Help Needed: 2023 Initial Closer Roles
Every season, I try to determine how much closer turnover there is from the last drafts to the season’s end. For example, here is last season’s report.
I decided to verify the beginning of the season section before every manager disappears. For most of the selections, I used our Opening Weekend Bullpen Report. Here are the values I think are right but I don’t feel good about the ones in Yellow. Could people spend a minute looking over the Yellows and verify the names on their favorite team(s)? Thanks.
Changes:
- Angels to Committee
- A’s to Committee
- Mariners to Committee
- Rangers to Committee
- White Sox to Lopez
| Team | Eventual First Top Closer | Going into season | NFBC ME ADP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Carlos Estévez | Committee | 276 |
| Astros | Ryan Pressly | One Guy | 57 |
| Athletics | Trevor May | Committee | 342 |
| Blue Jays | Jordan Romano | One Guy | 49 |
| Braves | A.J. Minter | Closer Hurt | 302 |
| Brewers | Devin Williams | One Guy | 52 |
| Cardinals | Ryan Helsley | One Guy | 58 |
| Cubs | Michael Fulmer | Competition | 221 |
| Diamondbacks | Scott McGough | Committee | 301 |
| Dodgers | Evan Phillips | Committee | 219 |
| Giants | Camilo Doval | One Guy | 80 |
| Guardians | Emmanuel Clase | One Guy | 28 |
| Mariners | Paul Sewald | Committee | 171 |
| Marlins | A.J. Puk | One Guy | 328 |
| Mets | David Robertson | One Guy | 177 |
| Nationals | Kyle Finnegan | One Guy | 234 |
| Orioles | Félix Bautista | One Guy | 62 |
| Padres | Josh Hader | One Guy | 38 |
| Phillies | Jose Alvardo | Competition | 270 |
| Pirates | David Bednar | One Guy | 100 |
| Rangers | Will Smith | Committee | 429 |
| Rays | Pete Fairbanks | One Guy | 129 |
| Red Sox | Kenley Jansen | One Guy | 82 |
| Reds | Alexis Díaz | One Guy | 113 |
| Rockies | Pierce Johnson | One Guy | Not Drafted |
| Royals | Scott Barlow | One Guy | 132 |
| Tigers | Alex Lange | One Guy | 222 |
| Twins | Jhoan Duran | One Guy | 121 |
| White Sox | Reynaldo Lopez | Closer Hurt | 336 |
| Yankees | Clay Holmes | One Guy | 85 |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
As a White Sox fan, I took shots at Reynaldo Lopez. A fill-in for Liam Hendriks hadn’t been named and it seemed like Graveman struggled in the 9th. Lopez didn’t fair any better, unfortunately.
Thanks
Rangers were expected to be just LeClerc before quickly (within days of opening day) moving toward a LeClerc/Smith committee. Obviously it moved on from there to pretty much just Smith.
Thanks.
Also there might have been a sense that Barlow would pair with Leclerc for saves? I personally was surprised by Will Smith getting the gig, but in retrospect it makes sense given his past with Bochy
Angels were sort of a committee between Estevez and Quijada although the popular sentiment in spring training was that it was going to be just Estevez. In spring training games, Estevez was walking everyone so people got nervous. When the season started, Estevez was being saved for save opps but there were very few in the first couple of weeks. After Estevez was used in a couple non-save opps, Quijada got some save opps and excelled at it. It looked like Estevez pretty much lost his job (despite never blowing a save) until Quijada went on the IL.
A.J. Minter was definitely the sole closer for ATL when Iglesias was hurt. He sort of conveniently lost the job just as Iglesias was ready to come back.
Like others said, Reynaldo was the sole guy for the first few weeks until he lost the job due to bad performance.
I don’t have perfect recollection on this, but I would call Alvarado the “first closer” that emerged out of PHI committee. He then got hurt and they pivoted to Kimbrel.
Not sure if SEA should of been considered one guy at the start of the year based on Munoz and usage last year.
Just to back this up, Sewald appeared in the 7th on opening day with Munoz getting the save.
May didn’t get a save til June. Of course the whole team only had 4 saves before then I think (Jimenez 1/Familia 2/Jackson 1).
Lopez got the opening day save in Minn and took 4 out of the first 10 saves looking like a split role
For the Cubs, Fulmer and Boxberger were the favourites to close before the year started. Boxberger had more all-time saves but Fulmer signed for more money (both 1 year deals). Before Fulmer signed, Heuer was in the mix.
As for first top closer, it was Fulmer but short lived. He got his only save on April 7 and then blew his next two chances. Boxberger got the next shot in mid-April and picked up 2 saves in April, none in May before he went on the IL.
For Philly, I think you have it right. Alvarado started to separate himself early in the year. He led the team in saves (5) on April 28th and was on the IL by May 10th. Philly only had 1 save opportunity in that span (May 7 – Stahm, Alvarado had a hold). At the start of the year Dominguez, Kimbrel and Soto were all in the mix (and all had a higher ADP than Alvarado), so definitely a committee.
For the Mets, they refused to name a closer at the start. Robertson was the favorite, but it was seen as likely that Ottavino could share the duty with Raley possibly getting some chances as well.
The Rockies situation was sort of complicated to begin the season. Bard was assumed to be the closer after such a great year last year but he went on the IL with anxiety right as the season began.