Brennan Boesch started the season as a fantasy sleeper for many people. He was to bat second for the Tigers, which he has in 14 games, with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder hitting after him. He looked to be great source of Runs and maybe a bump in batting average as he would see better pitches to hit. Some people even predicted him to be a top 30 fantasy player. His season so far has been a disappointment with him hitting .213 and scoring a total of five runs. Today, I am going to look to see if he can be the fantasy player some people envisioned.

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On Saturday, I took an early look at the 10 starting pitchers who have seen their average fastball velocity increase the most. Since velocity tends to gradually increase into the summer, I wanted to only capture the pitcher’s last start, and decided to use the “Last 7 Days” Split filter. In fact, there is a far greater number of starters whose velocity is down than whose velocity is up. Today, I will use that same method, but instead focus on the 10 starters whose velocity has declined the most. This is not the list you want to see your fantasy starter on!

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Here at Fangraphs, we have been writing quite a few articles on the fastball speeds (here and here and here and here). The main reason for the articles is that fastball speeds stabilize fairly quickly. They can be used to understand how a pitcher may perform in the future because fastball speed is directly related to both strikeout rates and runs allowed. With this knowledge, I am going to look at how a few pitchers, that saw their velocity drop in 2011, are doing in 2012.

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Sometimes us stats guys get accused of relying solely on esoteric metrics and watching nary a baseball game. Obviously, I cannot speak for everyone, but I would bet this is far from the truth. Though I am clearly not a professional scout, there are still easy things I can see on TV from a pitcher that can help us project his performance going forward. One of these is the pitcher’s velocity. We have learned that an increase of about 0.5 miles per hour in a pitcher’s fastball results in a similar gain of 0.5 in strikeout rate. Yesterday, I watched a lot of Jake Arrieta’s start, and as I type this, I am watching Ubaldo Jimenez pitch.

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In the last of my posts trying to translate my look at the predictability of pitchers’ spring peripherals into actionable advice, I examine those pitchers whose walk rates were much higher than their Steamer projections for the regular season. These are the guys there might be some cause for concern, as opposed to the potential BB% improvers, whose spring hint at a potential step forward with their control.

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Jason Bay is owned in 32% of Yahoo leagues. Those 32% must not be Mets fans.

If you’ve been watching Bay in the blue and orange, there hasn’t been much to like for two years now. Well, his strikeout and walk rates have held steady so far, but it’s the power that disappeared and never came back, and it was the power that put all those zeroes on his last contract. Maybe that home run derby appearance was a harbinger — since his last year with the Red Sox, Bay has hit fewer fly balls and more ground balls every year. And his isolated power has come down from his peak to his nadir accordingly.

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Piggybacking off of Howard Bender’s post from earlier last week, I am going to follow up with three more players that I wouldn’t draft this year either. Sometimes guys fall to you and you have almost no choice but to take them, but these are three guys I won’t be following closely on draft day.

Adam Lind: While I like his opportunity to rack up the RBIs in the middle of what should be a potent Toronto lineup, most of Lind’s game is lackluster and worrisome. Yes, he has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the past three years, but his dwindling average and poor on base skills lead to plenty of easy outs on Lind’s end. In leagues that account for average he is bad and if they account for OBP he is worse. With only one season with a wRC+ over 100, Lind is a below average hitter compared to the league and is far below average compared to first basemen. His best traits, his homers and his RBI total, are not even tremendously impressive.
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Twice in the past few days, Howard Bender (whose name I cannot hear without imagining this) has provided a list of guys he will not draft in 2012.

I wanted to add my own list, but with an ottoneu twist. I’ll just add a note that I am very specifically saying I won’t draft these guys. At the right price, I would have held onto any of them as keepers, and I actually have the first one on one of my rosters because his price is so low. And so, without further ado…

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Well, since the last installment received so much attention — both positive and negative — I figured we should have another go-around here.  Only this time, in an effort to create more dialogue and draw even more of your ire, I took the advice from some of you and looked more towards the upper rounds of the draft.  Personally, I think telling you not to waste your time with a particular player in the lower rounds is a bit more helpful than this — sure, there’s less risk in the 19th round and you don’t care if you eventually drop the guy, but why waste the pick in the first place?  But alas, this is what you asked for my dear RotoGraphs readers and this is what you get… Read the rest of this entry »

OK, so the language in the title might be a bit inflammatory.  I can’t, with 100% certainty, say that I absolutely, positively won’t draft these guys, but based on the current chatter and their ADP rankings, they will not be targets for me.  Now, if they somehow slipped a few rounds and it looks like they could, potentially, be a bargain, then I might think otherwise, but that’s a pretty big “if” for me right now.  Here’s who I’m avoiding… Read the rest of this entry »