Beat the Shift Podcast – Predictions Episode w/ Scott Pianowski

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April 14, 2022

The Predictions Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Pianowski

Strategy Section

  • 2022 Draft Season Wrap-Up
    • Younger players over boring vets
    • Reliable pitching
    • It’s less about the player information advantages, and more about the game play.
  • What do you look for / watch closely for early in the season?
    • Roles
    • Manegerial tendencies
      • Lineup
      • Bullpen
      • Stolen base attempts
      • Platoon splits
    • Pitchers
      • Velocity
      • Walk and strikeout rates
      • Don’t look at pitch count
    • Which baseball is the MLB using?
  • How quickly can you trust the hot/cold player starts?

Over-reaction Theater

Bonifide or Bonifacio

Playing in the New York market

Bold Predictions

  • Hitter Predictions, Pitcher Predictions, Award Predictions, Team Predictions, etc.

Shea Stadium Memories

  • Eastern seaboard radio broadcasting memories

Waiver Wire / Pitcher Preview

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.

 

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Ariel is the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. His ATC Projections were ranked as the #1 most accurate projection system over the past three years (2019-2021). Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). He is a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Follow Ariel on Twitter at @ATCNY.

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Ian.SoCal
2 years ago

arraez vs. kwan minior league ISO numbers indicate Kwan is more than just an arraez. he is bonafide in my book. Kwan had a higher ISO in AA than julio rodriguez. Not saying he will hit more homers, but Kwan has some pop to get extra base hits, unlike arraez.

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Pat Listachiomember
2 years ago
Reply to  Ian.SoCal

I’m curious what value he might have with a best case scenario line of say .320 75 rbi 100 runs 15 hr 10 sb. That’s just not a shape of production we usually see… I’ve heard the comp to Brantley, which seems approximately right. Is that a top-50 guy? probably? It would be the best case scenario, but on the other hand his floor is pretty high in that he’ll at least be providing average and some runs. Seems like he’d be an ideal fit on a roster with a lot of low avg bopping going on.

15 hr seems rich but I figure he’ll run up close to that just given the sheer number of batted ball events.

1
Ariel Cohenmember
2 years ago
Reply to  Pat Listachio

Hard to peg Kwan (or anyone) as a > .300 batter. And no MLB track record to do so.

He’s Bonafide in that he won’t go to zero, but expectations should be a lot lower. I used Arraez/Fletcher as a comp – but the upside is Michael Brantely.

3
Ian.SoCal
2 years ago
Reply to  Ariel Cohen

I like the Brantley comp.

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Ian.SoCal
2 years ago
Reply to  Pat Listachio

ya 15 hr seems rich, but I think the extra base hits will be there. What’s interesting is kwan could have a higher slugging % than Gallo come end of the season given the contact skills. I would even bet he will if I could.

0