3 More Guys I Won’t Draft in 2012
Well, since the last installment received so much attention — both positive and negative — I figured we should have another go-around here. Only this time, in an effort to create more dialogue and draw even more of your ire, I took the advice from some of you and looked more towards the upper rounds of the draft. Personally, I think telling you not to waste your time with a particular player in the lower rounds is a bit more helpful than this — sure, there’s less risk in the 19th round and you don’t care if you eventually drop the guy, but why waste the pick in the first place? But alas, this is what you asked for my dear RotoGraphs readers and this is what you get…
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF BOS — Am I really the only person who thinks Ellsbury’s power surge in 2011 was maybe a little too flukey to be vaulting him into the overall top 10? Have we not learned anything from Joe Mauer’s power surge in 2009? I’ve pored through the numbers and looked over his batted ball data, and while I can’t really find anything that says that Ellsbury’s power is unsustainable, I haven’t found anything that says that it is sustainable either. His K% and BB% were pretty consistent, he doesn’t appear to be getting too much help in the BABIP department, and he was actually hitting more line drives than he was fly balls. But the fact remains that Ellsbury has never…never…displayed this type of power on any level during his career. One theory is that he has finally learned to jump on the fastball better, something he seemed to struggle with previously in his career. But if that’s really the case, don’t you think we’d see less fastballs thrown his way? So due to the fact that there’s really nothing I can see pointing in either direction, I’m going to forgo taking the risk of him regressing back to his usual power numbers, especially in the first round. Yes, if he continues this power trend, then I’ve missed out on a high quality player, but if it doesn’t, then I still have a high quality first round selection and an eighth round Brett Gardner for steals while the guy who took Ellsbury with the 8th overall pick is banging his head against a wall
Carl Crawford, OF BOS — No, this isn’t an anti-Boston campaign. It’s just the way it goes. Plain and simple…between last season’s decline, offseason wrist surgery and his early season in 2012 in doubt, I can think of a ton of players I would rather take in the late third/early fourth round over Crawford. Aside from the usual questions about how he will hit once his wrist is fully healed, there are other things for which to be concerned. Where is he batting in the lineup — third? Sixth? If he’s hitting third, he’s not stealing like he did in the old Tampa days, especially with Adrian Gonzalez hitting behind him, is he? And if he hits sixth, what kind of lineup protection does he really have? As a pitcher I’d much rather give Crawford junk to hit and take my chances with a Cody Ross or Ryan Sweeney, wouldn’t you? Again, similarly to Ellsbury, he could turn out to be a solid player once again, but is the hope for that greater than the actual value you would receive taking someone like Starlin Castro at short or Ryan Zimmerman at third? How do we know he won’t stink again? Few people saw it coming last year, so how can anyone say that he’ll succeed this year with any sort of confidence?
Tim Lincecum, SP SF — How many of you would be happy to take a pitcher whose K/9 has steadily dropped for four straight seasons, has seen an increase in walk rate for the last three seasons, has seen his SIERA/xFIP increase over the last three years and was a sub-.500 pitcher in his most recent season? Well, duh. You take the chance if his name is Lincecum, right? Nope. Not in my book. Listen, the kid has skills, no question about it. He’s thrown over 200 innings with over 200 strikeouts for the last four years. He’s won two Cy Young awards. He helped lead his team to a World Series championship. But just as in life, all good things must come to an end, and seeing the steady rates of decline, I would rather take a chance on building a pitching staff with picks lower than the second round pick it would take to secure little Timmy. And if I really wanted a pitcher at that point in the draft, I’d rather take Felix Hernandez or CC Sabathia even just a few picks later. Atleast those guys aren’t exhibiting such downward trends. And while yes, he has remained relatively injury free, the workload could be wearing on him. Who’s to say that his unconventional delivery will continue to protect his arm through another grueling season? I see drafting Lincecum like a game of musical chairs right now. When the music stops, I don’t want to be the one left standing there.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com
where is Carl Crawford going in the 3rd/4th round? obviously you’d have to be crazy to draft him there. I see him going around the 8th on yahoo and I like him there.
Exactly. I keep seeing Crawford on these do not draft list followed by the analysis of- “no chance I would take this guy in the 4th round…” Well yeah, no duh. If people are really drafting him that high in drafts I haven’t seen it. In 12 team drafts he is going 7th-8th round. Would you like him if that were the price?
Crawford’s ADP on Mock Draft Central is 41.28 as of today. That puts him at the tail end of the 3rd/early fourth round in 12-team mixed leagues. I haven’t looked at him on Yahoo actually.
