2023 End Of Season Closer Report

by
October 6, 2023

When analyzing closers and the Saves they produce, this season’s results were mixed. Some trends continued (e.g. lots of pitchers getting Saves) and some bucked recent trends (e.g. more keeping the role for the full season). To start with, here are the initial (i.e. drafted) closers and how long they kept their job.

How the 2023 Initial Closers Performed
Team Eventual First Top Closer Going into season NFBC ME ADP Last Until Reason if Replaced Saves Team Saves % of Team Saves
Angels Carlos Estévez Committee 276 EOS None 31 43 72%
Astros Ryan Pressly One Guy 57 EOS None 31 42 74%
Athletics Trevor May Committee 342 4/19/2023 Injury 21 29 72%
Blue Jays Jordan Romano One Guy 49 7/28 Injury 36 51 71%
Braves A.J. Minter Closer Hurt 302 6/14 Incumbent Returned 10 52 19%
Brewers Devin Williams One Guy 52 EOS None 36 46 78%
Cardinals Ryan Helsley One Guy 58 6/12/2023 Injury 14 36 39%
Cubs Michael Fulmer Competition 221 4/16/2023 Poor Performance 2 35 6%
Diamondbacks Scott McGough Committee 301 8/1/2023 Traded for Closer 9 44 20%
Dodgers Evan Phillips Committee 219 EOS None 24 44 55%
Giants Camilo Doval One Guy 80 EOS None 39 50 78%
Guardians Emmanuel Clase One Guy 28 EOS None 44 47 94%
Mariners Paul Sewald Committee 171 8/1 Traded Away 21 44 48%
Marlins A.J. Puk One Guy 328 7/24/2023 Poor Performance 15 43 35%
Mets David Robertson One Guy 177 7/27 Traded away 18 34 53%
Nationals Kyle Finnegan One Guy 234 EOS None 28 42 67%
Orioles Félix Bautista One Guy 62 8/25/2023 Injury 33 49 67%
Padres Josh Hader One Guy 38 EOS None 33 36 92%
Phillies Jose Alvardo Competition 270 5/9/2023 Injury 10 45 22%
Pirates David Bednar One Guy 100 EOS None 39 47 83%
Rangers Will Smith Committee 429 8/22/2023 Poor Performance 22 30 73%
Rays Pete Fairbanks One Guy 129 4/28/2023 Injury 25 45 56%
Red Sox Kenley Jansen One Guy 82 9/12/2023 Injury 29 43 67%
Reds Alexis Díaz One Guy 113 EOS None 37 53 70%
Rockies Pierce Johnson One Guy Not Drafted 6/9 Poor Performance 13 32 41%
Royals Scott Barlow One Guy 132 8/1 Traded Away 13 28 46%
Tigers Alex Lange One Guy 222 8/3 Poor Performance 26 41 63%
Twins Jhoan Duran One Guy 121 EOS None 27 38 71%
White Sox Reynaldo Lopez Closer Hurt 336 5/9 Poor Performance 6 28 21%
Yankees Clay Holmes One Guy 85 EOS None 24 44 55%

These results aren’t useful until they are compared to previous seasons.

Overall Comparision of Initial Closers Performed
Year Saves by Initial Closer Team Saves % Saves by Initial Closer Total EOS EOS % Same Incumbent as the previous year Same Incumbent %
2013 927 1266 73% 15 50%
2014 746 1264 59% 11 37% 16 53%
2015 737 1292 57% 11 37% 14 47%
2016 797 1276 63% 11 37% 16 53%
2017 668 1179 57% 10 33% 13 43%
2018 759 1244 61% 5 17% 12 40%
2019 573 1180 49% 7 23% 9 30%
2020 202 422 48% 11 37% 8 27%
2021 592 1200 49% 9 30% 6 20%
2022 599 1232 49% 9 30% 6 20%
2023 716 1241 58% 12 40% 6 20%

The big change, which many fantasy teams felt, was the lack of Saves on the waiver wire. Almost 60% of all Saves were accumulated by initial closers. This number is up about 10% points compared to recent seasons. Also, 40% of all the closers lasted the entire season, the second-highest total ever. It’s tough to know if this change is just a single-year blip or the beginning of a bigger change.

With the lack of waiver wire options, I would not be surprised if some managers push up closers knowing they could struggle in acquiring them during the season.

Besides the initial closers, here are some overall trends for relievers getting Saves.

Save Trends
Year Players Getting Saves Players Getting > 4 Saves Players Getting > 9 Saves Non Incumbent > 9 Saves
2013 130 42 37 10
2014 134 49 39 15
2015 145 47 37 15
2016 148 53 42 15
2017 162 52 40 15
2018 165 59 43 14
2019 199 64 38 16
2020 131 – – –
2021 198 70 41 18
2022 222 64 35 12
2023 214 64 38 11

After years of more pitchers getting fewer Saves, the peak might have been reached with all the values in line with 2022.

The most important value is the 11 pitchers getting 10 or more Saves who weren’t the initial closer. The number was just 12 last season. The ability to make up Saves during the season is harder than ever with an average of seven pitchers per team getting Saves.

In conclusion, the key is to not focus on the values right now but wait until drafts start-up and the historic trends can be utilized.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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LightenUpFGmember
6 months ago

Technically, Finnegan did lose his job to Harvey at some point, who held it until he got injured. Finnegan ran with it afterwards. I wonder if the Nationals will finally commit to the guy for a full season given how relatively decent he’s performed the past couple of years.

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Timothy Sosarmember
6 months ago
Reply to  LightenUpFG

I was just about to comment on that. Finnegan went a solid month without a save as Harvey ascended. He was mediocre enough in general that I could see him at best being on a short leash heading into ’24, if in the role at all.

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