arms did pop up to help out the Blue Jays like Tim Mayza and Adam Cimber but this prediction still fell short. Their bullpen ranked 15th in ERA, 13th in K-BB%, 25th in WAR, and 9th in WHIP. In other words they weren’t even close to being a top five bullpen. On a good note, they only had 18 blown saves, the second-fewest in the league.
Record 2.5-2
—
6) Yusei Kikuchi is a top 30 starter.
Kikuchi started the season off strong, in the first half he pitched 98.1 innings with a 3.48 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. My thinking process behind this prediction was his upside. His first-half numbers truly showed his potential, the increase in velocity and addition of the cutter seemed to help Kikuchi make big strides in 2020.
The second half was a completely different story though as he clearly hit a wall and struggled with the long grueling season. His fastball velocity went from being 96/95 MPH to 94/93 MPH in the second half. This certainly brings into question his durability and one would have to think the Seattle Mariners limit him next season.
Record 2.5-3
—
7) Tyler Glasnow has over a four ERA for the second season in a row.
This is a big loss here. I wrote an article on here about Tyler Glasnow and how the two-pitch mix just wasn’t going to cut it anymore. I knew he was adding the slider but adding a new pitch doesn’t always work or at least work right away. Unfortunately, Glasnow had to get Tommy John surgery and we won’t be seeing much of him anytime soon. He finished 2021 with 88 innings pitched, a 2.66 ERA, and a 0.93 WHIP.
Record 2.5-4
—
8) Mike Minor has a better season than Triston McKenzie.
Coming into 2021, Minor’s fastball velocity was back up and he seemed prime to accumulate a ton of innings. After only a handful of starts, his velocity quickly dipped back down and it lead to a lackluster season as he pitched his way to a 5.05 ERA.
Triston McKenzie seemed to struggle with his fastball velocity in his first MLB stint. In his first few starts, his velocity clocked around 95 MPH and it eventually dipped to just 92 MPH a few starts later. That was a major worry for me and it held true in 2021 as well. His fastball velocity was all over the place, he had a four-start span where his velocity was near 93 MPH. In that span, he had a 1.44 ERA, 1.41 FIP, and 27.3 K-BB%. In his last 3 starts it dipped to 91.9 MPH and in that span, he had an 11.81 ERA, 10.11 FIP, and 1.8 K-BB%.
Mike Minor was going roughly 70 picks later than Triston McKenzie according to 2021 ADP. According to the Razzball player rater Mckenzie finished as the 333rd ranked player with a $-2.8 value. Minor finished as the 315th ranked player with a $-2.2 value. Neither really helped and both disappointed but Minor was indeed more valuable.
Record 3.5-4
—
9) Alec Mills becomes the SP1 for the Chicago Cubs.
This one, to me, was the boldest of all of my predictions. I figured Mills would outproduce Jake Arrieta, Zach Davies, and Trevor Williams easily but the real challenge was surpassing one of the most consistent pitchers in recent history in Kyle Hendricks.
Kyle Hendricks certainly took a surprising step back and all we needed was Alec Mills to pitch halfway decent to make this prediction come true but that didn’t happen. He started the season in AAA and eventually got the call but finished with just 119 innings pitched and a 5.07 ERA.
Record 3.5-5
—
10) The Royals make the playoffs.
I was semi-correct on this prediction, well the half right on my reasoning. I really like their offense with Merrifield, Benintendi, Perez, and Mondesi. But I also thought they had a talented pitching staff. Oof.
“Their pitching staff has some talent to it as well. Danny Duffy can be serviceable as long as he stays healthy. Brad Keller was great last season and is able to take on a big workload. The addition of Mike Minor gives them a veteran presence that is much needed. His velocity is back this spring and he could easily be the SP1 they needed. Brady Singer made strides towards the end of last year by featuring his slider more. Kris Bubic definitely needs some work but has shined at times. They even have Jakob Junis who has a great slider and is working on a new pitch. A lot has to go right here but the talent is there and the solid base of Keller and Minor can be big for them.”
Tough one there for you, Michael. The Royals finished with just 74 wins and came nowhere near making the playoffs. Maybe next year Royals fans! Likely not though.