Would I take the chance on him in the 8th round? Possibly. But it would obviously depend on my needs at the moment.
Wow, I had no idea his ADP was that high. I only do Yahoo drafts so I always go by that. The site’s default rankings makes a big difference.
In a draft heavily dominated by red sox homers, I picked him up in the middle of the 10th round. I am completely happy with my choice there.
I’m a tad suspicious of Ellsbury too, but at least he’s not switching to a brutal home run park like Mauer did right after his big year.
Easy on the italics, captain. You gotta spot them.
I’m with you on Crawford.
Agreed on Ellsbury. Great season, but now he is overvalued by at least a round.
I am staying away from Crawford because of the wrist injury, but *if he stays healthy I expect a bounce-back season for him.
Now on to da freakkkk:
“He’s thrown over 200 innings with over 200 strikeouts for the last four years. He’s won two Cy Young awards.”
Guy is in his prime right now, and I will take him in the second round all day, everyday.
I’m a bit wary when the same piece says that one-year variances are flukey (Ellsbury) but also clear evidence of trends (Crawford).
I can understand that, but the difference is that Ellsbury had never displayed that type of power before, hence the fluke, and Crawford, although had put together some fine seasons, also failed to develop more power over the years as everyone thought he would. He was always supposed to take it up a notch and never really did. I actually tabbed him as a bust when he signed with Boston, so last year’s downward spiral was an expected variance for me.
I agree on Ellsbury. At least with Bautista, he was known to have amazing power in the minors and at each of his stops along the way. Ellsbury, not so much. Too me it would be like if Zimmerman stole 30 bases this year: great bonus, but don’t count on it
Didn’t Mauer get hurt after his power breakout? Here’s the thing with Ellsbury. For a few years there teams would throw almost nothing but hard inside stuff to him and he’d swing at it and miss/foul it off. Last year he made adjustments and either laid off that pitch or was able to turn on it for power.
Sure pitchers will adjust but the fact is he closed up the biggest hole in his swing in 2011. He’s always hit off-speed stuff well, so I don’t think there’s any reason to think Ellsbury’s 2011 was a fluke.
In his follow-up season, Mauer played in one less game with 22 fewer plate appearances than in his breakout year.
I hear you on Ellsbury and the adjustments he made. I’m just not ready to use a first rounder on him if there’s as much a chance of him regressing as there is of him maintaining. If he’s making the adjustments, then so will the pitchers.
Mauer had knee surgery following the season in 2010. I thought it was understood that it contributed to his power being sapped in 2010. Regardless, 2010 was a great season for Mauer.
2010 was great for Mauer, but not 1st round great. 2009 was his power breakout where all of his line-drive doubles were going over the left field wall in the dome. That stopped happening in Target Field, so his power dropped a lot.
If I remember right, Ellsbury saw the 2nd-most fastballs in the league in 2011. I’m just going to go ahead and guess that doesn’t happen again.
If he hits ahead of Pedrioa and Gonzalez he will still see a ton of fastballs.
You don’t have to buy Ellsbury’s power to make him a 1st round pick. He’ll steal 35-60 bases, he’ll hit 10-20 HR and he’ll be in a very good lineup. That is a recipe for a 1st round player. He put up 1st round value in 2009 and was on pace for 1st round value in 2008 had he played a full season. His AVG is fully supported by his skills so he is a legit .300 hitter.
If Ellsbury hits 10 home runs and steals 50 bases, I feel like I can get better value drafting a bigger masher or a top middle infielder in the first round and go after someone like Cameron Maybing much later. His ballpark stinks and he probably won’t have close to the runs scored of Ellsbury, but he should hit for the same power and steal as many bases.
Are you really predicting Maybin’s offensive output (other than runs) will match Ellsbury’s??
What he’s saying is that a (presumably) power hitting player as a first or second round pick + Maybin could very well equal or exceed the value created by Ellsbury plus a pick in whatever round Maybin goes in.
I can get behind it – it tends to seem like there are speedier guys with some good upside in later rounds (Maybin, Coco Crisp, Jose Tabata) as opposed to all-around power hitters in later rounds.
That wasn’t Bender’s prediction – he was going along with the commenter’s supposition.
“(maybin) probably won’t have close to the runs scored of Ellsbury, but he should hit for the same power and steal as many bases.” — That’s the prediction I was talking about
You have to assume that some of the power translates and he hits 10+, no reason not to assume that at least a sliver of it was for real. He is also in a much stronger lineup than Maybin and is a fully legit .300+ hitter which carries a ton of value. If Ellsbury goes 10/50 batting leadoff in that lineup he will bring back $30 which is a late 1st, early 2nd round value. If he hits 15+ HR he puts up mid 1st round value, if he hits 20+ he is elite. The ceiling is high and the floor is pretty high too.
