Here is today’s chat transcript:
Read the rest of this entry »

Now that one month of the season is in the books, it’s a fine time to check which hitters have improved their projections the most. To do this, I’ll refer to OOPSY rest of season (ROS) projections, a system I introduced at FanGraphs this offseason. OOPSY ROS is updated each day. Even though I focus on OOPSY ROS in this article, most of the referenced players have improved their projections across the different systems available at FanGraphs. For each player, I’ll also offer commentary on where I’d draft them in a standard 15-team Main Event league that was starting today, informed by a healthy mix of the FanGraphs auction calculator using OOPSY ROS and vibes.

Bear in mind that, across all projection systems, pre-2025 data still weighs much more heavily than 2025 data as pre-2025 covers a much larger sample of data. In fact, a single season typically never comprises more than half of the weight in a projection system, as projection systems usually weigh at least three years of historical data. Nonetheless, enough of the season is now in the books for certain players to have meaningfully altered their projections. The numbers referenced in this piece were collected on April 26th. I’ll take a look at pitchers in my next piece.

Read the rest of this entry »

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th — a little earlier than last yr), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th which is still a pretty small sample, but we can start attacking some cold lineups or be more careful with those performing well so far), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

No commentary on Monday’s board, but happy to answer any questions in the comments below!

—
Read the rest of this entry »

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

Below are the latest pitcher playing time projection changes since last Friday. As always, a lot of reliever shuffling!

Read the rest of this entry »

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th — a little earlier than last yr), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th which is still a pretty small sample, but we can start attacking some cold lineups or be more careful with those performing well so far), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

—

Read the rest of this entry »

• Lance Brozdowski covered some lowly rostered arms, Ryan Gusto, Sean Newcomb, Emerson Hancock, and Tomoyuki Sugano. Here is a bit on Gusto.

Aesthetically, he has an odd “look” on the mound, stepping crossfire with average extension into his release, paired with an average release height. He moved toward the 3B side of the rubber late last season and has stuck with positioning this season. This makes me wonder whether the Astros were trying to optimize something horizontally in terms of his approach, or if his stride direction is connected somehow to his fastball vert increase. I had no idea who Gusto was before today’s outing, and I’m now intrigued. It’s a deep mix, 2 strikeable pitches per handedness, put-away pitches versus righties. The Astros remain good at developing pitchers.

This is just a reminder to follow Lance’s Substack, where he writes about pitcher changes on nearly a daily basis. Read the rest of this entry »

Pitchers can change. Pitchers can change. Pitchers can change. If you don’t believe that, read those first three sentences aloud, preferably in a loud voice in a public space. Hopefully, it will be heard by a fellow baseball lover, and boom, you have a new friend to debate the topic with. You can chat about whether changes in the way pitchers approach opposite-handed hitters matter in the grand scheme of the season. In this article, I’ll present five pitchers from each matchup combination who have increased their strikeout rates against opposite-handed hitters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th — a little earlier than last yr), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th which is still a pretty small sample, but we can start attacking some cold lineups or be more careful with those performing well so far), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

—
Read the rest of this entry »

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »