• Shawn Kelley received the first save opportunity since Leclerc was removed from closer, and he it was a success with Kelley throwing a scorless inning for his 2nd save of the year. Chris Martin pitched a scoreless 8th and our old friend Leclerc was used in the 7th and looked pretty effective, stirking out a pair in a perfect inning. One successful inning won’t put Leclerc back as the closer but the fact he’s still pitching in higher leverage innings and in the very short term, is looking better, bodes well for him taking back the 9th at some point. In the meantime, the Rangers are still saying this is a committee but I would continue to bet on Kelley as the main provider of saves while Leclerc works his way back. Read the rest of this entry »

• As Al mentioned last night Jose Leclerc is getting a breather from the closer’s role and we expect Shawn Kelley and Chris Martin to fill in for saves as Leclerc is used in lower leverage situations. I have changed the grid to include Kelley and Martin in a committee with Kelley ahead at the moment although we will have to wait for the next save chance to see which direction the Rangers go. Shawn Kelley has been better this year and has saved games in the past so that’s why he’s ahead for the time being. The Rangers signed Leclerc to an extension this offseason and they gave him a long leash through his struggles this year, so they’re not going to give up on him but until he finds his rhythm again, he won’t be seeing saves.

• Ty Buttrey got his first save with the Angels this year, pitching a scoreless two innings allowing two hits and striking out a pair as well. Cam Bedrosian threw a scoreless 7th inning for his third hold of the year and committee chair Hansel Robles wasn’t used. Buttrey and Robles will continue to see saves with Cody Allen out and even when he returns as they are definitively better pitchers. However, guessing who gets more saves here is a little tough. Although Robles has been great in his own right this year, Buttrey is the best option but as we have seen in Boston with Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier, sometimes it’s the second best option that gets the saves. Both are obviously worth owning and only time will tell if this stays as a committee for a while or if it will go in a single direction.

Read the rest of this entry »

UPDATE: Right after publishing, Arodys Vizcaino was placed on the IL with shoulder information. Vizcaino’s shoulder issues were documented throughout the early going of the season but he seemed to be OK. Clearly that’s not necessarily the case with Vizcaino now on the IL. We don’t know how long Vizcaino will be on the shelf for, whether it’s rest or something larger. In his place, A.J. Minter is the clear first option with Chad Sobotka, Jesse Biddle, Wes Parsons and really everyone else in the back of the Braves pen behind them.

• After using Ian Kennedy to preserve the win on Friday the Royals turned to Wily Perlata in the 9th last night for the save, his first of the year. Ian Kennedy threw a perfect 8th inning with two strikeouts setting up Peralta and this remains a no doubt committee. It’s hard to tell who the favored option is on any given day with Brad Boxberger in the mix as along with Jake Diekman as a lefty also throwing high leverage innings. Ian Kennedy was used in the 6th and 7th innings on 4/10  but since then he’s been used in the 9th and 8th innings in back-to-back appearances. Brad Boxberger has the most traditional closer stuff and background but he’s allowed three runs in his last two appearances, and overall hasn’t been particularly effective. We still have him atop the grid given his background but he’s code red with Kennedy and Peralta right behind. Kennedy’s ability to be used for longer outings might preclude him from being a typical late inning option but he’s been the best reliever in their pen so far and at some point the cream will rise to the top, or the closer role in this case.

• When it feels like everyone is using a committee, it can be nice to see one situation possibly be breaking free, which brings us to Minnesota. Blake Parker got his third save in the 9th, with Taylor Rogers setting him up in the 8th. Earlier this season it seemed like Rogers was in the middle of a committee but he hasn’t seen a save opportunity since the start of the year and Parker might be cementing himself as the main guy to own here, at least for now. I can’t fully shed the committee label yet, since Parker’s last appearance was in the 7th and 8th innings. Once the Twins string a few save opportunities in a row we should have a better idea if the committee is still in play. Additionally, it’s worth noting that Parker has a poor 3/3 K/BB in his five innings this year, where one poor appearance can throw him behind Rogers and Trevor May in the pecking order. For now I would bet on Parker receiving the next saves but this situation could change fairly rapidly even as it seems like it’s calcifying.

Read the rest of this entry »

“The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” – Greg Maddux

Last week, I introduced a pitcher metric based on the six possible plate discipline outcomes. You can find the definitions and indexes in the wPDI introduction article, found here.

This week, I would like to provide you with an alternative weighting of the indexes. It will parallel the famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux. He preached that the key to pitching is to throw a strike when the batter isn’t going to swing, and to throw a ball when the batter will [swing].

With the wPDI outcome framework in place, we can now properly quantify Greg Maddux’s quote.

Read the rest of this entry »

Apologies for a brief and belated Bullpen Report but let’s jump right into Saturday’s games…

• Taylor Rogers pitched in the 8th inning last night with the top of the Phillies lineup up, and no real platoon split to speak of. Although he wasn’t particularly sharp he threw a scoreless inning handing it off to Parker in the 9th. The Twins put the game out of a saves reach in the top half of the inning so there was no save situation for Parker. While this situation was being used as a fairly strict platoon it looks like Rogers 8th and Parker in the 9th might be calcifying somewhat. I’ll keep the committee tag for now but Parker is affirming himself ahead for now.

