Everybody Panic! Pitcher Edition
April 15, 2022
If a lifetime of watching baseball has taught me anything, it’s that you only need about a week to predict how the rest of the season will go. It’s science. Read the rest of this entry »
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1041 – Two Birds, One Stone
by Paul Sporer
April 15, 2022
4/15/22
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!
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- @sporer – Host
- @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer
PATREON
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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS
- Jonathan India (hammy), could miss the wknd
- Mets issues w/COVID
EARLY STANDOUT HITTERS
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
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Boxscore Bits: April 15th, 2022
by Paul Sporer
April 15, 2022
A few thoughts on the games from Thursday’s games:
FOR STARTERS
Thursday Starters
| # | Name | Team | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | TBF | ERA | WHIP | W | vFA (pi) | vSI (pi) | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Musgrove | SDP | 6.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1 | 92.4 | 92 | 10% |
| 2 | Luis Severino | NYY | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 1 | 97.3 | 17% | |
| 3 | Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 1 | 96.1 | 95.7 | 11% |
| 4 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 1 | 95.2 | 6% | |
| 5 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 6.1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 2.84 | 1.26 | 1 | 97 | 97.2 | 18% |
| 6 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | 5.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 3.18 | 1.06 | 0 | 94.3 | 24% | |
| 7 | Walker Buehler | LAD | 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 3.18 | 1.41 | 0 | 95.3 | 95.9 | 13% |
| 8 | Zack Greinke | KCR | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 3.38 | 1.13 | 0 | 89 | 90.1 | 4% |
| 9 | Casey Mize | DET | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 3.60 | 1.60 | 0 | 94 | 93.9 | 5% |
| 10 | Justin Steele | CHC | 4.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 4.15 | 1.62 | 0 | 93.7 | 8% | |
| 11 | Cole Irvin | OAK | 6.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 4.26 | 0.79 | 1 | 91.9 | 91.9 | 10% |
| 12 | Dane Dunning | TEX | 3.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 4.91 | 2.18 | 0 | 89.9 | 9% | |
| 13 | Jimmy Lambert | CHW | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6.00 | 1.00 | 0 | 93.1 | 10% | |
| 14 | Kyle Gibson | PHI | 4.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 7.71 | 1.71 | 0 | 92.8 | 91.8 | 19% |
| 15 | Josh Fleming | TBR | 3.1 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 8.10 | 2.40 | 0 | 91.9 | 90.8 | 18% |
| 16 | Adam Wainwright | STL | 4.1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 8.31 | 2.31 | 0 | 87.9 | 89.2 | 6% |
| 17 | JT Brubaker | PIT | 4.1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 8.31 | 2.08 | 0 | 93.5 | 93.7 | 10% |
| 18 | Kyle Freeland | COL | 5.1 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 8.44 | 2.06 | 0 | 91.3 | 90 | 6% |
| 19 | Charlie Morton | ATL | 5 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 9.00 | 2.40 | 0 | 95.5 | 95.6 | 13% |
| 20 | Joan Adon | WSN | 4.2 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 11.57 | 2.57 | 0 | 94.7 | 4% | |
| 21 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | 3.2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 14.73 | 2.18 | 0 | 97.6 | 13% | |
| 22 | Luis Cessa | CIN | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 27.00 | 5.00 | 0 | 95.7 | 95.2 | 14% |
Roto Riteup: April 15, 2022
by Justin Mason
April 15, 2022
You can’t tell me that this is not a home run.
I think this needs to just be a new thing we do pic.twitter.com/X3Tdsw3hOS
— Caleb Webb (@calebgwebb) April 14, 2022
Bullpen Report: April 15, 2022
The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.
- Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
- Injury News
- Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
- Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
- Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)
Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.
Big Kid Adds (Week 1)
While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named, “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues.
Jhoan Duran (8): The Twins reliever has lights out talent. He has a fastball that averages over 100 mph. His splitter/change is a unicorn with its high velocity and low spin. The only comp I could find was Zack Britton’s sinker from the mid-2010s when Britton was the league’s most dominant closer. A must-add in all 12 team or deeper leagues for teams hoping for Saves.
