Andre Ethier’s Knee, Future

Andre Ethier usually launches bombs, but over the weekend he dropped a bomb on the Dodgers-related news media. The 29-year-old outfielder admitted that he’s been playing with pain in his right knee all year. General Manager Ned Colletti was having none of it, responding with an incredulous question: “What am I supposed to be concerned about?” This is a man who knows how to handle personnel in the media. Give him a better team to destroy, right?

Snark aside, we know that many keeper and dynasty teams are looking to next season and beyond. Therefore it makes sense to evaluate Ethier’s year, future with the Dodgers, and long-term fantasy prognosis with this knee injury in mind. In other words, does this news kill his keeper value?

One thing that becomes immediately obvious is that power is the dimension in question. Ethier currently has a batting average and on-base percentage that is perfectly in line with his three-year and career numbers, even in this down year. He walks more than average, strikes out less than average, and is once again stroking line drives (25.1% this year, 22.3% career) in order to keep his BABIP high (.343 this year, .322 career). That’s enough, in deeper keeper leagues, to keep him around through this low period on his career. There’s never a really good reason to sell-low anyway.

But if he’s going to regain his mixed-league value, Ethier is going to have to find the power stroke he lost. Right now his ISO is at a career-low (.126, .188 career). Even when you consider the league’s dropping power rates, it’s obvious something isn’t right.

If we didn’t have this knee information in hand, we might blame his batted ball mix. Right now, the outfielder is sporting his second-highest ground-ball rate (44.3%, career 41.4%), but it’s his career-low fly ball rate (30.6%, career 36.3%) at the same time that makes things so tough on his power. His 1.45 ground-ball to fly-ball ratio is by far and away the worst of his career (1.45, had a 1.30 in 2007 and 2008). The best power numbers put up by a player with a ratio that high comes from Hunter Pence (.171), who uses his speed to add to his power numbers on some level and still doesn’t have a great ISO. The players ahead of Ethier on the list (Carl Crawford, Drew Stubbs, Erick Aybar and Michael Cuddyer) provide the best context. Hitting so many ground balls is not conducive to great power numbers.

But now we have to consider the idea that Ethier’s knee has contributed to this down year. One thing we know is that a player can use his wheels to augment his power, as we dscussed with Pence above. And it does look like Ethier’s knee has sapped him of his speed. Never a speed demon (3.3 speed score career, 5.0 is average), Ethier is now one of the slowest in the league (1.5 speed score this year, seventh-worst among qualified batters). Most likely, he won’t hit a triple this year for the first time in his career. But he’ll still manage an average year in terms of doubles (ZIPs updated has him at 34, and he hit 33 last year).

No, even if Ethier is hurt and has lost some speed, his line-drive power is still there. You can see it in his doubles. It’s just the home-run power that’s gone. His home runs per fly ball ratio is down (8.9% HR/FB, 12.3% career), but there are a few unclear factors at play. One, his new rate is not unheard of for Ethier. He had similar numbers his first two years as a Dodger (9.2% and 9.4% in 2006 and 2007). In other words, he could have been healthy this year and we wouldn’t have had a major statistical clue that he wasn’t.

Ethier will finish the year with five and a half full seasons under his belt. In those seasons, he’ll have accrued just short of 115 home runs, meaning he’s a 20-home-run hitting outfielder on average. With great batting averages, that’s playable, but not elite. Unless the knee has specifically robbed him of his home run power without destroying his doubles power, it doesn’t actually factor in to his long-term value.

One last wrinkle: Ethier is in the last year of arbitration and might become too expensive for the currently cash-poor organization. Now, with a little vitriol with the front office mixed in, he’s likely going to be one of the most acquirable names of the offseason. Before we pencil him in for a healthy season with a power bounce in a new home stadium, though, it’s worth noting the home run power factor for lefties in LA (116) and Ethier’s home and away ISO splits (.214 at home, .162 on the road).

No, Ethier is who he’s always been, good knee or bad: a serviceable fantasy outfielder who will put up strong batting averages and mediocre power numbers. Consider him the National League’s version of Nick Markakis (with less speed). Unless this knee injury turns into something ugly over the offseason, it’s not terribly important to his value next season.





With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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Trey Baughn
12 years ago

Just dumped a $20 Ethier and some B Level prospects for a $2 Tyler Skaggs in Ottoneu. Hoping it pays off in the long run (2013+).

Corey
12 years ago
Reply to  Trey Baughn

wish I had him for $20, I’m stuck with him for $33. Would like to get him back next year, but not at that price.