• No save situation for the Royals last night but that was due to the pen blowing the lead before the 9th. Wily Peralta pitched in the 7th to clean up Kevin McCarthy’s mess but he wasn’t particularly effective himself and now carries a 15.00 ERA with only two strikeouts and four walks in three innings pitched this year. Brad Boxberger and Jake Diekman might be ahead of him in the committee at this point. Additionally, although Ian Kennedy has not been special this year, just exhibiting competence might be enough to run with this job at some point. I would bet on Kennedy’s end of season save total over the others in the Royals pen but I also don’t envision that number being particularly high or with ratios that help a team.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Although Jose Alvarado might have a 99 mph screwball he’s not quite the full time closer on the Rays. Last night Alvarado came in 8th inning in a tie game, striking out the side ending with lefty Charlie Blackmon. In the 9th, Diego Castillo came on to face David Dahl, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story. This wasn’t quite an obvious lefty/righty situation but Castillo was in there to face the tough right handed hitters on the Rockies. In my first Bullpen Report I suggested that Alvarado was inching towards being the main closer but that certainly doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Both Alvarado and Castillo are worth owning, almost regardless of if they are receiving saves, but this is a committee situation for the time being.

• Whether or not David Robertson would be used as a traditional closer to reign in Gabe Kapler or not, the Phillies expected better results than he’s providing right now. Robertson entered the game in the 9th with the game tied and proceeded to go single, walk, walk before walking in the winning run. In three appearances this year Robertson has five walks with only one strikeout. It’s definitely still early and there are no velocity concerns but Seranthony Dominguez, who wasn’t effective either blowing the lead in the 8th, could see some more save situations than expected if Robertson doesn’t get on track soon.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today, I will attempt to develop a simple pitcher metric. My exercise will provide us with a recapitulation of the plate discipline data at our disposal, while at the same time afford us the opportunity to unearth some fascinating pitching tendencies of lesser known hurlers.

To do this, let’s start with the basic ingredients of plate discipline, from the point of view of the pitcher.

We can break down any pitch into these simple binary events:

1. Was the ball thrown in the strike zone?
2. Was the ball swung on?
3. Did the batter make contact with the ball?

Read the rest of this entry »

• Due to a right lat strain, the Seattle Mariners placed closer Hunter Strickland on the Injured List. With Strickland out the Mariners closer job is now up for grabs with manager Scott Servais saying “it could be Zac Rosscup one night, it could be Elias, it could be Gearrin or Festa or Rumbelow. Go down the list. We’re looking for somebody to get us three outs.” This certainly sounds like a committee in the making and we have adjusted the grid accordingly. Right now we have Cory Gearrin leading the list but it’s really anyone’s guess on a given night. Yesterday Rosscup started the 9th inning but was unable to finish with Nick Rumbelow coming on to get the final out and his first save.

It might be worth placing a claim on Gearrin for a couple of saves, although I wouldn’t recommend investing much. Of more interest is Anthony Swarzak who should be returning this week from a shoulder injury. Acquired from the Mets in the big Robinson Cano trade this offseason, Swarzak is both the best and most expensive option in the Mariners pen and I would bet on him floating to the top of the committee over all the other names listed.

Read the rest of this entry »

I remember back in mid-December when first putting together a reliever ranking that I eventually threw my hands up around the early-20s and comforting myself with the idea that things would be much clearer by the time draft season kicked into high gear.

I was wrong.

A few situations have become clearer, but what I didn’t quite anticipate was that even more teams would push toward a more open setup rather than committing to one guy. Even a team like Philadelphia that brought in David Robertson and his 137 career saves has acknowledged that he will still share some of the duties with Seranthony Dominguez.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I examined some hitters with the largest plate appearance projection discrepancies using five separate sources. Today, pitchers take center stage.

I’m using the projected playing times from FanGraphs Depth charts and four other sources. Again, I won’t name them as I don’t want to debate the merits of each. My goal is to just find and evaluate different takes on the same players.

The differences aren’t nearly as drastic as the hitters, especially for the top arms. Most of the major differences involve around unknown roles and injury risks. I listed the top-200 at the end while the values for free agents and foreign signings may be off or missing. I’m going to focus on the biggest differences in some top-ranked pitchers.

Ross Stripling
Range (Max-Min): 67
Average: 112
Standard Deviation: 33

I’m not surprised one bit on Stripling. Unless the Dodgers get hit with a ton of injuries to their starters, he’s going to begin the season as a reliever or in the minors. He’s got the talent to be a top-20 starter but the number of starts he’ll get is unknown. Owners can draft him and hope his talent forces the Dodgers hand. The other issue is that he’s on the Dodgers who manipulate their roster to give pitchers scheduled days off via demotions or “injuries”. Good luck guessing right with him.

Read the rest of this entry »