Starting Pitcher Chart – July 1st, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.
Last night at my sister’s watching Oreo (check yesterday’s SP Chart if you’re not sure who I’m referring to!) so please forgive me with one more no-commentary board… it’s hard to leave that little nugget alone for more than 2-3 minutes at a time when he’s not sleeping. Back home tomorrow and of course, happy to answer any questions in the comments as always (even when there’s a full commentary board)!
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Starter Notes July 1, 2025
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Skenes | PIT v STL | x | x | x | 106 | 2.12 | 0.91 | 20% | 9th |
| 2 | Max Fried | NYY at TOR | x | x | x | 108 | 1.92 | 0.94 | 20% | 8th |
| 3 | Jacob deGrom | TEX v BAL | x | x | x | 95 | 2.08 | 0.88 | 20% | 12th |
| 4 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD v CHW | x | x | x | 89 | 2.61 | 1.05 | 20% | 30th |
| 5 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI v SDP | x | x | x | 93 | 2.79 | 1.16 | 19% | 23rd |
| 6 | Nick Pivetta | SDP at PHI | x | x | x | 91 | 3.36 | 1.03 | 21% | 10th |
| 7 | Joe Ryan | MIN at MIA | x | x | x | 91 | 2.86 | 0.89 | 24% | 23rd |
| 8 | NYM v MIL | x | x | x | 88 | 2.97 | 1.24 | 11% | 22nd | |
| 9 | Matthew Boyd | CHC v CLE | x | x | x | 91 | 2.65 | 1.10 | 17% | 28th |
| 10 | MIL at NYM | x | x | x | 93 | 2.90 | 1.13 | 17% | 5th | |
| 11 | Kevin Gausman | TOR v NYY | x | x | x | 94 | 4.21 | 1.06 | 17% | 3rd |
| 12 | DET at WSN | W | x | x | 84 | 4.80 | 1.23 | 18% | 21st | |
| 13 | Shane Baz | TBR v ATH | x | x | 90 | 4.37 | 1.26 | 13% | 11th | |
| 14 | Edward Cabrera | MIA v MIN | x | x | 64 | 3.78 | 1.37 | 14% | 14th | |
| 15 | Colton Gordon | HOU at COL | x | x | 40 | 3.98 | 1.30 | 19% | 27th | |
| 16 | Brady Singer | CIN at BOS | x | x | 85 | 4.31 | 1.33 | 11% | 18th | |
| 17 | Michael Lorenzen | KCR at SEA | x | 88 | 4.91 | 1.38 | 12% | 8th | ||
| 18 | Zac Gallen | ARI v SFG | x | 97 | 5.75 | 1.41 | 11% | 19th | ||
| 19 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH at TBR | x | 92 | 4.30 | 1.24 | 11% | 17th | ||
| 20 | Tyler Anderson | LAA at ATL | x | 85 | 4.41 | 1.37 | 10% | 20th | ||
| 21 | Andre Pallante | STL at PIT | x | 87 | 4.43 | 1.35 | 8% | 29th | ||
| 22 | Gavin Williams | CLE at CHC | 80 | 3.68 | 1.43 | 10% | 4th | |||
| 23 | Shane Smith | CHW at LAD | 74 | 3.38 | 1.27 | 11% | 1st | |||
| 24 | Richard Fitts | BOS v CIN | 25 | 4.68 | 1.28 | 12% | 7th | |||
| 25 | ATL v LAA | W | x | x | 90 | 3.70 | 1.26 | 16% | 24th | |
| 26 | Hayden Birdsong | SFG at ARI | 56 | 4.13 | 1.38 | 13% | 2nd | |||
| 27 | Emerson Hancock | SEA v KCR | 71 | 5.30 | 1.42 | 8% | 27th | |||
| 28 | WSN v DET | 79 | 5.65 | 1.47 | 12% | 13th | ||||
| 29 | Brandon Young | BAL at TEX | 12 | 7.11 | 1.97 | 3% | 28th | |||
| 30 | Chase Dollander | COL v HOU | 62 | 6.06 | 1.43 | 8% | 20th |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
2-START CHART
2-Start Board for Week of June 30th
