3 Players I Won’t Draft in 2012
Piggybacking off of Howard Bender’s post from earlier last week, I am going to follow up with three more players that I wouldn’t draft this year either. Sometimes guys fall to you and you have almost no choice but to take them, but these are three guys I won’t be following closely on draft day.
Adam Lind: While I like his opportunity to rack up the RBIs in the middle of what should be a potent Toronto lineup, most of Lind’s game is lackluster and worrisome. Yes, he has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the past three years, but his dwindling average and poor on base skills lead to plenty of easy outs on Lind’s end. In leagues that account for average he is bad and if they account for OBP he is worse. With only one season with a wRC+ over 100, Lind is a below average hitter compared to the league and is far below average compared to first basemen. His best traits, his homers and his RBI total, are not even tremendously impressive.
James Shields: I like Shields and had him in line for a bounce back last year, but he received nearly as much good luck last year as he did bad luck the year before. With very similar K/BB and HR/FB rates over the past two years, the big difference was a .341 BABIP in 2010 compared to a .258 BABIP last year. He induced more ground balls last year, which helped bring that number down, but his career BABIP of .299 looks like the number to expect this season. With his BABIP at a normal rate, his ERA should be somewhere between 3.50-3.80. While that is certainly fine for a rotation, it makes him someone I would pass over for Madison Bumgarner or CJ Wilson.
Jose Valverde: His choke hold lock on the closer spot certainly has value, but a decreasing K/BB ratio is alarming. With a ratio of 3.61 in 2008, Valverde has totaled a K/BB of 1.97 and 2.03 in the past two seasons. With a poor infield defense behind him, more blown saves and a few more runs allowed seems like the likely end result. I would much rather look at Rafael Betancourt or Sergio Santos and draft a bat or starter when Valverde came up in the draft box rather than take Detroit’s closer and suffer the consequences of a pitcher coming off a career year with a below average K/BB rate.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
Agree on Valverde… I think he’ll have a shorter leash this year certainly. Moved him in the last few weeks of last season for Ervin Santana… who I then moved for Ackley this spring.
Short leash for Valverde?? I have trouble imagining a situation where Leyland removes him from the closer role, barring injury.
Agreed, Leyland has to have a note from the Coroner’s Office before he removes an established player from their role or spot in the line-up.
Is Goldschmidt (spelling?) of Arizona a cheaper, and possibly higher upside player than Lind? That’s what I am thinking.
Higher upside? Yes. Cheaper? Probably not. Mockdraftcentral has the two of them within two picks of each other, and Yahoo has Goldschmidt 57 picks higher than Lind.
You’re guessing that Shields’ .258 BABIP increases to .299 next year, what do you expect for the Rays team BABIP (.276 last year)?
Lind – Actually undervalued because of his extreme platoon splits
Shields – You didn’t mention the Rays stellar defense (as Steve Balboni alluded to). It’s not a coincidence that every Rays pitcher had a low BABIP last year. If you set a 30 IP min, not one of them had a BABIP above .300
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=30&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=12&rost=0&players=0&sort=10,d
Don’t forget that the Rays have had stellar defensive teams for years. Last year wasn’t the first time they had a great defensive unit. They had great fielding the year he had an ERA over 5.00. I think Shields is a fine pitcher and his FIP is repeatable, but the ERA varies and I would rather Bumgarner or Wilson than pay the price on Shields’s career year.
Good point. I assumed they were middle of the pack in 2010, but there they were…right at the 2010.
Unlrelated…what a sleeper James Shields was last year with that ridiculously high BABIP, good peripherals, and stellar defense behind him. In retrospect that stars were really aligning for him to have a monster bounce back year.
Yea, exactly this. There were a few times he blew up last year to like terrible teams which (obviously low sample size!) I think is indicative of how much he was relying on luck to produce at the ace level he did last year. Great player but not for that price!
btw I agree on Valverde – complete doo-doo. How this guy gets ranked where he does is beyond me.
Because he is almost guaranteed to close for a winning team all year.
Pretty much. It’s hardly translating sanskrit..
I have the 2nd overall pick and I will be passing on Albert and Matt Kemp.
‘Tell me more, tell me more.. on second thought don’t bother.’
You should draft Adam Dunn. He is due for a huge rebound year!!
I have to disagree with your assessment of Lind, on many counts. This helped to inspire me me to start a blog of my own. I’ve detailed them in this Adam Lind Fantasy Sleeper post.