Yeah there a bunch of 10 HR, 30 SB guys to be had late but most of them come with questionable AVG and in mediocre to bad lineups. Not really a very fair comparison when they match Ellsbury in maybe 1 stat out of 5.
I think Ellsbury has the edge in runs scored and batting average, but I think Maybin can match him in HR, RBI and SBs.
That being said, Resolution helped emphasize the real point I was making.
Maybin had 40 RBI’s last year. Ellsbury had 105. Ellsbury had more RBI’s than Pujols, Bautista, Votto, Longoria, Upton and CarGo.
I don’t think that that will happen again, but I think people focus on HR/SB too much and simply assume that R/RBI will follow. I think a reasonable projection is 110/20/80/40 .300. Those are first-round numbers.
10 HR??
c’mon, youve got to be kidding.
the only way he hits that few is he misses half the season.
his absolute floor is something like
15HR, 95 R, 30 SB, 75RBI, .280 which is not a bust by any means.
and a very conservative line is
18 Hr, 110 R, 38 SB, 80 RBI, .290 which is still a top 15 hitter.
i just dont see some catastrophic collapse will Ellsbury
But the fact remains that Ellsbury has never…never…displayed this type of power on any level during his career.
So, that’s bad?
The opportunity cost of Ellsbury is much, much higher than you, Asdrubal.
If you’re drafting him for 25 HR’s – Yes!
Absolutely no comparison between the power breakthroughs of Ellsbury and Mauer.
Mauer ’09 had about half his home runs listed as “Just Enoughs” on Hit Tracker. He hit so many opposite field jacks, of course it was unsustainable — and that’s if they had stayed in the Metrodome.
Ellsbury pulled most of his HR’s last year, and didn’t skimp on the distance. He had only 4 “Just Enoughs.” But I don’t think anyone is expecting 30 hr again. If he hits around 20, he’s an easy top 10 value.
700 PA’s of .300 avg … rare
40-50 SB’s … rarer
20 HR and 110 R to go along with the BA and SB? Top 10
“…and was a sub-.500 pitcher in his most recent season?”
^relevance = ?
His lessened win potential because of the Giants’ offense added to increasing/high walk rates plus a declining K/9 is not good. Definitely agree taking Lincecum that high is a huge overpay.
dramatic effect?
I was simply using it as another “negative” to add if I was describing a pitcher to you without giving his name…
My only problem with your argument about Lincecum is that you essentially turned two pieces of viable evidence (declines in walk and strikeout rate) into five. The reason his xFIP and SIERA declined is because his walk and strikeout rates declined. Those rates don’t imply any further skill degradation of skill, and the declines in walk and strikeout rate are far from assuredly significant. They can both essentially be traced to marginal drops in Zone% and F-Strike% between 2010 and 2011, which could easily just be noise. I wouldn’t treat him as a top two or three fantasy pitcher, but he’s not being treated like that by the market. Strikeout and walk rates are fairly stable, but if you take the swing he’s seen out of order and just throw it out there, you wouldn’t assume it was more than sample variation. Could it be a true skill decline? Sure, but the evidence isn’t particularly strong. I wouldn’t draft him in standard formats just because I don’t usually draft pitchers that high, but that’s a strategic preference, not an evaluative one.
For me the first rounds of the draft should follow the physician’s creed–Do No Harm. All three of the guys you list just have too much downside risk to justify their current draft positions.
I watch alot of Ellsbury on the ole TV during the summer and i must admit his HR’s aren’t the looping/popped one up and hope it has the distance kind. He hit’s (sorry Dustin) Laser’s. That being said some of those may stay in the park and end up singles/doubles/ triples. Decreasing his HR total but also leaving him on base to possibly steal more. I would “guess”, as thats all it is, if his HR total dips by 10 his SB’s increase roughly the same amount.
Just a guess.
Aw come on… 33 comments and no one mentions how lineup protection doesn’t mean a thing.
I’m surprised how down on Crawford everyone is. I will probably own him on every team I draft this year. He had a few bad months, was injured, was out of the trop for the 1st time, and his BABIP ended up just south of .300 vs his career BABIP of .328. Most of this I’m willing to cut him a break for. Crawford post break was basically his old self minus some some average and a couple of stolen bases. (again, driven by BABIP imo. Can’t steal if you’re not on 1st base (as a member of the Red Sox at least… I don’t think he tried to steal 3rd once all year)
that he had a 290 obp despite a 300 babip is abjectly terrible. i buy him as a regression candidate, absolutely, but part of the deal with players like crawford is that they develop:
A. power
B. walks
to compensate for their loss of speed as they age. the wrist doesn’t make me feel good about A and nothing about anything in his past makes me feel good about B.
i…think i;d rather target chris young and maybe even (gag) drew stubbs three or so rounds after he’s going in yahoo.
