A few years ago, a guy named Jabari Blash streaked across the Fantasy Baseball firmament like a doomed comet. He had tremendous raw power, but was a three-true-outcomes guy with a vengeance, and most of those outcomes were strikeouts. His plate discipline, his glove, and his baserunning skills were such that he had to hit a lot of home runs to keep a major league job, and when he didn’t, first the Padres and then the Angels kicked him to the curb. We ourselves didn’t expect Blash to succeed, but we nonetheless took him in various deep drafts out of our sentimental recollection of a story we heard in our youths.

The tale goes like this: A young man’s fantastically wealthy grandfather dies. He leaves his entire estate to charity. To the young man, he leaves only some words of wisdom and advice. The key to success and happiness, says Grandpa, can be stated in a single word: BLASH. But to find out what the word means, the young man must do as the grandfather did in his own youth and seek out a certain guru who lives as a hermit at the top of a remote Tibetan mountain.  After much travail, distress, danger, and expense, the young man scales the mountain and finds the guru. “Guru,” he says. “I have come from far across the sea to acquire the wisdom that you alone possess. What is the meaning of BLASH?” And the guru says, “Buy Low And Sell High.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Catcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Vlad Sedler

Projections

• VDP Projections
• ATC Projections

Strategy Section

• Risk
  • How to price players with risk
  • Is there a limit to the amount of risk you can assemble on one fantay roster?
• Closers
  • The arguments for and against drafting a super elite closer in the 2nd round
• Catchers
  • General assesment of the catcher player pool
  • General strategy for drafting catchers in 2023

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

ATC Undervalued Players

• Catchers
  • Willson Contreras
  • Sean Murphy
  • Danny Jansen
  • Cal Raleigh
  • Logan O’Hoppe

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The End of Season Wrap-Up Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ian Kahn

Most memorable moment of the season

Fantasy MVPs

• Drafted Hitters
• Undrafted Hitters
• Drafted Starting Pitchers
• Undrafted Starting Pitchers
• Relief Pitchers

Strategy Section

• Which is more important – the draft, or in-season play?
• Should we be avoiding risk more in drafts, particularly in the early rounds?
  • Should reliable Freddie Freeman types be pushed up in drafts?
  • Jose Ramirez vs. Trea Turner vs. Aaron Judge for 2023 drafts?
• Lessons learned in 2022
  • What was the optimal closer strategy in 2022? Will it change in 2023?
  • What were some waiver wire strategy lessons learned from 2022?
  • Was the market premium for speed justified in 2022?
  • Were catchers worth taking early in drafts? Will they be worth taking early in 2023?
  • Was starting pitching worth buying early in drafts in 2022? Where should we look to purchase pitching in 2023?
• Who are some potential “Spencer Strider” type candidtates for 2023?

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I included a few thoughts on the following tables, but it’s basically a data dump to be used for 2023 prep. I went through and hopefully determined, with the help of my Twitter followers, the initial 2022 closers and if they kept their job. Some information could still be off so let me know in the comments what needs to be corrected.

First off, here are this season’s initial closers. I included if they kept their job and if they lost it, why. Additionally, I tracked their team’s total Saves.

No major takeaways from this table except … the Twins had just 28 Saves.

And the next table just shows that some recent trends have stabilized.

The total number of Saves is constant and few closers hold the job for a full season, let alone from season to season.

And finally, the numbers of pitchers reaching certain Save totals.

Twenty-four more pitchers got a Save compared to last season. With the Saves getting spread out, only 35 pitchers (the lowest number recorded) accumulated 10 or more Saves. Just 18 guys had 20 or more Saves. If several fantasy teams are grinding for Saves, this is the reason why. This low number is also the reason fantasy managers will continue to spend up on closers.

The Trade Deadline Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Steve Gardner

MLB Trade Deadline

• Closers / Relievers
  • Braves – Raisel Iglesias / Kenley Jansen
  • Brewers – Devin Williams / Taylor Rogers
  • Phillies – David Robertson / Seranthony Dominguez
  • Orioles – Felix Bautista / Cionel Perez / Dillon Tate
  • Twins – Jorge Lopez
  • Angels – Jose Quijada / Ryan Tepera
• Starting Pitchers
  • Mariners – Luis Castillo
  • Athletics – JP Sears
    • Are traded pitcher prospects good short term fantasy investments in redraft leagues?
  • Yankees – Frankie Montas
    • Where should Montas be drafted amongst starting pitchers in 2023 drafts?
  • Cardinals – Jose Quintana & Jordan Montgomery
    • Dylan Carlson – Are we missing something on him?
  • Twins – Tyler Mahle

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The FAAB Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Jenstad

Strategy Section

• FAAB / Waiver Wire
  • How has the waiver wire changed over the past few seasons?
    • Is it more important or less important?
  • When to enter FAAB during the week.
  • Looking at “your” team.
  • How playing with a partner helps with waiver wire pickups.
  • What to look for when picking up players?
  • What to look for when dropping players?
  • How much FAAB should you have left over at the All-Star break?
  • Does prior league bidding affect your FAAB bids?
  • Does current team FAAB amounts affect your FAAB bids?

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4/10/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @justinmasonfwfb – Host/Producer
• @JasonCollette – Co Host

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• Volume 1
• Closer Podcast

The end of the lockout hasn’t cleared things up quite as much as we were hoping, especially with Kimbrel still not traded and unlikely to be by Opening Day at this point.

I’ve got the Closer Chart for you with my Next-In-Line and Darkhorse candidates so you can see every bullpen at a glance and then there is a straight ranking of the relievers after that where you can see that I favor some of the Medium stability closers over some of the High stability guys. It is admittedly hard to be super confident in a reliever ranking after the 10-15 just because who you already have will then dictate where you go later in terms of handcuffing or dipping into other bullpens with lottery tickets, etc… so don’t be too locked into the exact order of the ranking sheet.

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The Relief Pitcher Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guests: Greg Jewett & Eric Samulski

Strategy Section

• General 2022 closer landscape & draft strategy
• FAAB capital vs. Draft captial for closers – which is more efficient?
• Holds / Saves+Holds leagues
• Closer Handcuffs for 2022
  • Giants
  • Padres
• Reuven’s Closer Questions
  • Should you choose closers that are on good teams?
  • Pick closers based on skill?
  • Avoid closers who could be traded?
  • Avoid closer by committee situations?
  • Avoid certain teams all together with lousy players?

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As we head into primetime drafting season, I will be rereleasing my positional ranks. Here are my current ranks for relief pitchers for 2022, my third of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. On the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon, you can see the rankings updated live.

You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/

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