Yesterday, I ran into one of those full stop moments. In a 20-team dynasty league, a rival offered me Todd Frazier for Danny Salazar. Despite a need at third base, I passed on the offer. Dee Gordon was also on his trade block so I reached out about a possible Salazar-Gordon swap. I could use a middle infield upgrade on Jed Lowrie. Both Salazar and Gordon would have ranked #14 on my keeper list. And I have J.D. Martinez and Anthony Rizzo to help offset Gordon’s whopping zero in the home run category. It all smelled fine to me.

You probably can guess the response I received – a flat no. I asked some questions to determine if the issue was our valuation of Salazar or Gordon. He told me Salazar is a top 150 asset – smells right to me. Per my rival, Gordon is a top 50 player. Full stop.

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The Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani is finally coming to MLB (and more specifically to the Angels), and in doing so will become the trailblazer that sets a new expectation for the future of the (possible) “two-way” player.  Because salaries and injuries continue to escalate in the game, a true double threat major leaguer is still hard to imagine in baseball, but if the 23 year old Ohtani does become the first player since Babe Ruth to make a regular impact on both sides of the ball, he will change the landscape of fantasy baseball, too.

Ohtani 😱 pic.twitter.com/YXJJ8954Hs

— Vladimir Guerrero (@VladGuerrero27) December 8, 2017

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I once took an excellent training course on effective communication.  At the beginning of the course, our teacher started with a game:

In my hand is an envelop with a $10 bill inside.  I want one of you in this room to take the deal I’m offering you.  I’m going to ask you a simple trivia question and, if you get it right, you get the ten dollars.  But if you get it wrong, you owe me two dollars.  However, if you don’t know the answer, you can ask one person in the room for help.  Who wants to volunteer?

After a few moments of people looking at each other wondering what the catch might be, I volunteered.  “How many states make up the United States?”, he asked.

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Never rebuild – that’s my mantra. As a hard and fast rule, it’s a little too rigid to work in reality. However, as a rule of thumb, it’s a useful code of conduct. I have six leagues that can be described as a dynasty format. Occasionally, I do rebuild. Rosters break. We’re here to talk about those scenarios as well as why I believe rebuilding is for suckers.

Perhaps I should begin with a caveat. Avoiding rebuilds works for me. It’s a battle tested strategy that maps to my strengths and weaknesses as a fantasy player. Not every owner is like me. It’s possible that you should rebuild because it better fits your personal approach.

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I recently received an invitation to join Dave Cameron’s Screw Cancer league on ottoneu (I’m A New Owner To Exploit). It’s been in existence since 2012. Any time one joins a longstanding dynasty league, you’re likely to inherit a steaming pile. In this case, former owner Joe Douglas was kind enough to hand me some very solid assets as part of an incomplete roster. He didn’t leave the league due to the usual reasons – poor performance, rigged rules, and/or frustration. Instead, he was hired by an MLB team. Congrats to him.

My new ottoclub includes plenty of players I don’t want to keep. When considering the current state of the roster, it’s tempting to pursue a complete rebuild. My advice, resist the temptation to rush into a remodeling job. Take this opportunity to learn how to use players you don’t like. At the very least, make sure you maximize your trade returns. Let’s take a closer look at my situation.

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It’s probably been awhile since you’ve read a traditional “buy low, sell high” article.  In today’s golden age of baseball analytics where complex physics and statistics can be boiled down to a few simple indicators accessed instantly using one hand, it’s not very often that we (readers, fans, fantasy players) find ourselves in possession of knowledge before the masses.  For example, try “selling” Avisail Garcia and his recent .375 wOBA around your league without getting some type of response that includes “yeah, but he had a .392 BABIP”.

Thankfully, despite all the data available at our fingertips, the one ingredient that will always play a critical role in the mixture of value is the human element of perception, which can swing wildly in different directions depending who you’re dealing with.  Today I’d like to isolate a few players who’s perception may be suppressing their actual value a little more than it should be, which may represent a buying opportunity for savvy fantasy owners prepping for 2018.  The good news is you don’t have to stand in line to land these deals, but you will still need to get them early.

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Yesterday, I mused about rule changes in dynasty leagues. My point was pretty simple – league health is the number one priority. A healthy league is one with many contenders and few rebuilding owners. Unfortunately, rule proposals rarely focus on health. Instead, there is a tendency to “fix” non-problems, often to the benefit of the top performing owners.

In that linked column, I referenced a few rule changes we’re considering in my 20-team dynasty league. Let’s look at those in more depth here while considering unintended consequences.

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From now until the end of the calendar year, overeager fantasy baseball enthusiasts will be discussing potential rule changes for the 2018 season and beyond. We’ve just begun the process of voting on a couple subjects in my 20-team dynasty. We keep 560 of 900 rostered players (including amateur teenagers). It’s a deep format. We have a bit of problem with owners getting stuck in rebuild mode.

Up for debate at this time are two issues. I suggested moving the trade deadline back from August 10. Another owner wants to add a fifth outfielder slot. We also always talk about increasing the quantity of keepers too. No matter what’s on the table, it’s important to be wary of how new rules will affect competitive balance.

When designing a league or tinkering with an existing one, I seek to accomplish the following:

• Maximize the number of owners with a legitimate shot to win/place
• Maximize the number of owners attempting to win Read the rest of this entry »

My review of a recent Ottoneu dynasty prospect draft continues today with highlights from rounds 10 – 12.

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 1 – 3

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 4 – 6

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 7 – 9

This draft should help you “discover” a few prospect names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.

Before I review my own thoughts on the draft, you should know this Ottoneu league uses the “FanGraphs Points” scoring system based on linear weights, so offense is heavily slanted towards wOBA skills (and speed is almost a non-factor).  We also somewhat arbitrarily removed the Top 12 overall offensive prospects to save them for the standard 40-man auction next spring.  Otherwise, any minor league player without one (1) MLB PA or IP is eligible to be drafted. You can read more about the custom rules of this dynasty league here, and follow along with the draft here.

A few of the prospects below are also featured on the 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list.

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Happy Game 7 Day!

About a year ago I released my (2017) Top 50 Fantasy Prospect rankings using the Prospect Scorecard to weight a variety of important variables in the context of fantasy baseball.  Today I’m publishing an (early) expanded list of the Top 100 Fantasy Prospects for 2018 for both Ottoneu’s FanGraphs Points leagues (where wOBA is a key measure on offense) and Roto leagues (5 x 5).

A few quick notes before we begin:

• Since “Cost” is league-dependent (auction salary, keeper round, etc.), I’ve ignored it here for simplicity by keeping it constant for every prospect listed. Feel free to use the Scorecard to make changes that reflect true player costs for your league, which will impact these rankings.
• These rankings below are intended to represent the 100 most valuable prospects for fantasy leagues (depending on scoring format).
• It’s quite possible I’m missing an obvious player that should be ranked, so let me know in the comments.  We can discuss the specific rationale for player rankings in the comments, too.  Player ages are current ages.
• For a lot more prospect resources, check out the Ottoneu community.

Here are the (early) 2018 Top 100 prospects for the linear-weights-based FanGraphs Points scoring format (a good proxy for those in OBP leagues):

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