I like this article a lot! Well done.
I ain’t picking Ubaldo. Why? 1. Because the fall from grace is steep. If his arm was totally sound, do you think the Rockies would have let him go? And 2. Because pitching is like surfing – either you ride the wave or you get swallowed up by the surf. I got my binoculars out, but I can’t see Ubaldo. Vernon Wells or Alex Rios? How about neither. Adam Lind? Anyone on the Twins? The list goes on and on.
How many times have you found yourself saying, “boy was I glad I played draft policeman!” Compare that with how many times you said “I just couldn’t let that guy fall any further!” or “I just couldn’t let that guy go for such a cheap price!” And how’d that work out for you?
ubaldo wanted to be traded, and didn’t let the team put him on the DL to ensure he would be… a very unique situation
In 2009, Ellsbury hit 8 home runs and was one of the most valuable earners in terms of fantasy value in the American League. To short change him because you think the power is fleeting (which may or may not be true) is short-sighted.
I think the dissatisfation w/ taking Ellsbury in round 1 (even though .300-14-100-65-40 is first round value) is that you can get a lot of guys who give you similar HR/SB at a much lower price. BJ Upton and Stubbs can both match Ells in HR/SB/runs + RBI (while killing your AVG). Maybin is also in that area. Towards the end of the draft you have Pagan and Tabata who should go .280-10-30.
People undervalue players who have more steals than HR. If J-up goes .285-30-20 people do backflips, but if Ells goes .300-15-50 people say “I can get that later in the draft” (even though they really can’t).
i’m with you on Lincecum. I’m a Giants fan and it’s noticeable that over the years he isn’t the Cy Young lock he use to be
BUT to me, right now it’s just a gamble. Would you bet on Lincecum being the next best pitcher of this generation and over come this little slump where the value of his fastball has dropped? Or is he just gonna continue gonna be a great pitcher but not other worldly.
I would not gamble my first few picks on him
I checked out hittrackeronline and looked at Ellsbury. In the AL, he was tied for 5th place for what are considered “No Doubt,” home runs, with 8 HR that were considered long gone. Conversely, he was tied for only 13th place in the AL for “Just Enough,” home runs with 4. That’s very interesting. Not even Jose Bautista, Mark Reynolds or Curtis Granderson could claim those ratios among the home runs they hit. Ellsbury hit 34 HR last year. That means that only 11.7% of the HR he hit were just enough to get over the wall. Bautista? 25.5% were just enough. Granderson? 24.3% Tell me that doesn’t cook your noodle… I never would have thought that to be the case… Know what else cooked my noodle? Guess who led MLB with “Just Enough,” home runs last year… Miguel Cabrera with 16, or 53.3% of his HR total… Think about that. It means that 88.3% of Ellsbury’s HR were in the category of “No Doubt,” or “Plenty,” according to the site’s terminology. That hardly sounds like a guy who will singificantly regress. Morever, it may be that he learned to turn on fastballs sooner, based on where he hit those HR and how far they went.
Agreed. But stop saying ‘cook your noodle’.
honestly, those are surprising results.
the only criticism i have is that your argument rests on the assumption that he’ll continue to hit fastballs as effectively as he did without any regression (2011 wFB value: 30, previous high: 3) and continue to see fastballs as much as he did (60% last year which, compared to other elite sluggers is high).
Looking further a bit further, we can see that his SwStr% and Contact% have been consistent (and consistently very good). The major shift is the his O-Contact% has gone from 48.8% to 56% to 61.7% over the last three years. That seems dramatic to me, and I wonder if it has anything to do with the decline. Also, the values of his fastball(s) and changeup have decreased dramatically, even while his velocities have been consistent.
Looking at only his fastballs’ Vertical vs. Horizontal Movement from 2011 and then from 2009 (probably his best season), it does look he lost some movement.
I’m not well-versed enough to know what the likely causes are of this loss of movement, or if it’s reversible, but it seems these pieces of evidence corroborate Howard’s case?
