Here is today’s chat transcript:

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We now go live to the New York Mets front office:

On the Agenda

1. Making Moves
2. Bumps and Bruises
3. Comeback Trail
4. Streaming Pitchers

Making Moves

The weekend started with the Dodgers moving to shore up their oft-injured pitching staff, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox for Trayce Thompson, Jordan Leasure, and Nick Nastrini. Lynn will make his debut in style on Tuesday with a prime matchup against Oakland; or, at least it would be prime given a previous (good) version of Lynn, who has a 6.47 ERA (5.22 FIP) and 1.46 WHIP over 21 starts in 2023. “Dodgers fix pitchers” will need to do a lot of work for a guy who has most recently allowed a total of 13 ER in his previous two starts.

If their performance on the field wasn’t a big enough clue, the Mets officially raised their white flag with a trade of David Robertson to the Marlins for two Rookie-level prospects. Robertson picked up his first Save on Sunday and is a key addition for the Marlins to continue their playoff push, while the Mets can now dream of their new-and-improved 2028 competitive window.

In other Mets domino news, it turns out that the famously competitive (and known grade-A red-ass) Max Scherzer didn’t actually come to the Mets to be a part of a rebuild and was reportedly none too pleased about the “new” direction New York is taking. One talk with the “brass” later and Mad Max is now a Ranger, waiving his no-trade clause to join a team with actual championship aspirations. Scherzer traveled to Texas along with (I presume) a suitcase stuffed with $36 million, with the Rangers sending infield prospect (and Ronald brother) Luisangel Acuña to New York. Scherzer is expected to make his debut on Thursday against a White Sox roster that might somehow be even worse post-deadline.

For anyone not fluent in Scherzer red-assery revenge-mode, this almost certainly ends with Chicago getting hit by a truck.

But what about Justin Verlander? The rumors are swirling that he could be next to abandon the ol’ apple but the Mets also reportedly value Verlander much higher than Scherzer and currently aren’t willing to ship him out with the same sack of cash. I mean, why would they trade him? After all, GM Billy Epler just said New York isn’t punting on 2024 and all they’re doing is improving their farm system. Bah-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha. Aren’t you proud of me for making it through that whole sentence without laughing? Please, Billy, tell me more about your 2024 aspirations…We’re all dying to hear them.

Third in the AL West and sixth in Wildcard, the Angels continue to “go for it”, ruining the fantasy value of C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk in the process. Cron and Grichuk head out of the thin air of Colorado in exchange for a pair of LA’s top-20 prospects in RHP Jake Madden (#7) and LHP Mason Albright (#18). Cron will slide into his normal spot at first, mercifully displacing the ghost of Mike Moustakas, while Grichuk will shore up an outfield that has recently been utilizing a Cabbage.

The St. Louis fire sale is in full swing:

Jordan Montgomery joins a Rangers rotation that just refuses to stop expanding, going to Texas (with Chris Stratton in the sidecar) in exchange for an addition to St. Louis’s quickly increasing collection of prospect quarters, getting Tekoah Roby, Thomas Saggese, and John King. The funniest thing about this return might be the classic STL thirst trap that Eric Logenhagen just laid out in his latest analysis on the trade:

Saggese has a very old school baseball vibe about him: no batting gloves; a simple, wristy swing that sprays fastballs the other way; and sound infield defense reliant on effort and feel more than athleticism.

Nothing, and I mean nothing, is a surer way of getting the Cardinals all hot and bothered than hearing about a combination of no batting gloves with more effort than athleticism. Noth. Ing.

Jordan Hicks leaves behind the 100-degree heatwave St. Louis was stuck in for a week, heading now to the Great White North of Canada and the greener grasses of Toronto. Hicks and his 5.2 BB/9 will likely join a committee of closers for the Blue Jays for the time being, as incumbent Jordan Romano (lower back) was recently placed on the IL. But once Romano comes back, Hicks the setup guy should be yet another solid gear in Toronto’s excellent bullpen.

(Probably still) Coming Soon to a Team Near You: Jack Flaherty, Giovanny Gallegos, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson.

All you Cardinals haters might be laughing now but just you’s wait until St. Louis is right back to doing what they do best in the Mozeliak Era – winning upwards of 90 games and being very competitive in the NL Central race. Just. You’s. Wait.

Bumps and Bruises

Taylor Ward, unfortunately, took a baseball to the face over the weekend and could miss the rest of the season after being placed on the 60-day IL.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 had to leave Sunday’s game after injuring his shoulder while sliding into home. Consider him day-to-day but manager Bob Melvin has already announced he’s likely to miss today’s opener at Colorado.

J.D. Martinez is set to undergo an MRI after his hamstring forced him out of Sunday’s lineup. No timetable will be known until after the imaging but it’s probably not a good sign that manager Dave Roberts said Martinez was unable to run or swing a bat.