| RANK | PITCHER | TYPE | MATCHUPS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | Pitch+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 1 | SDP/CIN | 99 | 2.55 | 0.93 | 26% | 108 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 1 | CIN/at WAS | 109.1 | 2.06 | 1.02 | 24% | 97 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 1 | at ARI/at ATH | 107.1 | 2.52 | 1.14 | 22% | 111 |
| 4 | Max Fried | 1 | at TOR/at NYM | 108 | 1.92 | 0.94 | 20% | 104 |
| 5 | Carlos Rodón | 1 | at TOR/at NYM | 101.2 | 2.92 | 0.97 | 21% | 97 |
| 6 | Joe Ryan | 1 | at MIA/TBR | 91.1 | 2.86 | 0.89 | 24% | 103 |
| 7 | Drew Rasmussen | 1 | ATH/at MIN | 84.1 | 2.45 | 0.96 | 16% | 101 |
| 8 | George Kirby | 1 | KCR/PIT | 36.2 | 5.40 | 1.28 | 18% | 114 |
| 9 | Matthew Boyd | 2 | CLE/STL | 91.2 | 2.65 | 1.10 | 17% | 107 |
| 10 | Clay Holmes | 2 | MIL/NYY | 88 | 2.97 | 1.24 | 11% | 102 |
| 11 | Chase Burns | 2 | at BOS/at PHI | 5 | 5.40 | 1.20 | 38% | 111 |
| 12 | Jacob Lopez | 3 | at TBR/SFG | 43 | 3.56 | 1.30 | 20% | 104 |
| 13 | Kevin Gausman | 3 | NYY/LAA | 94 | 4.21 | 1.06 | 17% | 105 |
| 14 | Jack Flaherty | 3 | at WAS/ at CLE | 84.1 | 4.80 | 1.23 | 18% | 100 |
| 15 | Trevor Rogers | 3 | at TEX/at ATL | 16.2 | 1.62 | 0.78 | 16% | 106 |
| 16 | Ryne Nelson | 3 | SFG/KCR | 60.2 | 3.71 | 1.05 | 13% | 99 |
| 17 | Michael Wacha | 3 | at SEA/at ARI | 92 | 3.33 | 1.22 | 13% | 103 |
| 18 | Michael Lorenzen | 3 | at SEA/at ARI | 88 | 4.91 | 1.38 | 12% | 103 |
| 19 | Hayden Birdsong | 4 | at ARI/at ATH | 56.2 | 4.13 | 1.38 | 13% | 89 |
| 20 | 4 | at TEX/at ATL | 72 | 5.63 | 1.57 | 13% | 96 | |
| 21 | Edward Cabrera | 4 | MIN/MIL | 64.1 | 3.78 | 1.37 | 14% | 100 |
| 22 | Zac Gallen | 4 | SFG/KCR | 97 | 5.75 | 1.41 | 11% | 104 |
| 23 | Andrew Heaney | 4 | STL/at SEA | 86.1 | 4.48 | 1.25 | 9% | 101 |
| 24 | Gavin Williams | 4 | at CHC/DET | 80.2 | 3.68 | 1.43 | 10% | 92 |
| 25 | Tyler Anderson | 4 | at ATL/at TOR | 85.2 | 4.41 | 1.37 | 10% | 97 |
| 26 | Erick Fedde | 4 | at PIT/at KCR | 87.2 | 4.11 | 1.36 | 5% | 105 |
| 27 | Max Scherzer | 5 | NYY/LAA | 8 | 5.63 | 1.50 | 6% | 112 |
| 28 | Shane Smith | 5 | at LAD/at COL | 74.2 | 3.38 | 1.27 | 11% | 99 |
| 29 | Colton Gordon | 5 | at COL/at LAD | 40.2 | 3.98 | 1.30 | 19% | 111 |
| 30 | Patrick Corbin | 5 | BAL/at SDP | 76.1 | 4.24 | 1.28 | 11% | 103 |
| 31 | Emerson Hancock | 5 | KCR/PIT | 71.1 | 5.30 | 1.42 | 8% | 98 |
| 32 | Matt Waldron | 6 | at PHI/TEX | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A |
| 33 | Didier Fuentes | 6 | LAA/BAL | 8.1 | 10.80 | 1.80 | 8% | 101 |
| 34 | Trevor Williams | 6 | DET/BOS | 79.2 | 5.65 | 1.47 | 12% | 104 |
| 35 | Chase Dollander | 6 | HOU/CHW | 62.1 | 6.06 | 1.43 | 8% | 90 |
TYPE Key:
1 – Auto-Start | 2 – All Formats | 3 – Most Formats |
4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass
1 – Auto-Start | 2 – All Formats | 3 – Most Formats |
4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass
Hey Paul, really appreciate you doing these even as you’re pupsitting. Do you think Clay Holmes is a decent QS play? His walks have gotten out of ~control~ lately.
