2022 Closer Trends

by
October 6, 2022

I included a few thoughts on the following tables, but it’s basically a data dump to be used for 2023 prep. I went through and hopefully determined, with the help of my Twitter followers, the initial 2022 closers and if they kept their job. Some information could still be off so let me know in the comments what needs to be corrected.

First off, here are this season’s initial closers. I included if they kept their job and if they lost it, why. Additionally, I tracked their team’s total Saves.

Initial 2022 Closers
Team Eventual First Top Closer NFBC ME ADP Going into season Last Until Reason if Replaced Saves Team Saves % of Team Saves
Angels Raisel Iglesias 36 One Guy 8/2/2022 Trade 16 38 42%
Astros Ryan Pressly 55 One Guy 4/15/2022 Injury 33 53 62%
Athletics Lou Trivino 202 Competition 4/18/2022 Injury 10 34 29%
Blue Jays Jordan Romano 62 One Guy EOS None 36 46 78%
Braves Kenley Jansen 57 One Guy EOS None 41 55 75%
Brewers Josh Hader 22 One Guy 8/1/2022 Trade 29 52 56%
Cardinals Giovanny Gallegos 92 Competition 7/15/2022 Poor Performance 14 37 38%
Cubs David Robertson 353 Competition 8/2/2022 Trade 14 44 32%
Diamondbacks Mark Melancon 127 Competition 8/5/2022 Poor Performance 18 33 55%
Dodgers Craig Kimbrel 123 One Guy 9/23/2022 Poor Performance 22 43 51%
Giants Jake McGee 174 Competition 5/11/2022 Injury 3 39 8%
Guardians Emmanuel Clase 42 One Guy EOS None 42 51 82%
Mariners Paul Sewald 264 Competition EOS None 20 40 50%
Marlins Anthony Bender 248 One Guy 5/25/2022 Injury 6 41 15%
Mets Edwin Diaz 46 One Guy EOS None 32 41 78%
Nationals Tanner Rainey 313 Competition 7/13/2022 Injury 12 28 43%
Orioles Jorge López 434 Competition 8/2/2022 Trade 19 46 41%
Padres Taylor Rogers 95 One Guy 8/29/2022 Poor Performance 28 48 58%
Phillies Corey Knebel 93 One Guy 8/14/2022 Injury 12 42 29%
Pirates David Bednar 176 Committee 7/25/2022 Injury 19 33 58%
Rangers Joe Barlow 224 One Guy 7/13/2022 Injury 13 37 35%
Rays Andrew Kittredge 136 Committee 5/16/2022 Injury 5 44 11%
Red Sox Matt Barnes 156 Competition 6/1/2022 Injury 8 39 21%
Reds Tony Santillan 450 Competition 6/17/2022 Injury 4 31 13%
Rockies Daniel Bard 419 One Guy EOS None 34 43 79%
Royals Scott Barlow 115 One Guy EOS None 24 33 73%
Tigers Gregory Soto 138 One Guy EOS None 30 38 79%
Twins Emilio Pagan 427 Competition 7/1 Poor Performance 9 28 32%
White Sox Liam Hendriks 25 One Guy EOS None 37 48 77%
Yankees Aroldis Chapman 65 One Guy 5/22/2022 Injury 9 47 19%

No major takeaways from this table except … the Twins had just 28 Saves.

And the next table just shows that some recent trends have stabilized.

Year Trends on Initial Closers
Year Saves by Initial Closer Team Saves % Saves by Initial Closer Total EOS EOS % Same Incumbent as the previous year Same Incumbent %
2013 927 1266 73.2% 15 50%
2014 746 1264 59.0% 11 37% 16 53%
2015 737 1292 57.0% 11 37% 14 47%
2016 797 1276 62.5% 11 37% 16 53%
2017 668 1179 56.7% 10 33% 13 43%
2018 759 1244 61.0% 5 17% 12 40%
2019 573 1180 48.6% 7 23% 9 30%
2020 202 422 47.9% 11 37% 8 27%
2021 592 1200 49.3% 9 30% 6 20%
2022 599 1232 48.6% 9 30% 6 20%
Avg 660 1156 57.1% 9.9 33% 11.1 37%

The total number of Saves is constant and few closers hold the job for a full season, let alone from season to season.

And finally, the numbers of pitchers reaching certain Save totals.

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Year Trends on Initial Closers
Year Players Getting Saves Players Getting > 4 Saves Players Getting > 9 Saves Non Incumbent > 9 Saves
2013 130 42 37 10
2014 134 49 39 15
2015 145 47 37 15
2016 148 53 42 15
2017 162 52 40 15
2018 165 59 43 14
2019 199 64 38 16
2020 131 – – –
2021 198 70 41 18
2022 222 64 35 12
Avg 163.4 55.6 39.1 14.8

Twenty-four more pitchers got a Save compared to last season. With the Saves getting spread out, only 35 pitchers (the lowest number recorded) accumulated 10 or more Saves. Just 18 guys had 20 or more Saves. If several fantasy teams are grinding for Saves, this is the reason why. This low number is also the reason fantasy managers will continue to spend up on closers.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

7 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Josh
3 years ago

Closers? Clasers! Clasers I say.

2
getaclooMember since 2018
3 years ago

Lucking out with Clase becoming a top 3 closer this year was one of the biggest reasons I was successful. But as the top chart shows…it’s pretty random!

-1
EonADSMember since 2024
3 years ago
Reply to  getacloo

I mean. Clement was already a pretty safe bet. That’s less luck and more following a trend. He was fabulous last year too, and had no real competition for the role opening the year.

0
Joseph MeyerMember since 2016
3 years ago

I think it’s dubious to say that Jake McGee was the Giant’s closer to start the year. Sure, Gabe Kepler said that, but honestly, when do you believe what Gabe Kepler says? It was always Doval.

2
Richie
3 years ago

While they did also suffer injuries, my impression was Knebel and Aroldis actually lost their jobs due to poor performance? Either prior to or in return from their injuries.

0
Indiana BobMember since 2017
3 years ago

What does Total EOS and EOS % mean in the 2nd table? I assume EOS is End Of Season. So is that total initial closers that were end of season closers and percent of initial closers that were also end of season closers?

0
NathanMember since 2018
3 years ago

I would be interested in comparing drafting the best RPs by talent vs drafting the highest ranked on closer lists in comparable rounds and which strategy wins out.

I had Holmes, Helsley and Duran as my RPs going with the second strategy. All taken late in the draft or on the wire in a 12 team.

0