Archive for Busts

Even the best fantasy players post poor seasons. Often times, one owner’s disappointment can be another owner’s opportunity. Fantasy baseball is such a “what have you done for me lately” game, that some owners will give up on premier talent after a down season. While it’s never easy to make a deal in fantasy — particularly when the players involved are considered elite — sometimes it pays to inquire whether a certain player is available in your leagues. Here are some of those elite players that could be available at a lower price in your leagues right now.
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While working on my 2B rankings, I kept seeing Dustin Ackley and Jason Kipnis ranked low. The rankings were a combination of 2011 stats and ZIP preseason projections. While they both hit good in 2011, the projections seemed low. I decided to look into players that had similar rookie seasons and how they performed the next year.

I took all rookies from 1991 to 2011 that had between 150 and 400 PA and an OPS between 0.750 and 0.850. I chose to use OPS, because it is an encompassing stat that is available in the options at Baseball-reference’s Pay Index. Twenty-eight players made the list. Besides Ackley and Kipnis, two other rookies from 2011 where on it, Paul Goldschmidt and Eric Thames. In the end, I had 24 players to use in the comparison.

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Yesterday, I looked at the batted ball data for full time hitters. Today, I moved onto the hitters that had between 150 and 400 PA in 2011. There are more outliers in these groups because the hitter’s batted ball data did not have a chance to stabilize.

HR/FB%

No young players sneaking up onto this list. Just the 2 part time vets

LD%

Salvador Perez – Sal should see plenty of attention going into next season. A catcher that hits 0.300 will get noticed. He won’t continue to hit LD at a near 30% rate. Pitchers will find a weakness in his swing and the numbers will come down.

BABIP

Alejandro De Aza – He is getting mentioned as next year’s lead off hitter for the White Sox. The possible drop he may see in AVG could easily be made up with SB and Runs.

Hank Conger – He always had a BABIP over 0.300 in the minors. He can’t seem to get it over 0.250 in the majors. He needs to finally break through or he may have a long future as a journeyman catcher.

Brian Roberts – He was hitting bad before losing the season to a concussion. I like him as a buy low candidate in 2012. I would not have him as my first choice at 2B, but would take a late round flier on him.

Chone Figgins – I have no idea why the Mariners just haven’t cut the cord on him.

Anthony Rizzo – He was one of the players that came over in the Adrian Gonzalez trade. He is a long ball hitter with 20 or more HRs over the last 2 years in the minors. While with the MLB club, he hit only 1 HR. A low LD% (13.4%), high K% (30%) and fly balls that won’t leave the stadium (2.8% HR/FB) will lead to the 0.141 AVG. Hopefully he will have a better 2012. It almost can’t get any worse.

Tyler Colvin – Tyler looks like a home run hitter that can’t hit home run. After hitting 20 home runs with a HR/FB ratio of 19.4% in 2010, he only hit 6 HRs in 2011 with a 8.6% HR/FB ratio. I just don’t think he can hit good enough to make it in the majors.

Welcome to Championship Week in Fantasy Baseball. If your team is currently fighting for the league trophy; this article is not for you. Nope. This article is for the majority of fantasy owners that fell short of the gold this season. Did you fight valiantly only to fall in the playoffs; or did your team crash and burn from the start? In either case, something went wrong for your team this season. Even though the sting of defeat is still fresh, there’s no better time to look back on your draft to figure out why your team isn’t fighting for the gold this season.
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Casey Kotchman has been a nice surprise for the Rays this season by generating 2.4 WAR. The Rays have gotten little production from the 1B in recent years. Even with his breakout/comeback this season, he should get little consideration when creating a roster next season. Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday, I introduced my Luck stat for pitchers and hitters. Today, I will look into some improvements to the hitter portion of the stat. Read the rest of this entry »

Andre Ethier usually launches bombs, but over the weekend he dropped a bomb on the Dodgers-related news media. The 29-year-old outfielder admitted that he’s been playing with pain in his right knee all year. General Manager Ned Colletti was having none of it, responding with an incredulous question: “What am I supposed to be concerned about?” This is a man who knows how to handle personnel in the media. Give him a better team to destroy, right?

Snark aside, we know that many keeper and dynasty teams are looking to next season and beyond. Therefore it makes sense to evaluate Ethier’s year, future with the Dodgers, and long-term fantasy prognosis with this knee injury in mind. In other words, does this news kill his keeper value?

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The first half of the 2011 season saw two of the game’s better power hitters fall into a veritable abyss when it came to production.  Both players were joining new teams, both signed big contracts, and both were drafted with home run expectations that were sky high.  But both Dan Uggla and Adam Dunn struggled mightily to begin the year, and while those that drafted them were becoming more and more frustrated by the day, other GMs were sitting back and licking their chops, waiting for the moment of a huge buy-low opportunity.  Those that tried it with Uggla just finished reaping the benefits of a 33 game hit streak and a .361-12-28 second half run.  Those of us who chose Dunn?  Well….not so much. Read the rest of this entry »

Wrapping up our survey of disappointing seasons, we turn our attention to shortstops and outfielders.

Shortstops

My pick to hit to his cost the rest of the way: Tsuyoshi Nishioka

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After a one week hiatus, I’m continuing to look at players who have been busts in ottoneu fangraphs points fantasy baseball leagues.  It uses the same model described in this post, although the values have been updated based on year to date statistics.

Second Base

My Pick: Dan Uggla

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