Also I know it’s not your targeted fantasy format, but it would also be interesting to have a column for some info as to wether they have a decent shot at a QS. If there’s something easy to add in as you’re doing your research, such as average IP/GS or p pitch count that would be helpful or just a yes/no based on what you’re seeing
Yeah he’s decent, he has a QS in his arm any night he can keep the walks in order… hard to know exactly when that’s gonna happen, but I still like him as a play in QS lgs.
I can definitely look into getting some more specific info that can help with QS assessments. I’ve been dabbling w/the W label for Wins chases so that’s a sign to QS lgs that maybe it’s not their best play, but let me see what some volume-based stat columns look like on the chart
Reese Olson, Sawyer Gipson-Long, Brandon Walter this week who’s the play? the resident Tigers expert should have a grasp of their clandestine pitching plans. Thanks!
I love Olson and he’s my favorite long-term, but I’m OK skipping this week coming off the IL (if he’s on the wire, I still want to pick him up). After Enns’ great start last wk and Olson returning, SGL might not have a start this week which leads me to Walter. Yes, he’s going to COL, butttt I think we can roll him out there in hopes of at least getting a Win even if he doesn’t dominate in Coors.
Oh man now a doubleheader they starting Flaherty and Holton the tigers love their pitching subterfuge. Walter it is. Thanks Paul!
How many good games before we can trust Gallen? Horrendous games in get right spots against the rockies and white sox. Negative WAR player now
It’s gotta be 2-3 solid-to-good ones before he starts to earn some credibility. Might have the matchup for a one-off start where I chase a Win, but I’m so nervous about him right now
Enlighten me. What is the meaning of the “W” given to Flaherty in the 10s?
He should only be started in 10-team wins leagues, not QS leagues or other formats.
Yes pfitz is correct, in 10-teams I would start him to chase a W even understanding the ratios might be weak. I need to put that info in the area where it says “Recommended for Roto 5×5 Leagues” since it is a new thing I’ve been using sparingly.
Surprised Holmes is ahead of Peralta as Holmes is walking the ballpark lately and leaking oil to just get through five innings. The Mets offense has been pretty bad lately too.
Matchup splits the difference, but I don’t blame you if you lean Peralta as the more talented pitcher
FYI, just saw a report that Grant Holmes is starting today with Didier pushed back a day. Gives Holmes a two-step as well!
Oooh that’s interesting and gives me more interest in Holmes this week
.
Saw your msg in my email and I will get something on the board that explains the W bc I only explained it in the body of the article a couple times and it’s still pretty new
Wanted to go with Gordon today and gamble at Coors but his 16% HR/FB rate ranks 166/187 of pitchers with min. 40IP. Gonna sit this one out.
Never gonna blame anyone for skipping Coors, espec. as their offense has been a bit better of late (how could it not given how poorly they started!?)