Everybody thought Bautista was a fluke when he started hitting bombs too. The reason you can’t find data that suggests Ellsbury’s numbers are unsustainable is because they’re not. If you watched Ellsbury last year, you could see that something was different about him. I could see Ellsbury being even better this year. He was robbed of the MVP last year and he’ll be motivated to win it. Ellsbury is gonna hit 30 bombs and steal 50 bases this year.
that’s a bold prediction! 80 HR+SB is gonna be pretty damn tough. i think an over/under of 70 is much more realistic, and still a tad optimistic. i’ve got him at 22HR/46SB = 68 HR+SB, and even that is pretty wishful. i’ll be avoiding jacoby unless he slips to me with my 28th pick.
28th?
ya, not a chance
You do realize that Ellsbury has stolen 70 bases in a season before.
I’m sorry I just don’t believe that the lineup for Crawford will determine his stats like this. Sure it would affect his RBI totals if he hit 3rd but the “protection in the lineup” excuse is getting kind of lame. Granted would I take him in the 4th round? Probably not but anything after the 6th I would easily grab him.
All fair points on Lincecum, but the problem is that he set the bar so high for himself at such a young age that it would be tough for anyone to match the stats he put up. Yes, his K% and BB% are trending in the wrong direction, but that is being based off of Cy Young seasons. He is still striking out a batter per inning and hitters do not make contact. His fastball velocity actually improved from 2010 to 2011. I overpaid for him in a keeper league last year and I’m still keeping him for 2012 at a high price. He’s a stud… I mean freak.
Ellsbury’s numbers made Yaz’s numbers look pretty cheap for a triple crown winner. Batting leadoff and putting up middle of the order stats he should have won the MVP. What happens if he puts up similar stats this year? Everyone gonna jump on the Ellsbury band wagon? I’m all ready there.
he’s going in the first round…you’re hardly alone on the bandwagon bud.
much prefer this instalment to the last. as i said before, i’ll always argue that the best value can be stolen in the earlier rounds (often simply by avoiding picking someone). good analysis, thanks.
Here are some arguing comments for arguement sake because I actually agree with with you on all 3 when considering their ADPs. I’m loving that some people are taking Jacoby over CarGo and J Upton! From the data I’ve seen from Ellsbury last year, only 1 or 2 of his HRs went over 400 feet, not a whole lot of confidence in his power, expect 15, not 30.
As far as Crawford, he’s certainly not going in the 3rd or 4th round unless you’re in a 20 team league. With his track record, he deserves a chance to relax and rebound. He may go 15-40.
It’s not ok if your K rate has declined the last 4 years unless your K rate 4 years ago was well over 10 and now it’s still over 9. You can take CC and his wins, I’ll take Lincecum and his ERA and Ks. Remember, Posey is back, Sandoval is becoming a beast and Melky might actually add something to this offense. He’s no longer a top 3 option, but 5 or 6 is about right with 16-17 wins.
Minor quibble: if Lincecum’s K/9 goes from 10.51 to 10.42 to 9.79 to 9.12, isn’t that a drop in three straight seasons, not four? It rose to 10.51, then dropped, dropped, and dropped. Same w/ his BB/9 — only 2 years of increase, not 3.
Talking about the “usual power numbers” of a player who had a power breakout in his third full season is begging the question just a tad bit, innit?
Just to piggyback on the hittracker discussion, Ellsbury 2011 hit just 16% lucky/justenough homers. The mean is 27%, so 16% says he was unlucky to not have hit MORE. Also, just to ruin the Mauer comparison, Mauer’s 2009 fluke was fueled by a 40% lucky/justenough homer binge. So let’s say in 2011 he should have hit 35HR, but that so far in his prime he’s moreso looked like a 9HR guy. That averages to 22HR, which I use as his fair projection. The projection systems have him down for roughly 18HR. To project for anything less than 22 I feel is significantly downplaying his peak season. He’s just 28 for most of 2012. High 20’s HR is a realistic possibility.
I’m not sure Stubbs/BJ are fair comparisons, other than 2 categories. BA is so noticable compared to RBI/R, but look at the projections and you quickly realize the bottom line: Stubbs/BJ are such worse real life hitters that their RBI/R are putrid.
A lot also just depends on your league: in an expert league, there might be hidden value in Ellsbury if everyone thinks he’s overvalued. In my league, I have no shot at him because someone else will overpay even on a projection of 30HR/50SB.
Howard,
I am with you on Lincecum…..I prefer Greinke or Hamels over him in NL-Only leagues this season.
In mixed leagues, I see the point in Ellsbury. It’s pointing out that in A.L.-only that Ellsbury was the top earning hitter in 2009 back when he was a single digit HR hitter. You don’t want to overreach for him, but you also don’t want to let him slip too far on your lists. There’s a lot of value wrapped up in his R/SB/RBI/BA.