Archive for Busts

Sometimes us stats guys get accused of relying solely on esoteric metrics and watching nary a baseball game. Obviously, I cannot speak for everyone, but I would bet this is far from the truth. Though I am clearly not a professional scout, there are still easy things I can see on TV from a pitcher that can help us project his performance going forward. One of these is the pitcher’s velocity. We have learned that an increase of about 0.5 miles per hour in a pitcher’s fastball results in a similar gain of 0.5 in strikeout rate. Yesterday, I watched a lot of Jake Arrieta’s start, and as I type this, I am watching Ubaldo Jimenez pitch.

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In the last of my posts trying to translate my look at the predictability of pitchers’ spring peripherals into actionable advice, I examine those pitchers whose walk rates were much higher than their Steamer projections for the regular season. These are the guys there might be some cause for concern, as opposed to the potential BB% improvers, whose spring hint at a potential step forward with their control.

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Jason Bay is owned in 32% of Yahoo leagues. Those 32% must not be Mets fans.

If you’ve been watching Bay in the blue and orange, there hasn’t been much to like for two years now. Well, his strikeout and walk rates have held steady so far, but it’s the power that disappeared and never came back, and it was the power that put all those zeroes on his last contract. Maybe that home run derby appearance was a harbinger — since his last year with the Red Sox, Bay has hit fewer fly balls and more ground balls every year. And his isolated power has come down from his peak to his nadir accordingly.

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Piggybacking off of Howard Bender’s post from earlier last week, I am going to follow up with three more players that I wouldn’t draft this year either. Sometimes guys fall to you and you have almost no choice but to take them, but these are three guys I won’t be following closely on draft day.

Adam Lind: While I like his opportunity to rack up the RBIs in the middle of what should be a potent Toronto lineup, most of Lind’s game is lackluster and worrisome. Yes, he has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the past three years, but his dwindling average and poor on base skills lead to plenty of easy outs on Lind’s end. In leagues that account for average he is bad and if they account for OBP he is worse. With only one season with a wRC+ over 100, Lind is a below average hitter compared to the league and is far below average compared to first basemen. His best traits, his homers and his RBI total, are not even tremendously impressive.
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Twice in the past few days, Howard Bender (whose name I cannot hear without imagining this) has provided a list of guys he will not draft in 2012.

I wanted to add my own list, but with an ottoneu twist. I’ll just add a note that I am very specifically saying I won’t draft these guys. At the right price, I would have held onto any of them as keepers, and I actually have the first one on one of my rosters because his price is so low. And so, without further ado…

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Well, since the last installment received so much attention — both positive and negative — I figured we should have another go-around here.  Only this time, in an effort to create more dialogue and draw even more of your ire, I took the advice from some of you and looked more towards the upper rounds of the draft.  Personally, I think telling you not to waste your time with a particular player in the lower rounds is a bit more helpful than this — sure, there’s less risk in the 19th round and you don’t care if you eventually drop the guy, but why waste the pick in the first place?  But alas, this is what you asked for my dear RotoGraphs readers and this is what you get… Read the rest of this entry »

OK, so the language in the title might be a bit inflammatory.  I can’t, with 100% certainty, say that I absolutely, positively won’t draft these guys, but based on the current chatter and their ADP rankings, they will not be targets for me.  Now, if they somehow slipped a few rounds and it looks like they could, potentially, be a bargain, then I might think otherwise, but that’s a pretty big “if” for me right now.  Here’s who I’m avoiding… Read the rest of this entry »

Despite not being a prospect guy like Marc Hulet, I find myself drawn to younger players in fantasy. In keeper, it’s easy to explain away: Sign a couple top talents to cheap contracts when they’re young and you’ve got the foundation for a dynasty — provided of course you can manage the rest of the year-to-year budgeting properly. In redraft, there isn’t the same incentive to capitalize on grabbing a player who isn’t quite in his prime yet. Deep leagues necessitate a little creativity, and so there’s motivation there, but grabbing Mike Trout the instant he was called up last year was probably a mistake for most players. Grabbing a slightly riper Trout this year…that could be another matter entirely.

The flipside of the opportunity presented by prospects in the fantasy context is the chance that they will disappoint and leave you without much in the way of value for your trouble. Sitting for a full year on players like Brian Matusz or Brett Wallace can not only be galling in short term, but can sour owners on players going forward. (For more information on this phenomenon, see Vazquez, Javy.) Sometimes skepticism based on bad experiences is warranted, sometimes it’s sour grapes, and determining which can be the difference between letting a good sleeper pass and just another of many fantasy stories about the one who got away. Read the rest of this entry »

Two weeks ago I followed up on Chris Cwik’s look at several busts from the past season with some more names. Now it is time to look at the opposite side of the coin, those supposed duds who turned out to be studs. In the studs to duds article, I explained why you might want to consider trading for each particular player. This time I will dive into why it may be prudent to trade away the player in question. Of course, I will have to ignore the cost to keep the player since every league has different rules. So think of this section as more of a handful of reasons why the player will be overvalued.

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Inspired by Chris Cwik’s work this morning discussing some of the biggest busts of this past season, I will take a look at a couple more players mentioned in the first comment of that article. Assuming you did not own any of these busts and endured the heartache they gave their owners, a disappointing season is a welcome phenomenon that drives down the player’s cost in next season’s drafts. Of course, the question then becomes whether the player will rebound, which is precisely what we’ll try to figure out. We will assume the stud in question is owned by another team in a keeper league and you have the opportunity to make an offer for said player.

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