Record 3.5-6
52-110 (5th in Division; 29th in MLB)
SP Wins: 30 (28th)
RP Wins: 22 (30th)
Saves: 22 (30th)
1+ Save: 8 (Joakim Soria, Tyler Clippard 6, Stefan Crichton 4, J.B. Wendelken 2, Noé Ramirez, Riley Smith, Sean Poppen, Chris Devenski 1)
100+ Ks: 4 (Zac Gallen 139, Merrill Kelly 켈리 130, Madison Bumgarner, Caleb Smith 124)
.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 3 (Ketel Marte .318, Pavin Smith .267, Josh Rojas .264)
65+ Runs: 2 (Rojas 69, Smith 68)
65+ RBI: 1 (Eduardo Escobar 65)
10+ HRs: 7 (Escobar 22, Marte 14, Carson Kelly 13, Smith, Rojas, Daulton Varsho 11, Christian Walker 10)
5+ SBs: 4 (Rojas 9, Nick Ahmed 7, Varsho 6, Locastro 5)
BEST BUY: Josh Rojas
Rojas looked like he was breaking out with an 81-game run from late-April to mid-August during which he hit .306/.384/.502 with 10 HR and 6 SB in 340 PA, but then finished with a .530 OPS in his last 149 PA leaving his full season line a bit underwhelming (102 wRC+). Power/speed bat with triple eligibility (2B/SS/OF) who won’t be super expensive and still carries some upside, even at age-28.
52-110 (5th in Division; 30th in MLB)
SP Wins: 24 (30th)
RP Wins: 28 (26th)
Saves: 26 (28th)
1+ Save: 6 (Cole Sulser, César Valdez 8, Tyler Wells 4, Dillon Tate 3, Paul Fry 2, Adam Plutko 1)
100+ Ks: 2 (John Means 134, Jorge López 112)
.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 1 (Cedric Mullins .291)
65+ Runs: 4 (Mullins 91, Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini 77, Austin Hays 73)
65+ RBI: 3 (Mountcastle 89, Mancini, Hays 71)
10+ HRs: 8 (Mountcastle 33, Mullins 30, Hays 22, Mancini 21, Anthony Santander 18, DJ Stewart 12, Maikel Franco, Pedro Severino 11)
5+ SBs: 2 (Mullins 30, Jorge Mateo 5)
BEST BUY: Anthony Santander
Santander has been averaging about 30-100 over the last three seasons (33 HR/95 RBI per 162 gms since ’19), but he has struggled to stay on the field with just 93 and 110 games in his last two full seasons (2019 and 2021). He still hit the ball with authority this year despite the injuries that piled up (ankle, hamstring, knee). The skills are there for him, it is a matter of staying healthy and finally reaching that 500+ PA level.
Blue Jays
• Nate Pearson pitched with a hernia this year and he’s still being considered as a starting pitching option.
Former No. 1 prospect Nate Pearson is meeting with a doctor today to assess whether he’ll need a procedure to address a sports hernia he pitched through in 2021, though Atkins said the big right-hander felt strong physically as the season ended. Atkins also said that he envisioned an “extended outing, closer to a starter look” for Pearson in ’22.
“We have to factor in workload, factor in development and doing what’s best for him,” Atkins said. “It’s just too hard to say exactly what it will look like, but on the spectrum of things, I hope it looks a lot more like a starter than a reliever, but we’ll be open to all roles and all ways to have him help us win.”
You remember sorting baseball cards, right? You sorted them on anything; career stats, teams, season, jersey color. You got your sticky fingers all over those glossy, fresh pieces of thin cardboard and you just sorted away. Let’s think of a clustering algorithm called k-means clustering as that 8-year-old card sorter, only with a set of instructions. “Hey kid, here’s a bunch of cards from the last month of the season, back in 2020. Rather than your typical stat-lines, these cards show each player’s change in batted-ball and plate discipline from the first half of the month to the second half of the month. Here, take a look at Randy Arozarena”:
Stealing bases continue to be less and less of a priority as baseball evolves in its current iteration but regardless, they remain an equal part of the equation in most rotisserie setups. This makes it more important than ever to find extra ways to find speed in the margins.
With 2021 in the books, I wanted to spend some time on stolen bases, so I’ll start with speed trends, both overall and team-by-team. And then finish up today looking at how some of the 2022 free-agent class might be affected by where they end up signing. In the next piece, I’ll move on to if the value of stolen bases in fantasy has changed and whether we should adjust how we draft for them going forward.
Before we get started, though, will everyone please bow their heads in a moment of silence for baseball thievery, as we’ll begin with a reading of the obituary. Read the rest of this entry »
The Season Wrap-Up Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Ian Kahn
Most memorable moments of the baseball season
Strategy Section
Our successes and failures in 2021
Sandy Alcantara – Is he a top 10 pitcher for 2022?
Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