Tyler Duffey (7): The only person standing in the way of Duran getting the closer’s job is Duffey. Duffey is no slouch with a 2.77 ERA, 10.8 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9. Additionally, he’s been used in high-leverage roles. With Saves scarce, the pair could be added and then the loser dropped once the roles are defined. Read the rest of this entry »
Boxscore Bits: April 14, 2022
by Paul Sporer
April 14, 2022
A few thoughts on the games from on Wednesday, April 13th:
FOR STARTERS
Wednesday Starters
| # | Name | Team | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | TBF | ERA | WHIP | W | vFA (pi) | vSI (pi) | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 | 90.5 | 24% | |
| 2 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | 5.1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0.00 | 0.94 | 0 | 92.4 | 92.1 | 8% |
| 3 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0 | 93.9 | 18% | |
| 4 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0 | 96.1 | 96 | 19% |
| 5 | Josiah Gray | WSN | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 1 | 93.9 | 11% | |
| 6 | Logan Webb | SFG | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 1.13 | 0.50 | 1 | 92.9 | 92.2 | 15% |
| 7 | Frankie Montas | OAK | 6.1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 1.42 | 0.79 | 1 | 96.8 | 95.9 | 16% |
| 8 | Max Scherzer | NYM | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 1.80 | 1.60 | 1 | 95.1 | 15% | |
| 9 | Sean Manaea | SDP | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 0 | 90.5 | 13% | |
| 10 | Framber Valdez | HOU | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 3.00 | 2.33 | 0 | 93.3 | 92.6 | 7% |
| 11 | Max Fried | ATL | 5.1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 3.38 | 1.31 | 0 | 94.3 | 95.1 | 13% |
| 12 | Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 3.60 | 1.00 | 1 | 96.6 | 8% | |
| 13 | Zach Thompson | PIT | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 0 | 93 | 92.3 | 6% |
| 14 | John Means | BAL | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 4.50 | 0.75 | 0 | 91.8 | 8% | |
| 15 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 4.76 | 0.88 | 0 | 97.8 | 19% | |
| 16 | Eduardo Rodriguez | DET | 3.2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 4.91 | 2.18 | 0 | 93.2 | 93.4 | 11% |
| 17 | Dallas Keuchel | CHW | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 5.40 | 1.20 | 1 | 87.9 | 13% | |
| 18 | José Berríos | TOR | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 5.40 | 1.80 | 0 | 93.9 | 93 | 11% |
| 19 | Shane McClanahan | TBR | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 5.79 | 1.07 | 0 | 98 | 18% | |
| 20 | Chris Paddack | MIN | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 6.75 | 1.50 | 0 | 92.6 | 11% | |
| 21 | Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 8.10 | 1.80 | 0 | 92.4 | 91.6 | 9% |
| 22 | Robbie Ray | SEA | 6.1 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 8.53 | 1.89 | 0 | 92.2 | 8% | |
| 23 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 11.25 | 2.50 | 0 | 94.3 | 94.1 | 8% |
| 24 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 14.73 | 3.00 | 0 | 86.7 | 86.1 | 8% |
- Kershaw was perfect through 7, but anyone paying attention knew there was no shot he was going to finish it given his health issues and the fact that it was his first start of the season. He simply wasn’t stretched out to go 100+ pitches and Kershaw knows better than to carelessly push himself and risk the rest of the season. Obviously it’d be great to see him throw a perfecto, but it doesn’t make sense to push well beyond your limit in game 1 of the year.
- Kelly stood tall for a second straight start (this time v. HOU), carrying on from a strong Spring Training (7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 13 K). His velo is up to 92.9 mph (+1.1 over ’21) and he is using his changeup a lot more up. It is up 7 pts in usage to 24% and has been excellent, allowing 1 H w/6 Ks in 13 PA. He has a 2-start (at WAS, NYM) next week and will be a popular pickup in many formats. I’m definitely eyeing him in 12s and 15s, possibly even 10s depending who I’m cutting.
- McKenzie’s season debut in relief was unsettling, but it turned out to be a blip as opposed to reason for major concern. His velo was back up to 93.9 mph and he was great for 4 IP.
- Burnes assuaged any Opening Day concerns by looking like the stud drafted in the 1st round in Baltimore.
- Despite a 56% GB rate, Gray kept the ball in the park en route to a strong outing despite 3 BB. The tough part with Gray will be knowing when to sit him since HRs can pop up against any team. He gets a 2-step against ARI and SF next week, so he is a start for me despite a tough Giants team in that second start.
- Valdez didn’t have any fastball command, particularly his 4-seamer (he throws a sinker, too), which led to 5 BB and an early day against what should’ve been a great opponent. The start didn’t hurt too badly, but a trip to ARI is usually a prime spot.
- Fried was nickeled and dimed, allowing 6 1B and a double, and it would’ve been nice to see more Ks against a weaker opponent, but this just a run-of-the-mill fine outing.
- Thompson should have bouts of streamer usefulness, especially once he is fully stretched out. He gets a 2-step at MIL and at CHC next week, so I expect him to be a mid-tier option in FAAB this weekend.
- Means leaving with forearm tightness is rough. Hold out for news before making any moves, but if he is shelved for the injury, I think he becomes a cut in leagues without IL spots and perhaps in spots with just 1-2 slots, too, though that will depend a lot more on your roster.
- A 2-out throwing error by Jeimer Candelario in the top of the 4th opened the floodgates for BOS as they ripped three straight doubles off E-Rod and spoiled his start. There is nothing actionable off this start.
