Last week we got a little more granular in evaluating our pitching matchups, focusing on how teams have fared against left-handed pitchers, both in terms of overall offense, as well as against individual pitch types. So, in the name of symmetry, let’s move on to right-handers this week, trying to identify weaknesses for matchups this weekend and in Week 19 of fantasy.
No time to waste, let’s go. Read the rest of this entry »
The Mets & LABR Update Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Adam Ronis
Softball Team
New York Mets
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MLB doesn’t do a lot right, but I love this.
Players appearing from the corn will always be awesome. #MLBatFieldofDreams pic.twitter.com/saZcWzCnOh
— MLB (@MLB) August 12, 2022
It’s August 11th. Every team has played at least 110 games leaving just about a third of the season left at most.
That is still plenty of time to make a lot of movement in your standings, but the margin for error has slimmed considerably and for those of you out of the money/in the back half of your standings it is time to start making decisions that directly impact your standings as opposed to simply acquiring the best talent available. Threading the needle and making considerable gains in all 10 categories (assuming a standard 5×5 setup for this discussion) is unlikely in most cases. It’s time to start narrowing the focus and making some tough cuts.
On this past weekend’s On The Wire Podcast, there was a discussion surrounding Esteury Ruiz stolen base numbers and the effect of the minor league pitch clock. The gist of the situation can be taken from this Tucker Davidson tweet thread.
Some Take Aways From the newly installed pitch clock. I’ve made 3 starts with it and each time it’s been a different experience. Overall not a fan. Let’s talk about the good and the bad. (Thread) @jjcoop36 @JeffPassan
— Tucker Davidson (@tucktuck6) April 29, 2022
The rate of stolen bases is up in the minors as soon as they implemented the change. With the numbers up, I wanted to calculate a simple rule to see how much I should expect a hitter’s stolen base rate to change once promoted, especially rabbits like Ruiz.
For the calculations, needed to set some ground rules. I limited my sample to this season’s hitters who stole four or more bases in AAA. Additionally, they had to go on and have 30 MLB plate appearances. In the end, 40 players met the requirements. I know the sample isn’t the biggest, but I’m just looking at how a hitter’s stolen base rates should change.
For the first test, I compared the stolen base attempt rate ((SB+CS)/(1B+BB+HBP)) in AAA and the majors. In AAA, the median stolen base rate among these guys was 19.5% and it dropped to 10.8% in the majors. When comparing the ratio change (MLB rate/AAA rate) it worked out to 53.5%. So a hitter’s stolen base rate should drop about 50%.
The next test was to look at the success rate. In AAA, this group had an 80.2% success rate and it dropped to 72.1% in the majors. A success of 80% would help a team while 72% hurts their chances of winning.
One final test, what was stolen base per plate appearance change. This value is a quick rule of thumb that takes into account attempts, success, and changes in on-base rate. This value works that the MLB rate is 43% of the AAA numbers.
So going back to Ruiz, here are his expected stolen base rates knowing what he did in AAA.
| SB Stats | AAA | MLB Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| SB Rate | 50% | 27% |
| Success Rate | 85% | 77% |
| SB/PA | 16.2% | 7.0% |
| SB/600PA | 97 | 42 |
Here are the stolen base per 600 PA values for our projection systems.
| Projection | SB/600 |
|---|---|
| ZiPS | 35 |
| Steamer | 40 |
| FGDC | 42 |
| THE BAT | 31 |
| THE BAT X | 37 |
His projections are close but just a little lower than the value I found. Maybe I should just follow the projections.
Transcript is now live!
| 1:01 |
: Hello everyone! How about that insane night of baseball last night?? Just so many electric games for a random Tuesday in August!! |
| 1:01 |
: Sewald or baustista ROS? 10tewm points league |
| 1:03 |
: Bautista is the THE guy for Baltimore, whereas Sewald is more like a 85-90% guy |
| 1:03 |
: India or Segura ROS in a 5×5 12’er? |
| 1:03 |
: Segura for me. Not 100% out on India despite the tough year, but just have always loved Segura |
| 1:04 |
: You buying Detmers’ recent performance? |
The call is just as good as the play!
What. Just. Happened. pic.twitter.com/nxq15ldxmB
— MLB (@MLB) August 10, 2022
While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more of these leagues: Read the rest of this entry »
8/9/22
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This is art:
Chariots of Vogelbach pic.twitter.com/bt45pS3yKh
— Spencer Wisch (@SpencerWisch) August 7, 2022