Will Smith left Sunday’s game after getting hit on the elbow in the first inning but the X-rays fortunately came back negative. Consider him day-to-day.

Mookie Betts (ankle) missed his second game in a row with soreness but will get an extra day of healing with the Dodgers having an off-day on Monday.

Anthony DeSclafani (flexor strain) was placed on the 15-day IL and will be shut down from throwing for at least a few weeks. IE. Goodbye, remaining fantasy usefulness in 2023.

Alex Kirilloff gets hot, Alex Kirilloff gets hurt. This is how things go. Kirilloff came out of the ASB blazing, hitting 4 HR in a six-game stretch but will now head to the IL with a right shoulder strain. The good news is, it’s not his wrist?

Comeback Trail

Brandon Woodruff will make his third (and possibly final) rehab start on Tuesday at Triple-A (Nashville), reaching 52 pitches in his most recent appearance for High-A (Wisconsin). If all goes well, this would line up Woodruff for a return to the Milwaukee rotation for a deadline-enhanced, spicy, little two-step next week, getting an ever-depleted Colorado team away from Coors before going on the road to face the White Sox.

Nestor Cortes (shoulder) will also make his third (and possibly final) rehab start this week and could rejoin the Yankees rotation early next week for their series with the White Sox.

Clayton Kershaw came out of a three-inning sim game on Saturday but will need at least one more outing on Thursday before he’ll be able to rejoin the Dodgers rotation. If all remains well, we could see him return sometime next week, possibly in Arizona.

Nathan Eovaldi (forearm) is expected to return after only a minimum stay on the IL, with manager Bruce Bochy saying on Sunday he expects Eovaldi back when first eligible on August 11 to face the Giants. Once Eovaldi returns, rotation decisions will be forced; he and Scherzer are locks but there are only three more spots for Jon Gray, Martín Pérez, Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney, and Jordan Montgomery.

Jonathan India (plantar fasciitis) and the Reds are hopeful he’ll only require a minimum IL stint after joining the list on Sunday. He’ll be first eligible on August 8. In his absence, Christian Encarnanician-Strand should continue to see regular at-bats.

Streaming Pitchers

Streaming Pitcher for Today: What is, none? Correct! The answer was, who should you stream between Jake Irvin (vs MIL), Noah Syndergaard (@HOU), and Austin Gomber (vs SDP)?

High-Risk Streamer for Today: See above.

Streamer for Tomorrow: Ben Lively 라이블리, LAA @CHC

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Recent Top 150 SP Rankings

—

7:30	Jeff Zimmerman:

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7/30/23

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @justinmasonfwfb – Host/Producer
• @jasoncollette – Host

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

Notable Transactions/News/Rumors

• Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly traded to the Dodgers
• Kendall Graveman traded to Houston
  • Who closes in Chicago?
• Max Scherzer to the Rangers
• Trevor Story could return next week
• Taylor Ward to the IL with facial fractures
• Jonah Heim to the IL
  • Mitch Garver

FAAB

• Marco Luciano
• Matt Wallner
• Oscar Gonzalez
• Masyn Winn
• Yimi García
• Robert Suarez
• Giovanny Gallegos
• Steven Matz

—

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment below with fantasy questions.

You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! With a standard $10 ad-free membership or yearlong $60 ad-free membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors while gaining access to dark & classic theme modes, RosterResource Excel exports, and the optional removal of photos on the homepage.

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Approximately 54 minutes of joyous analysis.

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In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

7/28/23

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Lucas Giolito to LAA
  • Jared Walsh DFA’d
  • Edgar Quero to CWS
• Amed Rosario to LAD
  • For Thor
• Gabriel Arias to SS
• Enrique Hernández back to LAD
• David Robertson & Jorge López to MIA – will either close?
  • Mets backfill – Adam Ottavino/Brooks Raley 레일리
• Carlos Santana to MIL

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

We all knew this season would be different. New rules have changed the accumulation of statistics for some players slightly and we knew that would happen during the draft season. We didn’t know exactly what we should be doing about it. If everyone is stealing more bases, then who do you draft? Ronald Acuña Jr., that’s who.

Since the 2011 season, only nine players have finished the year with at least 50 stolen bases and only four players have finished with at least 60. Dee Strange-Gordon stole 64 bases in 2014 and 60 bases in 2017, Jonathan Villar stole 62 in 2016,  and Michael Bourn stole 61 in 2011. This season, in 2023, both Ronald Acuña Jr. (78) and Esteury Ruiz (67) are on pace (Games Played %) to join the list. If Acuña keeps pace, he’ll be only the fourth player this century to steal at least 70 bases, joining José Reyes (78 in 2007), Scott Podsednik (70 in 2004), and Jacoby Ellsbury (70 in 2009).

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