- 3 HRs are the only reason Cole’s numbers aren’t where they “should” be. His velo is at 98.1 mph and swinging strike rate at 18%, both career highs. I’m quite literally 0% concerned.
- Berrios bounced back after a painful season debut. He’s fine and an all-formats must-start.
- A rough 3rd inning capped by a Sean Murphy 3-R HR spoiled an otherwise great outing by McClanahan. He still fanned 8 and went 19 pitches more than his first outing so he’s building up. He looks great and I’m very excited about him this year.
- Paddack’s velo was down over 2 mph and I’m not sure he should be rostered in anything but the absolute deepest formats.
- Curious if anyone saw Nola’s start, I didn’t get a chance to, but it looks like he lost command of the fastballs (4-seamer and sinker), leading to the 3 BB and ending his day early. No concerns here.
- Was it the nasty weather in Chicago that hampered Ray? It’s a great opponent, too, but I wouldn’t worry too much if you’re invested.
- Lodolo flopped in his debut but has a 2-step next week. I’m wondering if the dud outing will depress the price enough or will people just see a 2-step (at SD, STL) from a stud prospect and jump? I think he’s worth going for in 12s or deeper right now. 10s are borderline and would 100% depend on the cut. One bad start isn’t taking me off him completely.
- Hendricks getting smoked in PIT is rough. A 3-R shot by Ben Gamel was crusher in a 7-hit parade. He lives on a thin margin. It’ll be a risky 2-step next week v. TB and PIT.
VLAD GOES SUPER SAIYAN
The Yankees thought a busted finger could stop Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but they were wrong! He already had a homer when that happened and ripped two more after the finger injury. He added a double in for good measure, going 4-for-4 with 3 HR, 4 RBI, and 3 R.
MILLER STAYS HOT, TAGS 2
Owen Miller came into Tuesday’s game with three straight multi-hit efforts, giving him a .500 AVG and 1.342 OPS. He got his fourth with a pair of homers and a single, elevating him to .524 AVG and 1.593 OPS so far. Three of these four games have been 3 H efforts, too. So is there anything here with Miller or just a bananas .529 BABIP and 40% HR/FB rate sustaining him? Obviously, he isn’t going to be anywhere near this good, but he has usurped Bobby Bradley at 1B starting the last four games there and with playing time, there is some deep league appeal here. When he was graded by the prospect team last year, he got just a 40-hit tool, but with a 55 future. He appears to be improving that aspect of his game and at least hinting at the higher end of that skill early on with a 9% K and 4% SwStr rate. He feels like someone who can hit .260 with 15 HR if he maintains the playing time which definitely has deep league viability.
STOLEN BASES
- Myles Straw 1 (4)
- Jose Altuve 1 (2)
- Cooper Hummel 1 (1)
- Tyler Naquin 1 (1)
- Trea Turner 1 (1)
- Geraldo Perdomo 1 (1)
WTWT
Here is What To Watch Today for Wednesday, April 14th:
- Casey Mize could be looking into his future in a match against Zack Greinke.
- Brandon Woodruff looks to rebound and Adam Wainwright will likely get a million groundballs.
- Sandy Alcantara will get a tough match against Philly.
- Shohei Day!!
- Charlie Morton v. Joe Musgrove could be the matchup of the day.
- How will Luis Severino hold up v. the Blue Jays?
- Always excited to watch Walker Buehler throw.
Beat the Shift Podcast – Predictions Episode w/ Scott Pianowski
by Ariel Cohen
April 14, 2022
The Predictions Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Scott Pianowski
Strategy Section
- 2022 Draft Season Wrap-Up
- Younger players over boring vets
- Reliable pitching
- It’s less about the player information advantages, and more about the game play.
- What do you look for / watch closely for early in the season?
- Roles
- Manegerial tendencies
- Lineup
- Bullpen
- Stolen base attempts
- Platoon splits
- Pitchers
- Velocity
- Walk and strikeout rates
- Don’t look at pitch count
- Which baseball is the MLB using?
- How quickly can you trust the hot/cold player starts?
- Regression – Underperforming players vs overperforming players in terms of correction time
Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Bullpen Report: April 14, 2022
The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.
- Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
- Injury News
- Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
- Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
- Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)
Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.
Mining the News (4/13/22)
The in-season Mining the News will generally be focused on players who could be available on the waiver or could be dropped. There will be little to nothing on the likes of Gerrit Cole and Mike Trout. I just don’t have the time to grind out the information on players who, no matter what, will just remain in a fantasy team’s lineup.
American League
Astros
• Chas McCormick and Jose Siri will be sharing the centerfield job.
McCormick started against right-handers and Siri against lefties, but Baker didn’t commit to that going forward.
“Just depends on who I think the matchup is best for and what kind of defense that we need,” he said. “They’re both going to play. Everybody is going to play here. I don’t like guys going too long without playing.”