Big Kid Adds (Week 1)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named, “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues.

Jhoan Duran (8): The Twins reliever has lights out talent. He has a fastball that averages over 100 mph. His splitter/change is a unicorn with its high velocity and low spin. The only comp I could find was Zack Britton’s sinker from the mid-2010s when Britton was the league’s most dominant closer. A must-add in all 12 team or deeper leagues for teams hoping for Saves.

Tyler Duffey (7): The only person standing in the way of Duran getting the closer’s job is Duffey. Duffey is no slouch with a 2.77 ERA, 10.8 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9. Additionally, he’s been used in high-leverage roles. With Saves scarce, the pair could be added and then the loser dropped once the roles are defined.

Chad Pinder (7): Pinder is a reasonable add for the simple reason that he’s playing every day and hitting near the top of the lineup (1st, 4th, and 6th spots). His power production (2 HR, .348 ISO) so far will keep him in the lineup but a 48% K% is a major red flag.

Jurickson Profar (6): He’s been on fire (.353/.476/.765), so the add is reasonable. His production level should be expected from any major league hitter who has seen fastballs that average under 91 mph 57% of the time. If a batter can’t hit those, what are they doing in the majors? Nothing else stands out pointing to breakout. The hot bat should at least get him a week or two more of full-time at-bats.

Brad Keller (6): Keller was throwing harder and had a new changeup that I just wrote about. Decent add.

Nico Hoerner (6): He’s hit ninth in all five games so far with just a .647 OPS with 1 HR and 1 SB. Showing a little power and speed is nice, but the major factor I could see for the adds is the upcoming weekend series in Colorado. One reason to keep an eye on him after this start is that he set a career-best max exit velocity at 108 mph.

Daniel Lynch (6): Lynch came into the week scheduled to make two starts (@ STL, vs DET), but yesterday’s rainout pushed back his start for a two-step next week. His first start was a mixed bag. The good was seven strikeouts and just one walk in five innings. The bad was allowing three homers and six earned runs.

The bad results will keep his costs down for a couple of weeks. In deeper leagues where I have the roster space, I’d add him with no intention of starting him. I’d see how those two starts go and then re-evaluate. I’m doing that in a couple of leagues with Michael Wacha and Taylor Hearn. If a person doesn’t add them early and Lynch shoves, the price will go through the roof.

Hansel Robles (6): The presumed closer, Matt Barnes isn’t being used in the highest leverage spots (6th inning for both appearances). The closer’s role looks to be up for grabs and Robles is as fine of a candidate as any in the Sox’s bullpen.

Justin Steele (6): Steele took a step forward by shutting out the Brewers over five innings with five strikeouts in his first start. He made a pitch mix change that may have moved heads. He upped his four-seamer (career 12% SwStr%) and slider (13% SwStr%) usage from 62% to 87%.

Jose Siri (5): I’m not 100% sure the reasoning behind this add, but the Astros seem to be setting up a center field platoon. Siri has started against the lefties and Chas McCormick against all righties. Both aren’t hitting (Siri .462 OPS, McCormick .485 OPS) so I don’t see gaining an advantage just yet.

Emilio Pagán (4): Another arm in the unsettled Twins bullpen. I’d hedge my bets with Duran and Duffey.

Roansy Contreras (4): Contreras is going to be hard to value. He is talented as I note in my deep starter preview. He started the season in the minors but got recalled to throw 1.2 relief innings. Even though he didn’t get any strikeouts, he did have his 96-mph fastball and a 16% SwStr%. His role is going to be key for his fantasy value moving forward.

Daulton Jefferies (4): I was interested in Jefferies after seeing his Spring Training’s strikeouts to walks of 14:1. I watch his first start and even though it was a shutout, I came away unimpressed. His average fastball velocity was down 2 mph but that might be expected since he mainly threw out of the bullpen last season. He didn’t miss any bats (6% SwStr%) and relied on a .143 BABIP. Deep streamer for me.

Spencer Strider (4): While he has been a starter, he’s, for now, throwing multiple innings out of the bullpen. In five innings so far, he has eight strikeouts and just one run allowed. I have a tough time valuing these elite middle relievers (see Roansy Contreras) who provide great ratios, OK strikeouts but aren’t being used in enough high leverage situations to get Wins and Saves.

Robinson Canó (4): Cano had started in three of the first four games and was hitting .273/.333/.273 before FAAB for these leagues ran. He’s started one game since then going zero for four. With Jeff McNeil hitting .281/.333/.406, regular at-bats for Cano might dry up fast.

Francisco Mejía (4): So far, Mike Zunino and he are starting every other game. Both are hitting with Mejia’s triple slash at .391/.417/.565. He needs to be added in all two-catcher leagues since he’s getting some counting stats and will not be a batting average drag.

Erick Fedde (4): Fedde is interesting in a 2021 Wade Miley sort of way. No one wants to tout him, but when the season is over, he will have provided good value. Because of a 6.29 second-half ERA last year, some changes weren’t obvious. His K%-BB% improved from 11% to 16%. Other starters with a 16% K%-BB% in 2021 were Anthony DeSclafani, Lance McCullers, and Triston McKenzie. He improved by moving away from his sinker (5% SwStr%) and to his slider (16% SwStr%). Those changes stuck and he struck out five batters in just as many innings in his first start.

Tyler Anderson (4): Anderson seemed destined to eat innings on a bad team during free agency. Instead, he was given a new life to be part of the Dodgers rotation … kind of. In his first appearance, he threw four innings in relief of Tony Gonsolin. Anderson reworked his pitch mix moving away from four-seam and throwing his cutter and changeup more. He struck out four batters while allowing just one run. I see Anderson and Fedde being valued similarly going forward with Anderson getting a boost because his team plays some defense.